The Road To The 2021 Cheltenham Gold Cup

It’s funny how we all see things differently. I think Saint Calvados needs a step up in trip and will take in the King George. If he runs well there I’d then hope he goes for the Gold Cup.

I was thinking one more handicap for Simply The Betts, either the November meeting as you say, or perhaps December, depending on how well forward they want him. And then a crack at the Ryanair.
 
Worth remembering that lostintranslation had an interrupted preparation and most of Tizzards ran terrible that week!!

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Think LIT has had his chance. Stamina was the question mark going in this year. Won't get a better chance given lack of pace this year but couldn't see it out when just hitting the front.
Think he will fold in what is sure to be a sterner test.
 
Frankel said:
Think LIT has had his chance. Stamina was the question mark going in this year. Won't get a better chance given lack of pace this year but couldn't see it out when just hitting the front.
Think he will fold in what is sure to be a sterner test.
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Yes, that's exactly how I see it too.
 
Maruco said:
I didn’t know you were on him too Nick. I might have to lay him off now then. :lol:

I've backed him for the King George too. My other ante post bet for that race is Real Steel.
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:D

I'm on for both races - just have to hope Whittington takes a look at the record of the Sire's winners, and at least tries him at 3m, the dope.
 
I'm pretty sure he will Nick. Placing in a Ryanair after staying on well is a sound path to the Gold Cup the following season.

It's an interesting point that Truncheon makes about Simply the Betts though, and I hadn't considered it. It's put some doubt in my mind that wasn't there before. I wonder which one Whittington sees as the more thorough stayer. Breeding would say Saint Calvados, but what it says on paper and what they show at home can be two different things.
 
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SC would have won the Ryanair with a more efficient jump at the last. To me that suggests the race was weak. A Plut Tard didn't jump well at all and I think it would make sense to return him to the old course (worth a look for the QM at the prices).










 
I'm not sure with your assessment of Saint Calvados Euro. I think he's improving the further he goes. Min is hardly a poor yardstick either, although the race fell in his lap a bit. You don't finish within half a length of Min if you're bang average though.

I do agree with you with regards A Plus Tard. If he'd jumped better he'd be the Ryanair winner. Perhaps you're right and a step back in trip to the easier old course would help, but I'm not sure it would help his jumping going back to the Champion Chase at championship pace. It'll be a consideration for Cheveley Park though if they decide they want Allaho at two and a half. I think that's the only reason they'd do it. Willie seems pretty adamant that Allaho is a Gold Cup horse though.

For me A Plus Tard is well worth another go at the Ryanair. As a 9 year old I suspect Samcro will step up in trip and go for the Gold Cup. So I think the main challengers to A Plus Tard will be three Mullins horses, Min, Melon, and Real Steel. Of which I prefer the last two named. The English horses contending I'm guessing will be Simply the Betts and imperial Aura.

The one I'd really like to come here is Fakir D'Oudaries. I think he could be special when he's stepped up in trip. You'd presume he might if Defi is to stick to two miles as Hobbs has said he will. Although I suspect Defi staying over the minimum will depend on whether he meets and gets turned over by Put The Kettle On in the Schloer. Which I think may happen. If it does it'll be him for the Ryanair and Fakir for the Champion Chase. I'd also be interested if they were to step back in trip with Lostintranslation. I can't see it happening given he finished third in the Gold Cup, but I don't see a repeat of that at a genuine pace, whereas I'd see him as genuine contender in the Ryanair.
 
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Willie will likely have to come to terms with Allaho's stamina limitations as the season progresses.
The Defi/Fakir thing will be fascinating. Both could be top class.
 
I just hope the racing gods don't rob us of what is shaping up to be a fantastic season in just about every category. We seem to have an absolute wealth of talent among the chasers at the moment.

I think you and I probably play the antepost markets as much as anyone, and it's a really tough call which way some of them will go for antepost purposes. I've got a strong position in most of the big races already for next March, but I have to admit to taking my own view on which way some horses will go. Thank god for the exchanges and cash out. I think I may need them more than ever this year.
 
Maruco said:
Thank god for the exchanges and cash out. I think I may need them more than ever this year.
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I think i've mentioned this before but last year I had 10 horses at big ap prices who made it to their respective races and none of them won. But I managed to cover a few of them (MIN/Champ double saved the bacon) and ended up breaking even. I was thinking of laying off close to the Fest and then topping up each way as a lot of them placed.
 
Euronymous said:
I think i've mentioned this before but last year I had 10 horses at big ap prices who made it to their respective races and none of them won. But I managed to cover a few of them (MIN/Champ double saved the bacon) and ended up breaking even. I was thinking of laying off close to the Fest and then topping up each way as a lot of them placed.
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I tend to go in quite heavily early and make something resembling a book for the big races, generally each way unless the odds are restrictive, and then I try and get those horses onside in a different way, which I've already done with Al Boum Photo this year.

