The Next President?

Both sets of candidates debated last night in New Hampshire.. two entertaining debates, although how much they impact the race is open to question..

Republicans were first up and the story of the debate really was the focus on Romney, who seems to be disliked by every other Republican candidate.. couple of testey exchanges with McCain. I thought both of them held their ground well enough (McCain managed to get in a shot at Romney's fortune not being able to buy the truth). It was abundantly clear again that McCain's achilles heal is immigration, an issue he seems decidedly uncomfortable talking about. He sounded confusing talking about it (think he confused himself actually!); remember, it was this very issue that almost single-handedly derailed his campaign last time. Huckabee managed to stay above the fray most of the night, and neither he nor Giuliani really got into it, both of them happy to see McCain and Romney slit each other's throats.. that said, Huckabee made a complete hash of most of the foreign policy discussion, and were he to somehow become the nominee, would be completely exposed on his complete lack of knowledge of foreign affairs. In fact, I am increasingly coming to view him as the most dangerous possibility as president, a position long held by Rudy Giuliani who, to put it bluntly, is an authoritarian.

Real fireworks didn't occur till after the debate in the media spin room, where a McCain aid went completely beserk.. in many ways, it's more entertaining listening to the aide's (many of whom spent most of the actual debate watching an American football match!) saying the thing's the candidates won't dare to say.. interestingly enough, Huckabee's crew didn't even show up in the media room, allowing the McCain/Romney fight to consume the media (which it would have done anyway).

On to the Democrats, all of whom seemed absolutely knackered. The first notable aspect of this debate was the fact that Obama has now completely assumed the mantle of front-runner; I thought he gave a solid performance, but he was very much aided by his sidekick/attack dog John Edwards. Edwards had a choice to make coming into this debate, and it was clear what he was going to do within two minutes when he opened his first broadside on Hillary ("agents of change will always be opposed by the status quo"). To his credit, he was the most passionate all night, mentioning the phrase "war on the middle class" an unbelievable amount of times. His strategy is clearly to try to brush aside Hillary, to set up a straight match race with Obama. Basically formed a de facto tag-team with Obama all night. Hillary held her own without seriously denting Obama. With regards to her charisma, I have long been of the opinion that she is most likable when acting like a woman every now and then, which was born out again last night. When asked about why many didn't consider her likable, she displayed a charm all too rarely seen on the campaign trail. It's not an easy line for a woman to tow mind you, the difference between likability and weakness..

Clinton campaign definitely hitting Obama harder, as you predicted Warbler. They have kept up the change vs. experience angle (where the **** else can they go?), though the volume has been raised a fair bit. Lot of in-fighting in the campaign, with a lot of people questioning the viability of chief strategist Mark Penn, who masterminded the "inevitability" strategy that has now so spectacularly backfired..
 
Democratic Primaries - New Hampshire Primary

Barack Obama - 1.36-1.39
Hillary Clinton - 3.8 - 4.4

Political Betting.com

Clinton’s price eases after more polls and the debate
January 6th, 2008

Once again it is the fights for the main party nominations in the 2008 White House race that dominate the political betting news. After Thursday night’s Iowa caucuses the next big decision point is New Hampshire where the first proper primaries take place on Tuesday.

The Democrat betting has seen big changes over the past 24 hours with Hillary Clinton moving from her odds-on favourite position to second favourite across almost all markets. As at 0530 GMT the Obama price on the Betfair exchange was 0.82/1 with Clinton out to 1.28/1. The US specialists Intrade have Obama at 55.5 out of 100 and Clinton at 41.

There might be possible value to be had with the traditional UK bookmakers which have yet to adjust their prices in line with the developing news. There is a wide range of betting options on the upcoming primaries.

A major political development has been reaction to the Saturday night debates between the contenders. This was a key opportunity for Hillary to regain the initiative but from the reaction of voters in the Frank Luntz focus group, click the link in the picture, it did not help.

There’s been a spate of post-Iowa polls for New Hampshire one showing a 10% Obama lead. Others have ranged between a tie and just one per cent.

In the GOP race things continue to look good for the 71 year old Senator from Arizona - John McCain who now has leads of between five and six points.

If this comes down to a battle between the existing favourites there will be an age gap of a quarter of a century between the nominees.

Mike Smithson
 
Interesting stuff TS.

Today's polls seem tohave tightend up giving Obama a small lead, although the seocnd Rassmussen one has him 12 points clear now. All the others tend have him about 1 or 2 pts ahead.

Huckerbee is the most dangrous candidate by a country mile, reminds me of Ross Perot. Christ the man didn't even know where Pakistan was, but then Governor Bush didn't know who their Presidsent was either. Rudy might very well be autocratic, but one thing he isn't, is stupid. He is prone to odd impulsive decision though, and has the capacity to do something spectacularly silly in his pursuit of trying to do, rather than fudge.

