The Oaks

Diamond Geezer

Diamond Geezer

Gone But Not Forgotten
Joined
May 2, 2003
Messages
13,884
Qatar Racing Ltd have bought fifty per cent of the Oaks favourite Secret Gesture with the filly set to carry the Sheikh Fahad Al Thani silks.
 
Spencer has landed a great job with the Qatari's could be the best gig in racing in five years.
 
I'll go for Liber Nauticas. The top jockey on board and it matters.

Be good for Stoutey aswell.
 
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Banoffee 101++
Moth 107++
Secret Gesture 113++

It's hard to see beyond this trio. Far too many of the trials have been contested by very low-rated types so it's hard to take the form too seriously.

Banofee put up a decent time when hacking up in her Chester trial over about this trip so there are no stamina worries and she proved she can shift late on. However, that was against lesser opponents.

Moth ran on well enough at the end of the Guineas - a proper trial - and looked for all the world like she was using that race as her main prep for this. With considerable improvement likely on this step up in trip, she is hard to kick out of the first two.

My vote, though, goes to Secret Gesture. I have her putting up a very creditable time in the Lingfield trial and she did it incredibly easily. If she can find 7lbs improvement for that outing then Moth with have to find entirely abnormal improvement to overtake her. It isn't beyond the realms of possibility, given her connections, but it is still a bit of a task. These two are disputing favouritism at the moment and I wouldn't be surprised if Moth emerged as the clear market leader on the day so I'm prepared to wait until then to see if I can get 3/1 or better.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Banoffee 101++
Moth 107++
Secret Gesture 113++

It's hard to see beyond this trio. Far too many of the trials have been contested by very low-rated types so it's hard to take the form too seriously.

Banofee put up a decent time when hacking up in her Chester trial over about this trip so there are no stamina worries and she proved she can shift late on. However, that was against lesser opponents.

Moth ran on well enough at the end of the Guineas - a proper trial - and looked for all the world like she was using that race as her main prep for this. With considerable improvement likely on this step up in trip, she is hard to kick out of the first two.

My vote, though, goes to Secret Gesture. I have her putting up a very creditable time in the Lingfield trial and she did it incredibly easily. If she can find 7lbs improvement for that outing then Moth with have to find entirely abnormal improvement to overtake her. It isn't beyond the realms of possibility, given her connections, but it is still a bit of a task. These two are disputing favouritism at the moment and I wouldn't be surprised if Moth emerged as the clear market leader on the day so I'm prepared to wait until then to see if I can get 3/1 or better.
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How do You rate the musidora?
 
The problem I have with the Musidora is that the first three were rated 86, 85 and 79 respectively and the time was on a par with those kinds of marks. The book also says the form of the top filly on ORs "was questionable" and suggested she blew up here. The only other one with an OR higher than the winner was detached last at the line. I think the likes of Timeform and RPR have taken their normal approach and rated the race in the light of past races rather than taking this as perhaps a very poor renewal (which the ORs suggest it may have been).

I'd be inclined to rate the race via the fifth (OR85), which would put the winner on 99 (same as ORs). I have it only 79 on time.
 
Desert Orchid said:
My vote, though, goes to Secret Gesture. I have her putting up a very creditable time in the Lingfield trial and she did it incredibly easily.
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I'd be very wary of attempting to assess Secret Gesture's time. It was chucking it down throughout the day and accurate time analysis in those circumstances is almost impossible.

Respect her chance, though. I like her stablemate Talent as well but Liber Nauticus is the one for me. I just thought she ran at York like she'd improve hugely for the experience. The longer trip will suit and a stronger pace - if she gets it - would help as well.
 
I try not to set too much store by times and this would be no exception. It was creditable but not in the same league as the likes of Ramruma's or Ouija Board's. I'm more swayed by the manner in which she beat better horses than the winners of the other trials.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm more swayed by the manner in which she beat better horses than the winners of the other trials.
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As I say, I respect Secret Gesture's chance but the Musidora was the better field based on official ratings and the race at Lingfield simply fell apart with several pulling for their heads and the second fav, the only filly rated above 88, virtually unrideable. She thrashed them, mind, but several of her rivals tomorrow would have done exactly the same and she's shorter than all of them. She's got a good chance tomorrow but she's not for me at the prices.
 
gus said:
As I say, I respect Secret Gesture's chance but the Musidora was the better field based on official ratings
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Was it, though?

