The plumpton novice chase

H

HawkWing

At the Start
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Mar 17, 2009
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Having been very impressed with Knockanuss at Newbury I was very interested in todays novice chase. Gary Moore, Plumpton, Free running, fine jumping front runner tight track, it all added up. It will take a good horse to keep up with him. 3/1 available with bet365 against unknown quantity from Frrance. Not too much of a surprise to see him punted into favouritism in many places.

HOWEVER

I think that he is overrated and the unknown quantity from France is being completely underestimated and is the bet. Master Dino is a bona fide grade 1 performer. The form of the Newbury race has been ripped to pieces over the last weeks. Macaire coming down this route with a horse he claims to be far better than Terrefort. I was keen to see his last chase win to see if there was any substance. He did win by 30l so how much could you learn. So https://twitter.com/equidia/status/1068504345568776192
The question I was asking myself watching this as he jumps the last was 'how does he win this by 30l?'. Havent had my eye knocked out quite as much in a long while. Have no idea of what was behind but its obvious that the horse has real gears, which I think Knockanuss will need to be a grade 1 performer to beat him. Going to take out ante post insurance for Master Dino today.

Edit: Master Dino gets weight today.
 
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Master Dino not an unknown quantity to anyone who follows French jumps, tbf.

Dino opened Evs last night, and spots of 13/8 available this morning. I’ve been filling-up for today, and snaring as much of double-figures for JLT, as I can stomach.

I respect Knocknanuss, but he would have been rated at least a stone below Dino over hurdles, and I’m expecting class to prevail.
 
Races tend to be run at a fairly sedate pace at Auteuil, HW, and I suspect MD just had plenty more left in the tank than the placers. Nothing can be gleaned from the race in form-terms, other than he still has a wheel on each corner, and jumped round fine.......the previous form of the placed horses amounts to very little.
 
I don't know...

It's obvious this horse should win a mile and if he were trained by NJH or WPM etc he'd probably be shorter than 1/2.

So why are some bookies so keen to 'get' him?

Do they have info we're not privy to?

Seriously, if this gets beat it will stink to the high heavens.
 
There was a whole heap of hype about Knockanuss after Newbury, went off at a million miles and hour and found more when asked against a bunch of potentially promising animals. He is the right type trained by the right trainer for the race, and he has plenty of talent. Normally wouldnt be meeting Master Dino though in the race. The horses behind have done nothing for the form since. All have flopped and the race took little winning looking from hindsight. I was hoping that he would be overbet.
 
Market is guessy at the mo.

Agree, DO......horse would be much shorter if trained by a UK or Ireland ‘big gun’.
 
Biggest take away - third finished very close without trying. Maybe the first two went racing a furlong and a half too soon.
 
HawkWing said:
Biggest take away - third finished very close without trying. Maybe the first two went racing a furlong and a half too soon.
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The 3rd was given a good patient ride back in trip. The 4th paid the price up with the first two.
 
I’ve just asked 365 to add the third into the Close Brothers market and they’ve introduced him at 20/1. Not sure I’m interested at that price without NRNB
 
It looked like a decent race in running.

Master Dino won well enough in the end but not really like an odds-on shot. Hard to believe he's better than Terrefort on the basis of that performance.
 
I've had a quick look through the result.

Am I right in assuming the weight MD got yesterday was merely wfa?

If so, it would seem he and the third have run their ORs to the pound. It puts Knocknanuss up 3lbs on his OR, which I think is fair enough.

As for the JLT, it means MD's OR 157 is already higher than the top-rated going into the race last season (Finian's Oscar 153). On my own figures, Shattered Love emerged on 153 and Terrefort on 155 from that race although the latter was 160 on my own ratings going into it.

In 2017 Yorkhill had the highest OR (155) going into it and on my own figures emerged on 159.

So I'd have to say Master Dino is very much in the right ball park for winning that race.
 
I think MD carried a penalty, and Knocknanuss had a double penalty. All the other runners were maiden’s off 10-12.
 
Grasshopper said:
I think MD carried a penalty, and Knocknanuss had a double penalty. All the other runners were maiden’s off 10-12.
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Cheers, GH. If that's the case it will take an above-average performance to prevent him winning the JLT. I can't say I'm tempted right now, though, at 5/1 a/p (or 3/1 NRNB) because it might just be a good year for middle-distance novices.
 
So what would the performance of Good Man Pat look like DO, with regards him running in the Close Brothers off a mark likely to be around 140, or even the Ultima considering King's previous with running novices in it ?
 
Desert Orchid said:
Cheers, GH. If that's the case it will take an above-average performance to prevent him winning the JLT. I can't say I'm tempted right now, though, at 5/1 a/p (or 3/1 NRNB) because it might just be a good year for middle-distance novices.
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I wouldn’t be as bullish myself, DO, but having taken a reasonable ante-post position about Master Dino for the JLT, I hope yer right! :lol:

Lee, Good Man Pat is 20/1 with B365, and 14/1 with Sky (presumably with the NRNB concession applied).