I'm sure on the democrats side you're watching a classic case of 3 way squeeze. Hillary's money will keep her in the race, and you've got to think Edwards will be the first out now. I'm not sure where his vote would naturally gravitate to, but if he's able to dent Clinton, there has to be a good chance her support will be more likely to head his way
 
New Hampshire Democratic Primary
Tuesday, January 8 | Delegates at Stake: 22
Poll Date Sample Obama Clinton Edwards Richardson Spread
RCP Average 01/02 to 01/05 - 34.3 30.9 18.9 5.4 Obama +3.4
American Res. Group 01/04 - 01/05 600 LV 38 26 20 3 Obama +12.0
Concord Monitor 01/04 - 01/05 400 LV 34 33 23 4 Obama +1.0
CNN/WMUR/UNH 01/04 - 01/05 359 LV 33 33 20 4 Tie
Suffolk/WHDH 01/04 - 01/05 500 LV 33 35 14 5 Clinton +2.0
Rasmussen 01/04 - 01/05 1210 LV 39 27 18 8 Obama +12.0
Zogby Tracking 01/03 - 01/05 844 LV 30 31 20 7 Clinton +1.0
Mason-Dixon 01/02 - 01/04 600 LV 33 31 17 7 Obama +2.0

Rasmussen poll out of kilter indeed.. None of these take into account last night's debate but, to be honest, I don't think it will have a huge impact..

Rudy's certainly not stupid, but there is certainly a hell of a lot of baggage that he brings to the table, especially in a general.

BTW, of all the news organisations in NH, the only one which follows Hillary around virtually full-time is the BBC.. not quite sure what they're playing at..
 
I can only assume that there must be some influential people in the Beeb who cut their 'American teeth' in the 1990's and have fond memories of the Clinton White House. Their coverage is blatantly biased, and they certainly wouldn't be allowed to get away with such partisan reporting in a UK election. It's almost as if there's a loophole in their constitution, as there's no shortage of American overseas voters living here who are being spun a pro-Hillary line, but being a foreign election perhaps they enjoy more latitude in setting an agenda.

The Iowa caucus was headlines on the Thursday, but the result was about the fourth item on the Friday. Even then, I'm not sure they reported that she was beaten into third? (they must have done surely?) I just can't recall a picture of Edwards. The line seemed to be that Obama had narrowly beaten Hillary but that she will win New Hampshire, and then they started looking for historical precedents. Even ITV (which I've long felt is a mere 1 step above John Craven's Newsround) ran a more accurate and analytical piece than the BBC. It's one of the reasons I'm convinced that UK bookies had got her so short. She remains a deeply unpopular woman, and probably unelectable, yet our media have been pumping out pro-Hillary stories for about a year, and consequently our punters have reacted and shortend her up.
 
I'd have to disagree with you Warbler on how the books are formed. Its got nothing to do with "European opinion". Hillary has drifted on the exchanges and on the spreads in accordance with the polls. lets not forget that in your own words -


Jul 4 2007, 11:18 PM -
If Clinton can't carry New Hampshire then she's got a lot to worry about? It's natural territory for her afterall, if she can't landslide it, she's in trouble. I expect her to win comfortably.
Click to expand...



She had been 2.00 on Betfair when betting opened a couple of weeks ago. It has never been so easy to get access to up to date polls in any major election or information on whats been printed in the America press. One click onto Real Clear Politics will quickly tell you Hillary is no longer flavour of the month. A Betfair market with good liquidity would be a better indicator of the election result than any other source
 
:laughing:

It is a rather unfortunate feature of this thread (I read the whole lot back recently) that I seem to have contradicted myself, and flip flopped with an alarming regularity. I think some of them were down to typos and concentration, where I actually put something polar opposite to what I felt, but for the most part there's some shockers in there. I came to the conclusion that I haven't got a clue what I'm on about :laughing:
 
Thats not my point. I'm saying that the markets are corrrect most of the time. I've read it back as well. Boyles going 2/1 Hillary and VC 25/1 McCain where the only two ricks you will find. That and the "gamble" on Al Gole but thats standard get in the racing post story.

6/4 Barack Obama
5/2 Hillary Clinton
7/1 Rudolph Giuliani
7/1 John McCain

The Race is Now Obama's to Lose - David Broder, Washington Post

If I had formed a financial exposure against Hillary as my opinion suggested last year I would now be laying Obama at 6/4. I'm sure its not as clear cut as the prices suggest.
 
