Diamond Geezer
Gone But Not Forgotten
- Joined
- May 2, 2003
- Messages
- 13,884
My haymaker for the race would be Saint Calvados at 66/1.
I didn’t know you were on him too Nick. I might have to lay him off now then. :lol:Robbing my work again. Shameless.
I’m not going to discount ABP HawkWing. He’s a dual Champion in his prime, and trained by a master.Are we going to go through another year of not mentioning the now dual gold cup winner as the one to beat?
I'm not sure he will win but that sounds awfully like what was said last year - that he won due to a unique set of circumstances unlikely to be repeated. And here we are. Think there is a counter arguement to seat we haven't seen the best of abp. He has far fewer questions to answer than other contenders.I like Minella Indo and Champ personally, but I could accept a case for 5 of the top 6 in the betting winning.
I don't see how Lostintraslation turns the form around in a better run race, which it surely will be next March. I'd be all over that one for the Marsh if there was an unlikely switch in target.
My haymaker for the race would be Saint Calvados at 66/1. I know he was second in the Ryanair last season only beaten a neck, but that's shaping up like a better race next season, and I don't see Min repeating or Saint Calvados improving over the same trip. Samcro and Allaho will prove tougher opposition. And either Defi or Fakir will go their too. Whittington and Brooks have Simply The Betts to take up the Ryanair mantle, and I felt all season that Saint Calvados would be seen to his best effect over further. I'm hoping they come to the same conclusion, that Simply the Betts is every bit as good as Frodon was in the season before that one won the Ryaniar, and Saint Calvados can improve again for a step up in trip.
The other bit of value is Delta Work if he can jump better, which is well worth watching this season, as he may still offer some value. His novice chase form puts him bang in the mix alongside Santini, and he was the youngest of Santini and Topofthegame in their RSA. So at 8 he has the most potential to improve, and should now be hitting his peak.
I'm also curious whether Gigi will be tempted to step Samcro up to do the job they bought him to do, or whether they'll stick with the Ryanair after his Marsh win. Because of the failed year they wasted over hurdles he'll be 9 next March in his first 'open' season, so surely this will be his only realistic chance of winning the big one. On that basis his price looks too big. Gordon already has Delta Work and Presenting Percy for the race, but O'Leary would presumably over-rule his trainer if he wanted to go that way, particularly as they allowed Elliott to mess up with his aborted Champion Hurdle campaign.
It's possible that they've reassessed, and now have him down as a speedier type though that wants the intermediate trip rather than a proper stamina test. But the Gold Cup is probably 'one shot' this season for him so despite him being generally 10's for the Ryanair and 25's for the Gold Cup I'd say it's far from a done deal.
Was Santini unlucky though. He lacks a gear which showed in the race. The winner missed a few in the race aswell. Santini would have been helped with more pace in the race. The winner though as we saw in his first Gold Cup where there was more pace during the race has won easily and more impressively. Clearly ABP will have to have the constitution to go through the wall yet again which we don't know.
A chance both ABP and Santini will succumb to a novice from last season.
Not sure to which commentator I should attribute this, probably one of the ATR boys.
“A steady pace would not have helped Santini who stayed on dourly to finish a narrow second behind Al Boum Photo in the Gold Cup and he would have won in a few more strides.
Having just his sixth start over fences – and his tenth under rules - Nicky Henderson’s eight-year-old got a shade outpaced before the second last and had to switch twice in the straight which arguably cost him the race.
The first-time cheekpieces was a wise move by connections and he found plenty under pressure, but he just lacked the speed needed at a crucial stage.“
I won’t comment since he’s a favourite of mine and I’d forgive him anything. Always dangerous to really like a horse!!
My view on that Frankel is that ABP will stay in a better run race, but my feeling is others will stay better. A feature of Al Boum Photo is his ability to put a race to bed with his kick, but if that’s taken out of him he’ll be beaten by a better stayer.
He won his first Gold Cup in a better run race, but an ordinary time. As game as Anibale Fly is, he only beat him a couple of lengths, and you’d think a few of his likely opposition would be a good deal better than Anibale Fly.
The counter-argument is ABP is a better horse now. That’s fair enough, but as much as I’d like to see and enjoy watching a triple champion, I don’t think I will in what will be a deep race full of quality, unless injuries have a major impact.
Do you not think Saint Calvados will be the Brooks/Whittington horse for the Gold Cup, with Simply The Betts their Ryanair horse Truncheon?