The thoughts of the handicappers.

Been a little slack updating this thread but a super busy time of year unfortunately. Two posts in-coming...

Cheltenham November Meeting Handicappers Blog
23 Nov 21
Irish challenger A Plus Tard passed his first exam of the season in exhilarating fashion, writes Martin Greenwood…

An obvious favourite for the Betfair Lancashire Chase at Haydock following his second to Minella Indo in last season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup, A Plus Tard didn’t give his supporters an iota of worry.

A rare runner in this event from across the Irish Sea, A Plus Tard was patiently ridden as Betfair hero Bristol de Mai and Royal Pagaille duelled for the lead. Nothing much changed until Imperial Aura fell halfway down the far side on the final circuit when close up, at which point the favourite had moved smoothly into contention. Still tanking as he took over the lead at the third last, A Plus Tard accelerated away to score in style, barely coming off the bridle. Royal Pagaille did much the better of the pacesetters (with Bristol de Mai dropping away quickly) but was still some twenty-two lengths adrift of the winner at the line.

Early-season form is often full of potholes and it’s usually – but not always – best to take a pragmatic view, at least in the short term. The time comparison with the later handicap is very impressive, suggesting a figure in the high-180s, but an average of historical standards suggest a mid-170s number. The latter approach seems the most sensible course of action at this stage, while fully acknowledging that the ‘actual’ figure could be much higher.

Now rated 175, the same as his Cheltenham conqueror Minella Indo, that pair have only Clan des Obeaux and Al Boum Photo anywhere near them in the staying division as things stand. Still unexposed over staying trips, this was only A Plus Tard’s fourth run at around three miles plus. He seems to have the unique blend of relative speed and ability to stay the trip, the only caveat being that he has yet to prove his stamina in very searching conditions and races almost always left handed.

Nube Negra fires the first shots of 2m campaign

The best 2m chase of the season so far was run at Cheltenham last Sunday in the shape of the Grade 2 Shloer Chase, writes Chris Nash. Although only four went to post, the field included the first and second from last season’s Champion Chase, Put The Kettle On and Nube Negra, as well as the 2020 winner of that race, Politologue, so it looked a strong renewal.

It was the latter who set the pace and he appeared to make the race an honest enough test. Nube Negra raced in last, travelled best for longest and saw it out well up the hill to win by six lengths from Politologue, with Put The Kettle On a further four and a half lengths back in third.

The winner has a very good record fresh and I rated this a career best effort at 168 (up from his pre-race rating of 165). Politologue also has a very good first-time-out record but was a touch below his very best here – I had him running to a figure of 162 and I trimmed his official rating from 167 to 165. Put The Kettle On was unbeaten on her four previous visits to the track but surrendered that record here. She actually looked a little tapped for toe down the back straight and was the first to come under a ride but she did stay on gallantly up the straight.

The 2m chase division promises to be very exciting in 2021-22 with the aforementioned trio joined by the leading horse of the last jumps season (Chacun Pour Soi, rated 176) as well as the two leading

novices (Shiskin and Energumene, both rated 169). The next meeting point for this group is the Grade 1 Tingle Creek chase at Sandown in early-December.

Corker for the Skeltons

The feature handicap on the final day of Cheltenham’s November Meeting, the Unibet Greatwood Hurdle, attracted an ultra-competitive field of 19 and the success of West Cork was a notable feather in the cap for trainer Dan Skelton, with the gelding defying an absence of some 631 days, writes Andrew Mealor…

Recent renewals of the Greatwood have typically seen rises of between 5 and 7 lb for the winner and between 3 and 5 lb for the runner-up. With West Cork chased home by another pair of unexposed sorts in second-season hurdler Adagio and novice No Ordinary Joe in a big field (the biggest for the race since 2019), and the form also underpinned by recent winners Camprond (fourth) and Glory And Fortune (sixth), I’m happy to take a positive view and rate at the high end of recent standards. That results in a rise of 7 lb for West Cork (to 141) and he’ll presumably be targeted at the other big 2m handicaps, starting with Ascot’s Betfair Exchange Trophy just before Christmas.

Beaten just half a length in second, Adagio clearly ran a belter off top weight and is up 5 lb to 152. He still has work to do in order to become a genuine Champion Hurdle contender but further progress is far from out of the question given his overall profile. Adagio was second only to Monmiral (153) amongst last season’s British-trained juveniles, and the latter may get a further chance to land a blow for the four-year-olds in next weekend’s Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle.

No Ordinary Joe (up 3 lb to 136) didn’t settle fully and deserves plenty of credit for hanging on for third, especially given his overall lack of experience. He’s another who will presumably be aimed at the top 2m handicaps.