I may also get in and out of horses pre and post trials if I think there's a risk.

I then re-study the form, lay most of my book back pre-race, and just keep what I want, and then add anything I've missed. I just think when you've got great odds so far out you want to try and fill the frame. In the case of the Gold Cup I want the 1-2-3, and will have a maximum of 4 bets (more likely 3) still riding on the day.

These are my Gold Cup bets so far:

Al Boum Photo win roll up (other legs have won) 37.5/1
Santini 20ew 7/1
Champ 10 ew 14/1. 10ew 12/1,
Minella Indo 10ew 16/1, 14/1
Topofthegame 20/1
Samcro 10ew 25/1
Saint Calvados 10 ew 50/1
Monalee 10ew 50/1
Melon 50/1

I don't want Lostintranslation so haven't added him, but may later depending on how the race starts to form. Allaho is a gaping hole that I'm about to fill, but I'm still holding back because I believe the Ryanair is the better race for him at this stage. That said Willie has enough credible candidates for that race, and as discussed A Plus Tard is most likely going to be there runner in that race. Other than that it'll take something credible from left-field for me to add to it.

I will top up stakes on some of these as the season progresses though, and I'd be surprised if any of them aren't great trading opportunities any time from the turn of the year to the day of the race. The risk of injury and not being quick enough for cash out is the biggest risk, but even with that being the case the winner and placers are still likely to be covered. And I look at Cheltenham as one big book anyway, so if I get caught on a race like most of us were with the Champion Chase last season, the risk is spread across all the early antepost races I've taken a position in. I won't after-time by talking specifics after the event (there are people who post here that could corroborate), but I had a very good Festival all round last year, and the long range stuff really paid off as usual overall.
 
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Maruco said:
I'm not sure with your assessment of Saint Calvados Euro. I think he's improving the further he goes. Min is hardly a poor yardstick either, although the race fell in his lap a bit. You don't finish within half a length of Min if you're bang average though.

I do agree with you with regards A Plus Tard. If he'd jumped better he'd be the Ryanair winner. Perhaps you're right and a step back in trip to the easier old course would help, but I'm not sure it would help his jumping going back to the Champion Chase at championship pace. It'll be a consideration for Cheveley Park though if they decide they want Allaho at two and a half. I think that's the only reason they'd do it. Willie seems pretty adamant that Allaho is a Gold Cup horse though.

For me A Plus Tard is well worth another go at the Ryanair. As a 9 year old I suspect Samcro will step up in trip and go for the Gold Cup. So I think the main challengers to A Plus Tard will be three Mullins horses, Min, Melon, and Real Steel. Of which I prefer the last two named. The English horses contending I'm guessing will be Simply the Betts and imperial Aura.

The one I'd really like to come here is Fakir D'Oudaries. I think he could be special when he's stepped up in trip. You'd presume he might if Defi is to stick to two miles as Hobbs has said he will. Although I suspect Defi staying over the minimum will depend on whether he meets and gets turned over by Put The Kettle On in the Schloer. Which I think may happen. If it does it'll be him for the Ryanair and Fakir for the Champion Chase. I'd also be interested if they were to step back in trip with Lostintranslation. I can't see it happening given he finished third in the Gold Cup, but I don't see a repeat of that at a genuine pace, whereas I'd see him as genuine contender in the Ryanair.
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FYI real steel has moved to Paul Nicholls

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granger said:
Fakir looks to need Winter ground. I'll have to see him again to see how he has matured

Defi - I can't see the case for him being top class
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I'm not drinking the Fakir Kool-Aid myself.

Dunno what it is. Maybe a bit of the Back In Front about this one.
 
I like Fakir particularly, and I'd be heavily into him for the Ryanair if I were confident he was heading that way.
 
I'm gonna forgive the horse one bad run given how good he looked at Ascot and Sandown.
I've taken 16s about him for the Ryanair.
 
For what it’s worth-I had a 20 minute chat with HdB about a month ago-I have a theory that Minella Indo is a spring horse and asked him what his opinion was.aHis reply was that he doesn’t think he is a spring horse but It takes a lot of work to get him fit.He also said he was going to give it a right lash to get him ready for Christmas -he didn’t say Kempton or Leopardstown.
Two things 1-I will be backing Minella for the Gold Cup to pay for my daughters first year in University 2)I wouldn’t be backing him today -obviously as a potential Gold Cup winner he will be trying but we are 18 weeks away from the big day.
 
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