The RAV System

Tanlic said:
Selecting horses before you see the betting is fraught with danger.

A few years ago I experimented on laying one horse per race using a bot.

The experiment went fantastically well and had as many as 25 consecutive winning bets,

The idea was to lay no hopers large stakes for small profit

So I topped up my Betfair account and when the money arrived I was so exited I went straight on and laid a horse called Benbane head at 16/1 4 hours or so before the rae.

When I log back on a few hours later Ruby's mount fr PN has been withdrawn along with another yoke and in the actual race the 2/1 fav Billy Magern falls when beaten

Benbane Head was returned at 8/1 and won by 7 lengths,

3 races later from a 20 runner field I lay one horse and it wins :0(

For some reason when you play with fun money you always seem to win. The reason being it is fun money so you are fearless.

Playing with real money is never the same.

My question is do you/are you backing these horses for real or not.

The reason I ask is there's a well known poster on TRF who put selections up every day and claims he makes x amount.

He post his selection and prices beforehand and yes over a period of time he shows great profits. He usually puts up anywhere between 3 and 5 horses in the same race.

The only problem is who he claims he bets with.

There is no way on this planet would he get these bets on at the prices he claims.....for example he'll put up something like 30 points at 20/1 with William Hill.

First of if you are winning on a regular basis Willie hill might say you can have a fiver on
at 20/1 and the rest at SP.

Secondly if you are winning like he claims he does they close your account as quick as look at you.

So while I theory he's making money my guess is he's full of crap and doesn't actually bet all of these horse if any which makes making life very easy.

Now the first thing I notice about your system is you are putting up sp's BUT you say it's exchange odds ?

So you are not giving us exchange odds which immediately tells me the prices you are putting up have been altered.

I apologies if I am wrong.

I myself multi dutch but if I put my selection up in every race I bet in the thread would be a mile long in days.

Straight of my spreadsheet todays results and the prices

Uttoxeter Dutch Winner 1.17
Hamilton Dutch Winner 1.20
Ascot Dutch Winner 1.37
Uttoxeter Dutch Winner 1.15
Hamilton Dutch Winner 1.21
Ascot Dutch Winner 1.18
Uttoxeter Dutch Winner 1.16
Hamilton Dutch Winner 1.21
Ascot Dutch Winner 1.22
Uttoxeter Dutch loser 1.30
Hamilton Dutch Winner 1.12
Ascot Dutch Winner 1.25
Uttoxeter Dutch Winner 1.37
Hamilton Dutch Winner 1.27
Uttoxeter Dutch Winner 1.16
Hamilton Dutch Winner 1.09
Ascot Dutch Winner 1.19
Hamilton Dutch Winner 1.15


Total invested was 1457.71

Profit 203.10

Which looks great but the only problem is if a couple of real loud ones had won the races I bet in I would have had a losing day which happens a lot more than I would care to admit.

tbh I have yet to see a system that makes someone rich.

I do multi dutching because it stops me from betting if that makes sense. I do make a profit but I won't be retiring any time soon.

What I don't do is bet blind which you are doing.

What I am trying to say is if you lay a horse early at say 6/1 and it's subject to a massive gamble and by the time the race comes round it's a 5/4 shot there's very little you can do about it except it cross your finger and pray.

I understand you talk about a filter and take it you mean you put a safety net in to reduce loses.

So if it happens you have got out at half or a quarter of you liabilty you can't claim it on here..................So what you are doing is giving us false figures.

In my experience the worst thing you can do is try and get out because you think a horse is about to win or lose.

In one day I lost 400 quid + on horses I tried to get out of to improve my profit.......I got caught 4 times in one day by clicking on the lay button thinking they were beaten and 4 times they won. If I had left it alone I would have actually made a good profit so now I keep well away from my mouse during a race.

Don't get me wrong I'm not having a dig at you personally but I had a belly full of systems on TRF and the arguments it caused........I looked in the other day and the same two idiots are still fighting about it and the moderator is too scared to ban either of them as the daily posts would drop like a stone.

So thanks but no thanks........as far as I am concerned the best way forward is to keep your system to yourself.
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Tanlic

Firstly, thanks for the welcome.

Secondly, the selections that I post on the morning of the race on here, AREN'T backed blindly. They are just the short listed horses. I pointed this out in my first post. They are layed a few minutes before the off, but only if the betting indicates that they may lose and only if I can get betting value.

Am I backing these horses for real? Of course and have been for years - provided that the betting indicates that they will lose and provided that I can get value. These are the filters that I talk about.

I lay these horses on Betdaq so don't need bookies and don't get my account closed.

I quote SPs not exchange odds because the SPs can be verified whereas, if I quoted exchange odds, they could be disputed.