In contrast to the Greatwood, the Grade 2 Sky Bet Supreme Trial thirty-five minutes later attracted a field of just three, and only two completed with Pikar falling at the last when looking outpaced in third. Runner-up Washington (129) looks promising having won well in a novice at Bangor on his sole previous run over hurdles, but the likelihood is that I Like To Move It (138) didn’t need to better the form he had shown at the previous Cheltenham meeting (when beating Greatwood fifth Tritonic) to prevail by a comfortable two lengths.
 
Fighting Fifth Redemption for Not So Sleepy
30 Nov 21


The latest edition of Newcastle’s Betfair Fighting Fifth hurdle saw a thrilling conclusion after the front three had jumped the last in unison, with the judge ultimately unable to split Epatante and Not So Sleepy in a photo finish, though the race also provided more evidence the home team will struggle once more against reigning champion Honeysuckle in the Champion Hurdle next March, writes Andrew Mealor…

Five of the six who went to post in the Fighting Fifth had also run in last year’s renewal, evidence of the lack of fresh blood at the top of the 2m hurdling division. Not So Sleepy had well and truly blotted his copybook that day, jinking and unseating his rider at the first and then proceeding to carry out Silver Streak, but he redeemed himself with a very game effort, rallying to share the spoils despite jumping errors at each of the last two flights.

Although rising ten, this was only Not So Sleepy’s twelfth run over hurdles and he’s improved with each season. A second win in Ascot’s big pre-Christmas handicap and a fifth in the Champion Hurdle were his highlights last campaign, and he bettered even that form in recording a figure of 160. Although he was a big price, the Fighting Fifth result makes a fair bit of sense otherwise. Epatante and Sceau Royal, last year’s one-two, were the other pair involved in the close finish, whilst fourth-placed Silver Streak (154) performed similarly in relation to Sceau Royal (158) as he had when chasing that rival home in a listed race at Kempton last time.

Epatante (153) looked the pick of the weights beforehand in receipt of the mares’ allowance and that she didn’t win outright having moved best and led narrowly after the last was perhaps a little disappointing, though in mitigation she was reappearing against two match-fit rivals. That said, she’d made a successful return on each of her previous three campaigns and the overriding impression is that she simply isn’t quite the horse she was when winning the Champion Hurdle back in 2020. Rated 162 at the end of that season, Epatante has run to no higher than 154 in her five subsequent runs, and that sort of level usually isn’t good enough to win a Champion Hurdle, even once her mares’ allowance is factored in.

The disappointment of the Fighting Fifth was Monmiral who wasn’t travelling from a fair way out. A line can be put through the run given he was subsequently found to be lame and his juvenile form was given a big boost by Adagio’s fine effort in the Greatwood two weeks ago.


Another to have his Champion Hurdle hopes dampened over the weekend was Soaring Glory (149) who finished last of four in a muddling Gerry Fielden at Newbury. The small-field scenario certainly wasn’t suitable for last year’s Betfair Hurdle winner, though he has a fair bit to find with the leading two milers in any case.


All in all, events on Saturday only served to strengthen Honeysuckle’s (165) claims of retaining her crown, and right on cue she reappeared twenty-four hours later with a commanding eight-length success in the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse, completing a hat-trick of wins in that Grade 1 event. She’s now odds on with most bookmakers for Cheltenham and at this stage it’s hard to see who will trouble her should she turn up fit and well.
 
I thing UK commentators are second to none but I was just watching Danilo Dairy hack up

The commentator said..The handicapper just cant keep up with this horse.........The owner hearing that must be pulling his hair out saying thanks a million mate.:lol:

How much do commentators comments influence the handicapper?......any thoughts?
 
granger said:
https://www.timeform.com/horse-raci...christmas-ratings-update-the-chasers-30122021
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I don't fully understand the rationale behind dropping a horse's rating on the back of its not running to form, especially when there's an obvious excuse for it.

I'm trying to think of an equivalent in other sports. If I could regularly run the marathon in 2h59m I'd be called a sub-3hr marathon runner. If, one day, I wasn't feeling 100% and only managed 3h05m would that make my previous achievements null and void? Would I no longer be a sub-3hr runner? I think that's a weird approach.

It wouldn't happen in golf, would it? I don't know enough about golf handicapping but I understand it's very difficult to get your handicap changed on the basis of one performance.

Alternatively, is it tantamount to admitting a previous higher rating was a miscalculation? With all their computer power that they tend to boast about?

I'd have more respect for them if they held their ratings for longer, until further evidence offered definite evidence that a previous mark was inaccurate.
 
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barjon said:
The official handicapper ... is a bit more circumspect than Timeform who are more interested in current form.

