The Sectional Thread

Maxbet said:
At no point did Sky Pirate come off the bridle, Scu's hands never left his trouser pockets...I would suggest whatever he said post-race, was for the handicappers ears!

This was Sky Pirates first race at 2 miles, he beat a good benchmark of handicappers as if he'd just joined them 2 out. This is exactly the course he will run on against horses of the same ilk on Friday at Cheltenham come March...Hills have got this one very wrong at 16/1....
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I won't argue that it could be interpreted that way and it's possible Scu was underplaying the performance but it looked to me like he was being nursed into contention until his stamina started to kick in as the pace told on those running out of stamina.

As for his future prospects, surely the handicapper won't go easy on him?
 
Grasshopper said:
This isn't said to be cheeky or to run-down the debate, but the question I always ask when Sectional discussions are surfaced is:

"What can this analysis tell me about how a horse is going to perform in its next race?"

If it can't help inform the answer, isn't Sectional analysis all just a bit like.....I dunno....pointless navel-gazing?

How do I go about applying Sectional analysis from an event in the past, to an event in the future - where I do not know in advance the precise nature of the ground, or the precise nature of the pace that will apply? I've always been somewhat of an arch-septic about times in Jumps races for primarily this reason i.e. I can't see how it can usefully be applied as part of weighing-up a race that's yet to be held, and would perhaps give it more credence if someone was able to provide me with an answer to this question.

PS: I get the whole "Good horses can run bad times but bad horses can't run good times" thing.........but that doesn't really tell me anything more than what is already self-evident.

PPS. Please don't respond with how this can be applied more usefully on the Flat, because we all know I couldn't give a monkeys.:thumbsup:


DO, hope you get your yaks sorted soon. :thumbsup:
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Ah, patience young grasshopper. (Bet you’ve never had that before!!)

I think they confirm (or not) what your eyes are telling you. Or paint a picture if you haven’t seen the race. For example, the sectional time will tell you if Champ lit the afterburners after the last, or if the front two died (I haven’t looked). Nothing we have foretells the future outcome otherwise we’d all be rolling in it, all we can do is use information to aid our guesses.
 
Insofar as ‘missing out’ you may be right......though over the years, I think you do develop a feel for how a race has been run from the visuals alone, and I certainly apply that when assessing the merit of a performance.

Forgive the pun, but these days, I don’t have the time (nor, I suppose) the inclination to commit as many hours in the day to study, as was perhaps once the case.....and analysis of Sectionals does appear to require an investment I’m no longer prepared to set aside.

I also think there’s the possibility of disappearing down the rabbit-hole with it too, and that it - like any other aspect of form analysis - can lead you to erroneous conclusions. Ultimately, Sectionals are as prone to personal misinterpretation, as any other measure we care to analyse.

In summary, I’m probably too lazy to give it sufficient thought as to make it worth my while, and whatever perceived benefits I may be missing out on, are possibly compensated by other factors anyway.

Or maybe I’m just too lazy.
 
barjon said:
For example, the sectional time will tell you if Champ lit the afterburners after the last, or if the front two died (I haven’t looked).
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I did at the time. The front two were stopping up the hill. Champ was merely staying on.

It might not be of any interest to GH (because it's to do with the Flat shite) but Prufrock/Timeform do use sectional data to quantify [in pounds] how much of a mark-up some horses should have based on the [in]efficiency of their individual race sections.

I have a copy of the formula but don't fully trust it. I prefer instead to use ++ next to a rating with a big mark-up but only if the time itself is already a good one.
 
Grasshopper said:
Insofar as ‘missing out’ you may be right......though over the years, I think you do develop a feel for how a race has been run from the visuals alone, and I certainly apply that when assessing the merit of a performance.

Forgive the pun, but these days, I don’t have the time (nor, I suppose) the inclination to commit as many hours in the day to study, as was perhaps once the case.....and analysis of Sectionals does appear to require an investment I’m no longer prepared to set aside.

I also think there’s the possibility of disappearing down the rabbit-hole with it too, and that it - like any other aspect of form analysis - can lead you to erroneous conclusions. Ultimately, Sectionals are as prone to personal misinterpretation, as any other measure we care to analyse.

In summary, I’m probably too lazy to give it sufficient thought as to make it worth my while, and whatever perceived benefits I may be missing out on, are possibly compensated by other factors anyway.

Or maybe I’m just too lazy.
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Entirely understandable, GH.

I have a different psychological make-up.

If I feel I've missed out on a winner because I paid less attention to a race than I could have then I get a wee bit annoyed with myself.

I don't use sectionals all the time, just when I think they might help evaluate a race/horse/performance. I'll maybe pick one or two races every other weekend if they've struck me as potentially stronger than at first sight. They might end up telling me I've wasted that time but, as I said before, I don't mind having that confirmation.

I usually do a sectional analysis of the festival races because that form is usually very important.
 
Good question.

I know they are the Raceform Standards but they changed them a number of years back.

Dave Edwards took over as the time ratings compiler for RP publications so I presume he created the RP Standards, which I believe are Raceform Standards now too.

I don't use them because I don't trust them.

I still use Ken Hussey's standard times. I trust them.
 
Grasshopper said:
"What can this analysis tell me about how a horse is going to perform in its next race?"
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It won't, but it might create a better understanding of why a horse ran as it did, on the day.
You're probably right not to get involved, as I've yet to encounter anyone turning a regular profit from NH sectionals, but I see plenty tying themselves in knots trying to make sense of them.
Each to their own is a fitting maxim.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Without knowing if there were any adjustments for rails being dolled out and just using the comparative times as published in the RP, I'm still getting very big figures for Chatham Street Lad.