The P/L is based the actual Betdaq odds that were available 2 mins. before the scheduled race start time.

The Betdaq odds that I actually get are not published because there's things that I have no wish to discuss at this stage. However, from the SP, it should be possible for you all to verify that the P/L is a fair reflection.

Also, I never trade out. Once the lay bet is placed, that's it.

The selections that I post reflect the unfiltered system. It produces a small profit over the long term. The filtered system produces a nice profit thank you very much.

I'm not selling the system. I'm not looking to sell anyone anything.

I'm posting on here to get some street cred with you guys so that you are able to determine that I know what I'm talking about.

I'm looking to develop new systems for the future. However, I'm out of ideas. I need to work with people that have ideas that are new to me and which, maybe, I can use to develop some new systems.
 
Aragorn said:
So what's an Archie Score? I could google it and pretend to know but you may as well explain!
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Archie is a statistical method developed by Steve Tilley. It measures how likely it is that your results are due to luck as opposed to good judgement. In other words, it measures how likely it is that your results are random.
 
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Firstly exchange prices can be verified. It's called the Betfair SP.
Secondly you've getting no street cred from me. Your system is fundamentally unsound. If the market is telling you the horse is more likely to close close to the off then you have completely missed the price where the horse was value to lay. As the market is very efficient near the off you have no edge laying horses and you're results are completely random.
 
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SlimChance said:
Firstly exchange prices can be verified. It's called the Betfair SP.
Secondly you've getting no street cred from me. Your system is fundamentally unsound. If the market is still you the horse is more likely to close close to the off then you have completely missed the price where the horse was value to lay. As the market is very efficient near the off you have no edge laying horses and you're results are completely random.
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I haven't fully explained my system to you. Therefore, you cannot say whether it is sound or unsound.

Secondly, I am unwilling, at this stage, to discuss the details of when and how I lay the selections. The results are based on laying 2 mins. before the scheduled off and are based on odds that were available at that time.
 
I genuinely don't care what the system is. The cleverest algorithms in the world are taking each other on 2mins before the off. You have absolutely no edge.
 
Tonto

i got to be careful now not to write in paragraphs;)

Slim is a prickly chap and is very suspicious by nature..when you see what has happened in the past on here you can't blame him.

I'd like you to keep posting though...because i think that if every time someone new comes along we automatically think they are a previous encumbent then we are never going to get new people posting...Gigilo had some right stick when he first came here...not from me by the way.

Was Kalahari Kingdom a pick partly because he was a gelding by the way?
 
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EC1 said:
Tonto

i got to be careful now not to write in paragraphs;)

Slim is a prickly chap and is very suspicious by nature..when you see what has happened in the past on here you can't blame him.

I'd like you to keep posting though...because i think that if every time someone new comes along we automatically think they are a previous encumbent then we are never going to get new people posting...Gigilo had some right stick when he first came here...not from me by the way.

Was Kalahari Kingdom a pick partly because he was a gelding by the way?
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http://www.talkinghorses.co.uk/forum/showthread.php?t=18810&highlight=Bruce+savage
 
EC1 said:
Tonto

i got to be careful now not to write in paragraphs;)

Slim is a prickly chap and is very suspicious by nature..when you see what has happened in the past on here you can't blame him.

I'd like you to keep posting though...because i think that if every time someone new comes along we automatically think they are a previous encumbent then we are never going to get new people posting...Gigilo had some right stick when he first came here...not from me by the way.

Was Kalahari Kingdom a pick partly because he was a gelding by the way?
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Hi EC1

I popped in yesterday to turn off some switches on my account so that I no longer received notifications when anyone posts on either of the two threads that I started. I noticed your post. I was undecided as to whether I should ignore or respond. I decided to sleep on it and this morning decided to respond, given that you had been good enough to post.

It wasn’t Slim’s mouth that concerned me. It was his brain, I’m afraid. Hiis analytical ability is hapless.

Based on my use of paragraphs and the fact that I repeated myself once, he decided that I was someone else. Had he decided that I was someone else based on word frequency usage, then I would have been impressed. To base it on my use of paragraphs and the fact that I repeated myself once is pitiful.
He also claimed that there is no value to be had on Betfair from 2 minutes before the off to the off. Quite why he believes this I know not because some simple maths will prove him wrong. My fear is that it will take from here to eternity to convince him that he’s wrong and, quite frankly, I neither have the time, the energy nor the inclination.

When he read my posts, he usually misinterpreted them. Quite why, I have no idea.

He also posted: ‘Sorry. I can't read drivel for more than 6 lines’ in response to one of my posts. How childish and how rude.

I could go on, but I’ll desist to save him further embarrassment. If he isn’t embarrassed, then I’ll be embarrassed on his behalf.