If you were running next week in a marathon the official handicapper would still have you handicapped at 2:59 whereas Timeform would reckon you probably couldn’t run up to that at the moment.
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Yes, that's what I mean. But that 3h05m run could have been because I didn't eat enough pasta the night before, or didn't sleep as well as I should have, or any other minor reason, and maybe tomorrow I could easily mange the 2:59 again.

Did they drop Brigadier Gerard's rating when he was beaten by Roberto, or did they suddenly rate Roberto higher?

It doesn't make sense to take such a short-term view, I don't think.

Edit - just for clarification, there's no way I could run a 3hr marathon. Six hours would be an achievement for me.
 
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My rationale:
2 horses (Minella Indo & Frodon) both short in the market, patently failed to live up to market expectation owing to going to going too quick, too early. The same logic dictates that another 2 (the 1st and 3rd) both outran market expectation by dint of the exact opposite; ie they were slowed by circumstance earlier in the race.
Truth be told, it was probably the scorching early pace that did for Chantry House too.
 
There are so many imponderables in handicapping which I suppose is just as well since there would be multiple dead heats otherwise :). Tinkering about with a pound or two here and a pound or two there seems pretty meaningless when you’re seeing races with fifty or so lengths between first and last (forgetting those who couldn’t even finish) in handicaps that are supposed to make them all equal. Similarly, is it really likely that a horse can improve by 20 or 30 pounds in a few months? It’s rating might, but I doubt that the horse has.
 
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barjon said:
There are so many imponderables in handicapping which I suppose is just as well since there would be multiple dead heats otherwise :). Tinkering about with a pound or two here and a pound or two there seems pretty meaningless when you’re seeing races with fifty or so lengths between first and last (forgetting those who couldn’t even finish) in handicaps that are supposed to make them all equal. Similarly, is it really likely that a horse can improve by 20 or 30 pounds in a few months? It’s rating might, but I doubt that the horse has.
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Yes, I think we're pretty much on the same wavelength in this regard, barjon. When I do my ratings, the idea is to get as close a handle as possible on a horse's ability while accepting that it won't always run to it (distance, ground, jockey, future targets, etc) and my reason for laying out my ratings in tabulated form is to get a bigger picture of relative handicapping. Of more importance to me than the actual ratings are improvers and targeting. Anyone with a bit of time and intent can come up with a way of rating a race but working out which will run its race in any given event is, for me, more important.

The more valuable the race the more likely more of the runners are going to be targeting it so relative handicapping starts to take on importance again.

But if the ratings are nowhere near accurate to start with, you're in trouble. The old GIGO principle.
 
Desert Orchid said:
It wouldn't happen in golf, would it? I don't know enough about golf handicapping but I understand it's very difficult to get your handicap changed on the basis of one performance.
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Golf handicapping has been radically altered in the last year or so, Mo. Previously a failure to meet or beat standard scratch (a kind of weighted average for that days play) would entitle you to .1 of a shot back. Now with the new world handicapping system looking back over your last 20 rounds, and customising your handicap to the course you are playing that day (degree of difficulty index) it has become much more fungible. As a high handicapper it has made me much more likely to win a prize, despite still being shoite at golf.
 
Yes, desert, I’m with you on the improvers and targeting front. Trainers tend to be creatures of habit and prepare their horses for their target races in tried and trusted fashion. There used to be an invaluable publication years ago (can’t even recall it’s name now) that was all about the trainers and their individual methods. Gold dust that was.
 
barjon said:
There used to be an invaluable publication years ago (can’t even recall it’s name now) that was all about the trainers and their individual methods. Gold dust that was.
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Green cover?

If so, I had a copy or two of that. They would have been binned when I moved house.
 
barjon said:
Yes, desert, I’m with you on the improvers and targeting front. Trainers tend to be creatures of habit and prepare their horses for their target races in tried and trusted fashion. There used to be an invaluable publication years ago (can’t even recall it’s name now) that was all about the trainers and their individual methods. Gold dust that was.
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Pro-form springs to mind,BJ?
 
desert, reet

Damned if I can remember. May have been an annual publication that reviewed a number of trainers and identified patterns from how, when and where their horses had performed prior to winning. Seem to remember it as something I carried about with me, so not a heavyweight Timeform Annual type tome.
 
The book I'm thinking of was based on Sporting Life data about trainers. It listed every trainer's annual statistics for every course, jockey etc.

It might have been called something like Trainer Statistics [plus the season in question]'

Whether there was a blurb about what races they were targeting etc, I'm not so sure. It's the kind of information printed every day in the likes of the RP but it was always useful to have it at the start of a season. Strictly for anoraks, though, as I was back then.

I still like to check the data in the Weekender under a race ti see who the most successful trainers are in certain races. Sometimes it helps me decide between contenders.
 