Where are you quoting that from An Capall? I hate to show up a friend for a liar but I expect an apology.
 
Hard to see any significant surprises tommorrow night, to be honest. Obama has been drawing massive crowds throughout the state, hasn't made any significant gaffes, and is merely riding the tidal wave of momentum his win in Iowa has generated. Noted your comment about candidates falling out of favor after too long in the public eye, Warbler, and while we've all seen it time and time again, the fact is Obama is nowhere near that saturation point tbh. As for Hillary, the situation looks remarkebly similar to Iowa demographically, in that she has simply failed to attract any support any the youth or independent vote (the latter of which usually decides who wins the state). Also interesting to note that polls suggest 55% of independent's intend to vote in the Democratic primary. Very important endorsement for Obama to pick up today was the Culinary Workers Union, which virtually makes him a lock to win the Nevada primary. Really is Obama's race to lose at this point.

Wouldn't be surprised at all if the Republican race was tighter than the Democratic, given that McCain's poll numbers seem to have flatlined over the weekend (Romney was very strong in the GOP debate last night), though he's still about 5 points clear. It has been fascinating to watch the effect of Obama's momentum on the Republican race. Mitt Romney has spent the weekend trying to picture himself as the Obama of the Republican race (despite being the candidate of big business...) and McCain as a "washington insider" and, to be frank, he has been fairly successful.

Hillary's really pulling out all the stops, from the Majoresque "bullhorn" (what a word eh!) to the call from Bill during an event, to almost shedding a tear this morning at a town hall..
 
Nah.... she's an android, and she can help it.

It's difficult to see how Obama can be stopped now, as the momentum looks certain to carry him through. Americans like to back winners, it's part of their national pysche to associate with success, and bandwagons become all important. I tend to think we by contrast associate more readily with the plucky under dog.

Obama hasn't been in the cross hairs long enough, what I was suggesting is that Clinton had. I also felt that people had pretty well made their minds up about Hillary years ago, and she was always unelectable in the college. I still have a feeling though that as D day looms up in November, people will start getting nervous about a President Obama, at the moment it's too distant for them to really contemplate and it's more exciting to ride the wave of the possibility.

I can't foresee him failing to win the nomination now short of a 'spectacular' but also feel that a credible Republican of substance and forensic intellect could start to wobble him as the race for the White House rather than the convention nears. As things stand though, there's only one candidate who I think could do that, and he comes with more baggage than a Heathrow carousel. You need to go back nearly 50 years for the last time America elected a Senator and as imminence starts to focus the mind in the Autumn, I can foresee someone with a track record of political management rather than simply voting, eating into his lead.
 
Another thoroughly predictable result :what: Who'd be an Amercian pollster.

I was wondering last night whether Obama might just be plugging into a temporary populiast sentiment amongst a largely disenfranchised cohort in the population, and that as the gravity of an inexperienced Senator becoming President started to dawn on the people, that they then might start getting cold feet and look towards someone more experienced in political management rather than simply voting in the Senate. However, I thought these reservations would more likely surface after he'd won the nomination and the electorate's mind started to focus on his lack of substance, as he was subjected to a more forensic examination of his credentials etc I certainly didn't foresee it happening quite so soon. Having said that both sides can claim momentum still.

I think what's becoming apparent after the early skirmishes is that when Obama gets a chance he can clearly out campaign the largely wooden Clinton, but this requires him to be on the ground with reasonable lead times to make his impression. Super dooper Tuesday will of course deny him this as he won't be able to impact so dynamically given the amounbt of simulataneous ballots taking place, and the necessaity to be in 6 places at once. You've got to think now that such a format plays to Clinton's strengths (or rather minimises her exposure to his).

Still another bizzarre twist in this notoriously volatile electorate.

Might be time to start thinking in terms of backing Guiliani for the Republican nomination. Romney looks to be the most wounded now. McCain can't seriosuly be Presidential material, and God forbid Huckerbee. Where as the Dem's seem to have credible candidate sgalore the Rep's look to have a serious dearth of talent
 
Or was it having her husband and daughter nearly in tears also that helped swing a few votes? I wonder what the Obama camp make of this latest twist in the tale?
 
While she may be "wooden" and she may have been helped by those tears (which I didnt find false) equally she is one heck of a candidate and debator.

Warbler you suggest the BBC is very partial to HC but there is absolutely no doubt the American press when into Obama overdrive pumping these polls out (10 point plus leads etc). They completely got caught up in the hype that is Obama rather than ask the hard questions of him rather than just let him talk about this mysterious thing called "change".

Clinton should probably struggle in South Carolina but this win will be a massive boost to her funding and puts her in fine shape for the big Tuesday in Feb.
 
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