Here’s where I’m at:

I have a successful system. However, people keep telling me that the betting landscape is changing and will change more and faster in the future. I’m not sure but, just in case I’m wrong, I want a system or two sat in the wings ready to switch on should they be needed. Unfortunately, I’m fresh out of ideas and need to interact with others with new ideas in order to develop some new systems. That’s why I came here. I hoped that we could benefit from each other. I was willing to share and I have. I also posted my unfiltered system selections not so that you guys could use it but so that you had proof that I could walk the walk.

Sadly, Slim is supported by others. I can only assume that their analytical abilities are similar to Slim’s.

It’s difficult enough to create a winning system, given how corrupt the sport is. However, with Slim and his supporters to contend with, it would be an impossible task.

I’m sure that there are others on this forum that are not of Slim’s ilk. To those I would say that it’s a great pity that we didn’t get to chat.

EC, I agree with you. If attitudes on this forum don’t change, then it will stagnate and die.

This really will be my last post. I’m off.
 
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You've got to be a super human to win on Betfair in the 5 mins before the off. I can just about do it at Southwell in the Winter but anywhere else, I don't have a prayer and neither do 99.9% of the individual accounts playing on there either.

I am winning 4% on the exchange in 2014 but I lost 31% in 2013. I've changed my strategy this year but I am still acutely aware that 4% is probably false and I should probably put a nail in it for the year. As discussed before on here, there are occasions when the Betfair market is wrong (So You Think Dubai World Cup my fav one to cite) but those occasions are so few and far between you have to be both a genius and have the discipline of a Buddhist monk to make these pay.
 
walsworth said:
Must admit to being puzzled, does that mean that only mugs bet late on the Exchanges?
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It's more an issue of the market being highly developed by that point. The people offering you 11.5 something probably know it's true price is 12.5 but as they are laying most horses in most races, those margins are fine for them as they use sophisticated algorithms and models. Sure you'll beat them occasionally but taking them on daily is only going to end way.
 
I have long ago come to the realisation that I will never know the "true price" of a horse. Neither I suspect does anybody; not even the general consensus of opinion on Betfair 5minutes before the Off.

But I do have one rule which I never deviate from no matter whether I'm betting or trading, which is: Never Cross The Spread.
I.E. don't Lay at the odds asked for, and don't back at the price offered. Put in your back bet as a request at the higher odds rather than taking the available price on the Lay side. You will most of the time be accommodated, and doing so will seriously improve your P/L at years end. Not rocket science, but I am constantly amazed at the amount of Betfair bettors who simply take the price offered.
 
icebreaker said:
I have long ago come to the realisation that I will never know the "true price" of a horse. Neither I suspect does anybody; not even the general consensus of opinion on Betfair 5minutes before the Off.

But I do have one rule which I never deviate from no matter whether I'm betting or trading, which is: Never Cross The Spread.
I.E. don't Lay at the odds asked for, and don't back at the price offered. Put in your back bet as a request at the higher odds rather than taking the available price on the Lay side. You will most of the time be accommodated, and doing so will seriously improve your P/L at years end. Not rocket science, but I am constantly amazed at the amount of Betfair bettors who simply take the price offered.
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You make a very simple but a very good point. It was worth the rubbish on the thread for that. The market on Betfair is mental. I agree it's not always right but you won't beat it longterm. I think the bigger question is what factors drive Betfair at the off that aren't considered by the oddsmakers that set their prices overnight?
 
SlimChance said:
I think the bigger question is what factors drive Betfair at the off that aren't considered by the oddsmakers that set their prices overnight?
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I think a major element is the Human Factor -- sentiment. Something which the overnight Betfair market-makers in their rigid orthodoxy cannot factor in. Their modus operandi is to price the market based on estimation of different horses chance of winning. (The American linesmaker has a different approach -- his job requirement is to make a Morning Line based on how he estimates the public will bet a market).
I see the latter methodology as the more accurate because I strongly believe there is no such thing as a "true price" based on a horse's percentage chance of winning. It is guesstimation. Same as the price of a second-hand car or diamond or whatever. Forget "trade valuation" and other such nonsense -- the true price is what you can get for it when selling it. Which, in a roundabout way, brings us back to the first sentence of this post .................. the main factor that determines Betfair prices near the Off is the way the punters money is going. The true price of a horse is that price at which someone is prepared to Lay you.

Fortunately, there are descriptors which allow us to form an educated estimate as to which way a price will move close to the Off -- the w-o-m; the shape of the queues; the momentum chart.
Build your wall just below the marker which separates the 0.02 ticks from the 0.05 ticks. Put your Lay offers in the 0.02 range and your Back requests in the 0.05 range ( e.g. 2.98 and 3.05) and you will be getting value in your betting and the best "true price" around.
 
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