I do indeed. The point I missed in my boring golf post is that high handicap golfers have much more variability in their handicap. One bad round and you could get a whole shot back whereas it would have taken 10 in the old system.

zzzzzzzzzzzzzz
 
Desert Orchid said:
I don't fully understand the rationale behind dropping a horse's rating on the back of its not running to form, especially when there's an obvious excuse for it.

I'm trying to think of an equivalent in other sports. If I could regularly run the marathon in 2h59m I'd be called a sub-3hr marathon runner. If, one day, I wasn't feeling 100% and only managed 3h05m would that make my previous achievements null and void? Would I no longer be a sub-3hr runner? I think that's a weird approach.

It wouldn't happen in golf, would it? I don't know enough about golf handicapping but I understand it's very difficult to get your handicap changed on the basis of one performance.

Alternatively, is it tantamount to admitting a previous higher rating was a miscalculation? With all their computer power that they tend to boast about?

I'd have more respect for them if they held their ratings for longer, until further evidence offered definite evidence that a previous mark was inaccurate.
Click to expand...

A sign of the immediate reactionary nature of content

Of course any number is a reflection of what's possible and your suggestion of a regression towards a true rating meaning the original was too high seems fair
 
Late update....

Tornado whips up a storm
04 Jan 22

This time last year I was bemoaning the fact that the staying chase division was very hard to read, with an ever revolving order of merit due to constant upsets and below-par performances. Fast forward twelve months and the picture looks remarkably similar, with the two big races over the Christmas period doing little to clarify matters at the top of the division.

Let’s start at home in what looked a very open Ladbrokes King George at Kempton in which the betting didn’t really reflect previous achievements/ratings. Not for the first time in this race numerous horses failed to give their running, notably the early pacesetters Minella Indo and Frodon, and the gambled- on Chantry House. The first two almost certainly paid for going hard early, while Chantry House didn’t jump anywhere near well enough. Dual winner Clan des Obeaux came out of the race with some credit but was a still long way below his best, while Saint Calvados (making his debut for Paul Nicholls) shaped really well for the second year running in this race but again surely had too much use made of him after travelling strongly.

That left the two Irish challengers, Tornado Flyer and Asterion Forlonge, to fight out the finish, though the latter failed to complete for the second start running having been three lengths down (and probably held) when falling at the last. With the race providing more questions than answers, I have taken a conservative view for now but even so Tornado Flyer has achieved his highest ever rating on 167, with Asterion Forlonge on 164+. The maths and standards suggest a few lbs higher which may prove to be the case down the line, as both horses are very unexposed over three miles plus.

Over at Leopardstown, A Plus Tard looked the obvious answer to the Savills Chase and he was sent off at odds on. Second in last season’s Gold Cup and a highly impressive winner of the Betfair Chase at Haydock on his reappearance, A Plus Tard was largely untroubled through the race and looked likely to win when taking over the lead from the game Kemboy approaching the last. However, the warning signs were quickly evident as he struggled to fend off the rallying Kemboy and was then chinned close home by the strong-staying Galvin who had briefly looked tapped for toe. With Kemboy, Melon and Janidil all running somewhere close to their recent best, it’s hard to get Galvin above his new rating of 168 but this represents further progress and his record at Cheltenham will likely make him a popular choice when he lines up for the Gold Cup in March. A Plus Tard, meanwhile, is deemed to have run a few lbs below his best form despite going so close to gaining a second successive victory in the race.

A quick summary of the two staying races in the novice division. Ahoy Senor and Bravemansgame were the obvious pair from the four runners in the Kauto Star at Kempton but the result was very one-sided with the latter trouncing the former. Ahoy Senor, like at Newbury, didn’t always impress with his jumping and certainly needs to brush up in that department. Bravemansgame was largely much better in that regard and was always in control after taking over the lead. The time comparison compared to the King George comes out in the low-to-mid 150s, and a new mark of 156+ for Bravemansgame is slightly higher than he was rated going in. Ahoy Senor is back down to his hurdle mark of 152.

While it is obvious that Bravemansgame is open to further improvement, at the minute I have the front two from Leopardstown’s equivalent Grade 1, Fury Road and Run Wild Fred, rated higher. Contrary to popular belief, this doesn’t mean I believe that this is the ‘true picture’ of events. What itdoes mean is that I believe their performances so far are evidentially stronger taking all things into account. Bravemansgame or others may well progress through the ranks to be top dog by seasons end. Run Wild Fred was already 158 following his runaway handicap success at Navan in November but had to play second best and was quite a few pounds below that at Leopardstown. Fury Road was having only his third fencing start and has quickly found a high level of form. He came through smoothly to take the lead from his stable companion and forged well clear to post a figure of 160+.