The next home in the Musidora were 85 and 79.
In the Lingfield trial they were 93, no rating and 88; the one without the rating had been less than three lengths behind Banoffee before that won so impressively at Chester.

gus said:
the race at Lingfield simply fell apart with several pulling for their heads and the second fav, the only filly rated above 88, virtually unrideable.
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What is the difference between a race falling apart and a race that's just poor form, though?

gus said:
She thrashed them, mind, but several of her rivals tomorrow would have done exactly the same
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That's just speculation, though, isn't it? The horse beaten 10 lengths in a hack canter by SG was less than 3 behind Banoffee the time before Chester. Liber Nauticus got a strong pace to chase at York but only really got on top late on of a horse that had won a handicap off 77 the time before. I reckon you could more convincingly argue that Secret Gesture would have thrashed that level of opposition based on her Lingfield performance.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Was it, though?

The next home in the Musidora were 85 and 79.
In the Lingfield trial they were 93, no rating and 88; the one without the rating had been less than three lengths behind Banoffee before that won so impressively at Chester.
.
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And next time out finished 3rd in the Italian Oaks.

Admittedly that race normally falls a fair way short of its Epsom equivalent, although the first 2 home could turn out to be quite smart and purely on collateral form Secret Gesture would have won the race pulling a cart.

5/2 is a more than fair price IMO especially as she certainly won't mind any softening of the ground and should handle the track at least as good - if not better - than anything else in the race.

JOB's comments about Moth preferring a flatter track than Newmarket put me off her and I'm in the same camp as many who feel the race may come a bit too early in the career of Liber Nauticus, who unlike the jolly also needs to prove she can adapt to a track like this.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
That's just speculation, though, isn't it?
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Of course it is. In the end, it's all speculation/opinion. It's a forum after all.

I think Secret Gesture has a very good chance tomorrow but she's favourite to do so. I'm looking to oppose her and I'll either be proved right or wrong. I happen to think that her credentials are flimsy.

Three of her opponents at Lingfield had official ratings: 93, 88 and 73. As you point out, another had finished fourth to Banoffee at Newbury but that was a slowly-run race and as subsequent events have shown the overall form of that Newbury maiden isn't worth a light.

All five of Liber Nauticus' rivals at York had official ratings: 104, 94, 85, 85 and 79. Overall, I think it was the better field.

Secret Gesture thrashed her rivals. Liber Nauticus was merely workmanlike. If you think Miss You Too ran to her mark of 93 at Lingfield then you'll have Secret Gesture down as a good thing tomorrow. For reasons already stated, I don't think Miss You Too did any such thing and in my view you only have to watch the race to see why. I think the race "fell apart" but if you'd rather I called a spade a spade then I'll happily describe it as "poor form."

I don't think LN goes into tomorrow's race with significantly better credentials. I think they're slightly better but she's 5.2 on Betfair at the minute, not far off twice the price of SG (3.3). That's why I'm backing Liber.
 
The form book questioned the merit of that 104, though, and the filly clearly didn't run anywhere near it behind LN so I'd want to throw that out.

Hopefully one of us will be right tomorrow. It will be just our luck if Moth comes and does us.
 
Liber Nauticus is closely related to Leger winner Conduit, and her Musidora form adds to the suspicion she may not have the speed for this. Secret Gesture could be anything, but equally, could be not much at all.
Moth ran 3rd behind 2 classic winners - as good form as there is in the race - and looks certain to improve again for the step up in trip.
 
I think Secret Gesture has the best form in the book and will be the best suited the conditions ( ground, course and distance). 5/2 not a bad price.

Moth the main danger, but some doubts about the ground,
And algo really strange hoy se has been campaigned since her debut.
 
Poor Conduit. Two Breeders Cup Turfs, a King George and creditable runs in an Arc and Eclipse and yet he gets reduced to the slow Leger-winner stereotype.
 
Ballymacoll rarely waste their time with Classic entries. I believe this is their first English Classic runner since the already mentioned Conduit (who on Derby day 2008 won a 10f handicap rather smartly before his stable companion ran 2nd in the Derby). So I'm on Liber Nauticus, she's straightforward and has a turn of foot.
Talent as an outsider as I think she's underrated.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Poor Conduit. Two Breeders Cup Turfs, a King George and creditable runs in an Arc and Eclipse and yet he gets reduced to the slow Leger-winner stereotype.
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I'm aware of Conduit's record; I'm also aware that - as a nascent 3yo - he didn't have the speed to win a King Edward V11 and was all out to scrape home in the dying strides of a poor Gordon Stakes.
The pace and the ground may be such that LN won't have that problem, her Musidora form clearly indicates she might.
 
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Being true to your name I'd say. The King Edward VII was a fast finishing 2nd after being baulked and not one of Moore's finest rides. I think he was named as the unluckiest loser of week. But you are right the Gordon Stakes win wasn't that inspiring, but was the 3rd race in 7 weeks of a rapidly improving colt. But Azamour won the James Palace Stakes and that should make her speedier than her uncle.
 
Talent E/w, by tthe sire of the moment, her form is n't spectacular but the further they go the better she'll be.
 
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