Including calculations for weight carried, CSL was 17lbs faster than Fusil Raffles (OR 150, might go up this week) and 28lbs faster than Sky Pirate (134, likely to go up about 10lbs).

I look forward to seeing what my own figures say later in the week.
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Fusil Raffles has been left alone, Sky Pirate up 10lbs.

Midnight Shadow has been raised a pound. This would suggest CSL has been put up at least 15lbs but we won't know until he's entered for another race over here. CSL has been raised 14lbs by the Irish official but was rated 4lbs lower to start with than over here so I can't see his new rating being transferred directly across. (He might be chucked in back over hurdles in a handicap as he's been left on 134.) If he only goes up 14lbs over here I would seriously fancy him to win again off 155.

(Song For Someone has been raised 2lbs to 158 but that's probably more relevant to the CH thread.)
 
According to the racing post online Chatham Street Lad has been raised to 151, which is up 10lbs from last week.

Why run in a grade 1 now when you can scoop up another big handicap off 151?
 
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Marb said:
According to the racing post online Chatham Street Lad has been raised to 151, which is up 10lbs from last week.

Why run in a grade 1 now when you can scoop up another big handicap off 151?
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The Irish handicapper has raised CSL to 151 but that's from 137, which is what its rating in Ireland was. Its UK rating was 141 and we won't know its new rating until it's next entered over here, possibly only in a handicap (which they might do in order to ascertain its new mark).

If conservative ratings people like Timeform see fit to raise it 15lbs and the UK official has raised Midnight Shadow, beaten 15 lengths, by 1lb, then I would be willing to bet good money that the UK handicapper is looking at a bare minimum of 16lbs.

That would take CSL up to 157 so it would probably have to take in only the very top handicaps to avoid a very high weight.

I wouldn't rule it out of winning a good handicap off 157 as I expect my figure for him tomorrow to be some way higher.

Whether he can win a big handicap in Ireland off 151 might be another matter when you think that a horse of the ability of The Jam Man can get into one off a mark in the 120s.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Without knowing if there were any adjustments for rails being dolled out and just using the comparative times as published in the RP, I'm still getting very big figures for Chatham Street Lad.

Including calculations for weight carried, CSL was 17lbs faster than Fusil Raffles (OR 150, might go up this week) and 28lbs faster than Sky Pirate (134, likely to go up about 10lbs).

I look forward to seeing what my own figures say later in the week.
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The rails were dolled out quite a bit. That and my different 'standard' times compared with the published RP ones have brought about different outcomes.

I'm not convinced RP times compared with their 'standard' times make any allowance for rail movement. I don't recall seeing any evidence for it, certainly not mentioned, although it may be factored in and just not referred to.

I have CSL working out 16lbs faster than Fusil Raffles but the difference with Sky Pirate is much less than above but Sky Pirate himself is still 12lbs faster than Fusil Raffles.

I still intend going very high with my form ratings for both CSL and SP.
 
Maxbet said:
At no point did Sky Pirate come off the bridle, Scu's hands never left his trouser pockets...I would suggest whatever he said post-race, was for the handicapper's ears!

This was Sky Pirates first race at 2 miles, he beat a good benchmark of handicappers as if he'd just joined them 2 out. This is exactly the course he will run on against horses of the same ilk on Friday at Cheltenham come March...Hills have got this one very wrong at 16/1....
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14/1 with hills now
 
I've watched that race again a couple of times, Maxbet, specifically to keep an eye on Sky Pirate.

I would love to hear Ruby Walsh's opinion on the jockey's body language. I've noticed in his RTC series with Lydia H he is talking about what the jockeys are doing with their body during a race. I have to assume he knows what he's talking about.

Having watched him a couple of times, I don't think Scu was 'at it' when he said he was flat out five out. It looked to me like he was nursing the horse along at the extent of his comfort zone and hte downhill run allowed him to get a breather into Sky Pirate. The pace never really relented up front with Ibleo having dropped off it a bit coming through to press the leaders on the turn.

That was when Sky Pirate got his second wind and his stamina started to kick in. I think the horse was travelling at his maximum speed up the hill and Scu made it look easier than it was. I think he knew the horse had come through a tough race and had it won and saw no reason to ask it for any more, probably realising it had run to its max as it was.

One of the joys of this sport is seeing impressive winners in competitive races as it whets the appetite for their next appearances.

I will have no problem if your interpretation of Sky Pirate's performance proves correct but for now my gut is saying he wouldn't have won by much further with a harder race.
 
With a harder race the jockey would have driven Sky Pirate and reached for the whip and he'd have stopped. He won the race on the bridle which is the only way he can win. As soon as the gun goes to his head he folds which makes him one to avoid at the Festival.
 
Maruco said:
With a harder race the jockey would have driven Sky Pirate and reached for the whip and he'd have stopped. He won the race on the bridle which is the only way he can win. As soon as the gun goes to his head he folds which makes him one to avoid at the Festival.
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You can't say that for certain Paul. He won the race on the bridle...The first time he has ever been run over less than 20 furlongs...One Man used to stop in a similar manner over further.
DO Said himself "the pace never relented". It never got him off the bridle over the 2-mile trip.
He simply dotted up...
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I will have no problem if your interpretation of Sky Pirate's performance proves correct but for now, my gut is saying he wouldn't have won by much further with a harder race.
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All things being equal, wouldn't the others have weakened earlier with a harder race!

Did he need to win much further, Jonjo was probably screaming at Scu to put the breaks on!
 
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