Festive cheer once more for Epatante

A second success for Epatante in Kempton’s Grade 1 Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle didn’t tell us a great deal more as regards her claims of reclaiming the Champion Hurdle, and if anything the race was a further demonstration that the cupboard is pretty bare at the top of the 2m hurdling division on this side of the Irish Sea, writes Andrew Mealor…

Five went to post for Christmas Hurdle, but only Epatante and Not So Sleepy (the pair who had dead-heated in the Fighting Fifth last month) were rated 150 or above pre-race, and with the latter clearly not in the same form as at Newcastle (in trouble turning in and finished last of the quintet), Epatante had a pretty simple task as it turned out in beating handicappers Glory and Fortune and Soaring Glory. The margin of victory was only a couple of lengths but she did was what needed and was four lengths clear for much of the run-in before probably idling late on.

Historical standards suggest a figure around 150 for Epatante’s performance but this very much looks a below-par renewal, especially considering the proximity of Glory And Fortune who was the lowest rated of the quintet on 140 coming in. As such, I have taken a more conservative view of proceedings and have Epatante running to a figure of just 141+ in winning. That means a rise to 143 for Glory And Fortune, and he could be on that sort of figure on the form of his Welsh Champion Hurdle win back in October, when he beat subsequent Haydock winner Dans le Vent.


A level a few lbs higher for the race could have been justified through third Soaring Glory (147), but defeats for Glory And Fortune off marks of 142 and 141 in handicaps on his previous couple of starts (albeit with possible excuses) suggest a lower view of his performance and the race as a whole is more realistic for the time being.

Epatante remains on her pre-race rating of 153 (160 in effect in races against the males). Her Champion Hurdle claims were covered in the Fighting Fifth blog and the Christmas Hurdle didn’t alter the view that she’ll need to step up on the form she’s shown in the past two seasons if she’s to regain her crown.

The Christmas Hurdle didn’t even produce the best performance in the 2m division domestically over the festive period. That honour went to Musselburgh’s Betway Hogmaneigh Handicap in which Tommy’s Oscar defied top weight and a mark of 150 pretty readily in scoring by six lengths from southern raider Christopher Wood, earning himself a rise to 156. Small-field graded events will present him with a different test (and opposition), with connections indicating Haydock’s Champion Hurdle Trial will be next, but he’s been very progressive so far this season and has more than earned his place.

The other big race in the division over the festive period was the Grade 1 Coral Finale Hurdle for juveniles at Chepstow on Welsh National day.


The Finale perhaps wasn’t as informative as might have been the case with the fancied pair of Forever Blessed (badly hampered) and Skycutter (keen in front and made a mistake three out) both ending up well beaten, plus they only jumped six of the usual eight hurdles with final flight in the home straight omitted on both circuits. However, it’s hard to knock Porticello who relished the emphasis on stamina in the conditions in running out an eight-and-a-half length winner from Saint Segal (keen and shaped well) and Forever William. He moves up 3 lb to 135, the same mark as his Summit Hurdle conqueror Knight Supreme. That’s a fairly conservative view of the race historically so there is scope for the level to move up in time if the form works out.

In truth, this season’s juveniles haven’t looked a strong bunch thus far with the best of them domestically clustered in the mid-to-low 130s, and the clear standard setter in the division at this stage looks to be Gordon Elliott’s Fil Dor who maintained his unbeaten record over timber with a seven-length success in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown on Boxing Day. He doesn’t have a published mark in Ireland as yet but I have him on a provisional 142 as things stand.
 
Late update....

Tornado whips up a storm
04 Jan 22

This time last year I was bemoaning the fact that the staying chase division was very hard to read, with an ever revolving order of merit due to constant upsets and below-par performances. Fast forward twelve months and the picture looks remarkably similar, with the two big races over the Christmas period doing little to clarify matters at the top of the division.

Let’s start at home in what looked a very open Ladbrokes King George at Kempton in which the betting didn’t really reflect previous achievements/ratings. Not for the first time in this race numerous horses failed to give their running, notably the early pacesetters Minella Indo and Frodon, and the gambled- on Chantry House. The first two almost certainly paid for going hard early, while Chantry House didn’t jump anywhere near well enough. Dual winner Clan des Obeaux came out of the race with some credit but was a still long way below his best, while Saint Calvados (making his debut for Paul Nicholls) shaped really well for the second year running in this race but again surely had too much use made of him after travelling strongly.

That left the two Irish challengers, Tornado Flyer and Asterion Forlonge, to fight out the finish, though the latter failed to complete for the second start running having been three lengths down (and probably held) when falling at the last. With the race providing more questions than answers, I have taken a conservative view for now but even so Tornado Flyer has achieved his highest ever rating on 167, with Asterion Forlonge on 164+. The maths and standards suggest a few lbs higher which may prove to be the case down the line, as both horses are very unexposed over three miles plus.