In truth, I didn’t pay a great deal of attention to the placers - for the obvious reason - but it felt like a race where he was patiently-ridden to do exactly that. I’d exercise some caution myself, and likely not take too literal a view of his proximity to the front pair.

If there was a horse to take out the race with a handicap in mind, then it’s surely Glenloe. The ride was so moody, it should have been put on Hormone Replacement Therapy immediately after the race. Ultima off 143 or something is probably the ante-post bet of the Festival!! :lol:
 
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Grasshopper said:
I wouldn’t be as bullish myself, DO, but having taken a reasonable ante-post position about Master Dino for the JLT, I hope yer right! :lol:

Lee, Good Man Pat is 20/1 with B365, and 14/1 with Sky (presumably with the NRNB concession applied).

In truth, I didn’t pay a great deal of attention to the placers - for the obvious reason - but it felt like a race where he was patiently-ridden to do exactly that. I’d exercise some caution myself, and likely not take too literal a view of his proximity to the front pair.

If there was a horse to take out the race with a handicap in mind, then it’s surely Glenloe. The ride was so moody, it should have been put on Hormone Replacement Therapy immediately after the race. Ultima off 143 or something is probably the ante-post bet of the Festival!! :lol:
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Glenloe's jumping didn't inspire confidence.
 
Grasshopper said:
I wouldn’t be as bullish myself, DO, but having taken a reasonable ante-post position about Master Dino for the JLT, I hope yer right! :lol:

Lee, Good Man Pat is 20/1 with B365, and 14/1 with Sky (presumably with the NRNB concession applied).

In truth, I didn’t pay a great deal of attention to the placers - for the obvious reason - but it felt like a race where he was patiently-ridden to do exactly that. I’d exercise some caution myself, and likely not take too literal a view of his proximity to the front pair.

If there was a horse to take out the race with a handicap in mind, then it’s surely Glenloe. The ride was so moody, it should have been put on Hormone Replacement Therapy immediately after the race. Ultima off 143 or something is probably the ante-post bet of the Festival!! :lol:
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Good Man Pat was bought to be a chaser Grass, being a 3m point winner and King was really keen to see him over a fence.

The fact that he still managed to earn an OR of 137 over hurdles - albeit as a novice so caution required - tells me he’s more than capable of bettering 140 (probably by a good few pounds) which means he’d theoretically be that range ahead of the handicapper if lining up in either of the Tuesday handicaps off 140, presuming he gets a 5lb rise this week that should see him make the cut in either race.

The downside is, he’ll probably have to be that far ahead because there will be others who’ll no doubt show similar improvement in March.

Am I interested at 14/1 (or 20/1 without the NRNB clause) ? No, not right now but I certainly won’t be ruling him out of calculations if he’s there on the day.
 
wilsonl said:
So what would the performance of Good Man Pat look like DO, with regards him running in the Close Brothers off a mark likely to be around 140, or even the Ultima considering King's previous with running novices in it ?
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I'll get back to you on that, wilsonl, but the Ultima takes a hell of a winning these days. To win it off 140 nowadays you really need to be verging on at least 155. It's run at Gold Cup pace and anything that doesn't have class/pace will be dead on its feet with a mile to go.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'll get back to you on that, wilsonl, but the Ultima takes a hell of a winning these days. To win it off 140 nowadays you really need to be verging on at least 155. It's run at Gold Cup pace and anything that doesn't have class/pace will be dead on its feet with a mile to go.
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In truth Mo the Ultima was an afterthought of mine as although King has run novices in it before this lad has to-date only had one run over fences (excluding his pointing days) and as well as he jumped around Plumpton that was effectively in his own time and the Ultima would be a completely different test. I do think the extra distance would suit him but mainly it's his chance in the Close Brothers that I'm most interested in.
 
Mister Whitaker went up 8lbs to 145 for winning the CB and went up another 7lb for winning his next race (not a hcap).

The year before Gold Present went up 5lbs for finishing second to Tully East. It's hard to tell how much TE went up because of the difference in ratings between here and Ireland but his next run in the UK was off 10lbs higher despite not running well in between. (Personally I remain suspicious about how he was able to win it so impressively and so heavily punted when he hasn't really backed it up since.)

In 2016 Ballyalton went up 9lbs for beating Bouvreuil half a length. Again, I have to be suspicious about a heavily-bet winner in this race not going on to frank the form.

Maybe the race just takes a lot out of them.

Based on the above, GMP will probably need to be at least 7lbs better than his current mark but surely there will be no shortage of other runners, especially from the bigger stables, thought to have that amount up their sleeves.

Unless I came across one with 10lbs in hand just now I wouldn't want to get involved in this race.
 
Severe blow!
.Sorry for the poor horse and for the end of my I’m a shrewdie smug feeling.
 
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