Over at Leopardstown, A Plus Tard looked the obvious answer to the Savills Chase and he was sent off at odds on. Second in last season’s Gold Cup and a highly impressive winner of the Betfair Chase at Haydock on his reappearance, A Plus Tard was largely untroubled through the race and looked likely to win when taking over the lead from the game Kemboy approaching the last. However, the warning signs were quickly evident as he struggled to fend off the rallying Kemboy and was then chinned close home by the strong-staying Galvin who had briefly looked tapped for toe. With Kemboy, Melon and Janidil all running somewhere close to their recent best, it’s hard to get Galvin above his new rating of 168 but this represents further progress and his record at Cheltenham will likely make him a popular choice when he lines up for the Gold Cup in March. A Plus Tard, meanwhile, is deemed to have run a few lbs below his best form despite going so close to gaining a second successive victory in the race.

A quick summary of the two staying races in the novice division. Ahoy Senor and Bravemansgame were the obvious pair from the four runners in the Kauto Star at Kempton but the result was very one-sided with the latter trouncing the former. Ahoy Senor, like at Newbury, didn’t always impress with his jumping and certainly needs to brush up in that department. Bravemansgame was largely much better in that regard and was always in control after taking over the lead. The time comparison compared to the King George comes out in the low-to-mid 150s, and a new mark of 156+ for Bravemansgame is slightly higher than he was rated going in. Ahoy Senor is back down to his hurdle mark of 152.

While it is obvious that Bravemansgame is open to further improvement, at the minute I have the front two from Leopardstown’s equivalent Grade 1, Fury Road and Run Wild Fred, rated higher. Contrary to popular belief, this doesn’t mean I believe that this is the ‘true picture’ of events. What itdoes mean is that I believe their performances so far are evidentially stronger taking all things into account. Bravemansgame or others may well progress through the ranks to be top dog by seasons end. Run Wild Fred was already 158 following his runaway handicap success at Navan in November but had to play second best and was quite a few pounds below that at Leopardstown. Fury Road was having only his third fencing start and has quickly found a high level of form. He came through smoothly to take the lead from his stable companion and forged well clear to post a figure of 160+.

Festive cheer once more for Epatante

A second success for Epatante in Kempton’s Grade 1 Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle didn’t tell us a great deal more as regards her claims of reclaiming the Champion Hurdle, and if anything the race was a further demonstration that the cupboard is pretty bare at the top of the 2m hurdling division on this side of the Irish Sea, writes Andrew Mealor…

Five went to post for Christmas Hurdle, but only Epatante and Not So Sleepy (the pair who had dead-heated in the Fighting Fifth last month) were rated 150 or above pre-race, and with the latter clearly not in the same form as at Newcastle (in trouble turning in and finished last of the quintet), Epatante had a pretty simple task as it turned out in beating handicappers Glory and Fortune and Soaring Glory. The margin of victory was only a couple of lengths but she did was what needed and was four lengths clear for much of the run-in before probably idling late on.

Historical standards suggest a figure around 150 for Epatante’s performance but this very much looks a below-par renewal, especially considering the proximity of Glory And Fortune who was the lowest rated of the quintet on 140 coming in. As such, I have taken a more conservative view of proceedings and have Epatante running to a figure of just 141+ in winning. That means a rise to 143 for Glory And Fortune, and he could be on that sort of figure on the form of his Welsh Champion Hurdle win back in October, when he beat subsequent Haydock winner Dans le Vent.


A level a few lbs higher for the race could have been justified through third Soaring Glory (147), but defeats for Glory And Fortune off marks of 142 and 141 in handicaps on his previous couple of starts (albeit with possible excuses) suggest a lower view of his performance and the race as a whole is more realistic for the time being.

Epatante remains on her pre-race rating of 153 (160 in effect in races against the males). Her Champion Hurdle claims were covered in the Fighting Fifth blog and the Christmas Hurdle didn’t alter the view that she’ll need to step up on the form she’s shown in the past two seasons if she’s to regain her crown.

The Christmas Hurdle didn’t even produce the best performance in the 2m division domestically over the festive period. That honour went to Musselburgh’s Betway Hogmaneigh Handicap in which Tommy’s Oscar defied top weight and a mark of 150 pretty readily in scoring by six lengths from southern raider Christopher Wood, earning himself a rise to 156. Small-field graded events will present him with a different test (and opposition), with connections indicating Haydock’s Champion Hurdle Trial will be next, but he’s been very progressive so far this season and has more than earned his place.

The other big race in the division over the festive period was the Grade 1 Coral Finale Hurdle for juveniles at Chepstow on Welsh National day.


The Finale perhaps wasn’t as informative as might have been the case with the fancied pair of Forever Blessed (badly hampered) and Skycutter (keen in front and made a mistake three out) both ending up well beaten, plus they only jumped six of the usual eight hurdles with final flight in the home straight omitted on both circuits. However, it’s hard to knock Porticello who relished the emphasis on stamina in the conditions in running out an eight-and-a-half length winner from Saint Segal (keen and shaped well) and Forever William. He moves up 3 lb to 135, the same mark as his Summit Hurdle conqueror Knight Supreme. That’s a fairly conservative view of the race historically so there is scope for the level to move up in time if the form works out.

In truth, this season’s juveniles haven’t looked a strong bunch thus far with the best of them domestically clustered in the mid-to-low 130s, and the clear standard setter in the division at this stage looks to be Gordon Elliott’s Fil Dor who maintained his unbeaten record over timber with a seven-length success in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown on Boxing Day. He doesn’t have a published mark in Ireland as yet but I have him on a provisional 142 as things stand.
 
The 2022 Cheltenham Festival Handicappers Blog
22 Mar 22

The 2022 Boodles Gold Cup looked to be all about the Irish Challengers beforehand and so it proved, writes Martin Greenwood, though at least the GB contingent managed a third and a fifth from their five runners, Protektorat doing best of those despite ploughing through the last.

Last season’s first two again dominated this time around but the positions were swapped in no uncertain manner. Minella Indo had been very low key hitherto in 2021/22 but probably ran his best race of the season. Having kicked on off what looked only a reasonable gallop turning in, he had them all in trouble at that point, including briefly A Plus Tard who was boxed in behind a wall of horses. However, A Plus Tard responded magnificently and surged up to join the leader at the last having got a run and simply sprinted clear in devasting fashion to put fifteen lengths between himself and Minella Indo by the line, leaving the strong impression there was plenty still in the tank.

Minella Indo was probably better than the final result in that he pressed on and possibly did too much too soon, and he looked likely to beat the rest much further than he eventually managed. Galvin was the other major Irish fancy having beaten A Plus Tard at Leopardstown over Christmas but he was readily outpaced here and probably requires a better gallop and/or stronger test of stamina. Galvin’s pre-race rating of 168 remains, and it will be interesting to see if connections go down the Grand National route. Minella Indo’s rating is now 169, which is 6 lbs lower than his peak from a year ago.

A Plus Tard’s new rating will be in a different parish to those two, however. While it is very probable this is a clear personal best, it is worth remembering his rout in the Betfair at Haydock earlier in the season could have been rated higher, and those two emphatic wins are only slightly tainted by his defeat at the hands of Galvin at Leopardstown in between. Average historic standards on the winner suggest somewhere in the mid-170s, which means everything else has run to low-to-mid 160s at best. Add to that the ease of victory and we are talking a new figure of 180, which is the best in the Gold Cup since Bobs Worth in 2013. Having passed his big exam with flying colours, it almost goes without saying that A Plus Tard will be top of the class for some time to come.

Earlier in the week the best UK and Irish staying novices mainly manged to miss each other with basically all-Irish affairs in the NH Chase and Golden Miller, while the UK appeared to have the upper hand going into the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase on Wednesday. The heavy rain ruled out leading fancy Bravemansgame as well as Irish challenger Fury Road, but it still looked an interesting race nonetheless. L’Homme Presse and Ahoy Senor now headed the ratings with some unexposed Irish challengers not far behind in the embryonic pecking order.

The GB-trained pair also headed the betting and they dominated for much of the race, duelling for the lead from the get-go. L’Homme Presse travelled powerfully throughout and jumped superbly, which is more than can be said about Ahoy Senor who continues to be let down by his jumping. The latter was shuffled a little down the pack due to fencing errors and it soon became apparent that L’Homme Presse’s main rival would be the equally strong-travelling Farouk D’Alene. However, while you can’t be certain as to what would definitely have happened, in my opinion the latter had just begun to come to the end of his tether when coming to grief at the second last.

L’Homme Presse was never in any danger afterwards even though, to his immense credit, Ahoy Senor stayed on most strongly again from the last. The latter remains on his pre-race 157 and looks capable of making his mark in big staying handicap chases next season at the very least, as long as the jumping issues are sorted out. L’Homme Presse is now rated 164 (from 159) and proved his stamina after being campaigned over shorter distances previously – that rating is broadly in line with the best performances in this race in recent years. His jumping will stand him in good stead and he looks a very exciting prospect for the remainder of this season and beyond. Personal bests were also achieved by Gaillard du Mesnil (155) and Farouk D’Alene (157), the latter rated as if finishing alongside Ahoy Senor.

Ryanair repeat for dominant Allaho

Allaho produced one of the performances of the 2021 Cheltenham Festival with a scintillating twelve-length success in the Ryanair Chase and there was a certain sense of déjà vu in his successful defence of the race this time around, writes Michael Harris…

In similar style to last year, it was a dominant front-running display and bar a minor error at the last fence, it was another superb performance to cement his place at the top of the two and a half mile chase division. In winning last year (174), Allaho produced the best performance in the history of this race, surpassing Vautour’s 173 figure from 2016. His 2022 effort looks every bit as good. In defeating Janidil (164) and Eldorado Allen (163 from 166), I have settled on a figure of 176 for Allaho. That currently makes him the joint-third highest-rated chaser in training, on a par with Chacun Pour Soi and behind only Gold Cup winner A Plus Tard (180) and Shishkin (177).

Only four runners went to post for the Marsh Golden Miller Novices’ Chase, but it was one of the most intriguing clashes of the week with two of last year’s festival winners going head-to-head. Galopin des Champs had been very impressive on his two chase starts (already a Grade 1 winner) and went into the race as the highest rated novice chaser of the season on 164. Bob Olinger (160 from 161) looked his most formidable opponent to date but after a mistake four out he struggled to match Galopin des Champs and was well held before the unfortunate last fence incident for the leader. Even when left clear, it looked fairly hard work for Bob Olinger on the run to the line and all things considered I don’t think he was able to show his true form on the day. I have him running to 155 and have credited Galopin des Champs with a figure of 169. That cements the latter’s position as the leading novice chaser of the season, 5 lb clear of fellow Grade 1 winners L’Homme Presse and Bravemansgame (both 164). He’s clearly a very exciting prospect for the future.

Champion Chase anti-climax

The Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase was the feature race on day two of the Festival and it had the makings of being the race of the week with the three leading performers of the season at that stage all lining up – Shishkin headed the pecking order with an official rating of 177, followed by Chacun Pour Soi (176) and Energumene (175), writes Chris Nash…

However, it was a day of heavy rain and rapidly softening ground and those conditions seemingly took their toll on Shishkin as he never travelled with any fluency and was pulled up around halfway. Shortly after his exit Chacun Pour Soi, who was lobbing along in front, departed, which left Energumene with a much easier task than looked likely three minutes earlier. He made absolutely no mistake, travelling into contention smoothly to lead jumping two out and coming clear up the hill for hands and heels only. At the line he was eight and a half lengths clear of Funambule Sivola, with a further four and a half lengths back to Envoi Allen in third.

The last ten winners of this race ran figures ranging from 167 to 188 and they averaged out at 172, and applying race standards to the contest also gave a figure of 172 for the winner. That looked a perfectly good fit, so I have Energumene running a bare figure of 172+ on the day with any upgrade for the style and ease of his victory catered for in his pre-race rating of 175, which remains unchanged. That has Funambule Sivola running a figure of 163 which rates a career best – he has been quietly progressive through the season so this further step forward is easily justifiable. Envoi Allen recorded a figure of 159 in third. He arrived here rated 161 in Ireland so has largely run his race. Connections of Shishkin reported that his performance was entirely ground related and that there is a chance of him running at Aintree, whilst Chacun Pour Soi and Energumene may well head to Punchestown, where both were successful last year.

The Sporting Life Arkle was run on the first day of the meeting, so on plenty quicker ground than the Champion Chase, a fact highlighted by the novices running a time fifteen seconds faster. The leader, Magic Daze, bowled along keenly and set a reasonable tempo – the race time dipped under standard and the contest looked a fair enough test. Edwardstone went into the race the top-rated at 159 and justified that position with a commanding victory, coming home four and a half lengths clear of Gabynako, with another three and a half lengths back to Blue Lord in third.

The last ten winners of this contest range from 159 to 169 and average out at 163, and race standards produced a figure of 160 for the winner. That looked a perfectly viable level for the race so I have Edwardstone running a figure of 160+ and the decisive nature of his victory meant I was happy to upgrade him slightly from that figure and allocate him a revised rating of 161. Gabynako ran a career best of 155 in second – he was supplemented for this race and fully justified that decision. Blue Lord records a figure of 152 – he’d won a Grade 1 novice at the Dublin Racing Festival last time out but failed to match that performance here. The 2m novice division might not be as deep as it has been in some years but there is absolutely no doubt that Edwardstone deserves his position at the top of the pile. He has been openly campaigned with this being his sixth run of the season and has won every time he has completed, the Arkle his fourth consecutive Graded race win.

A showdown for the ages?

Honeysuckle retaining her Champion Hurdle crown was supposed to be the headline act on day one of the 2022 Festival but new kid on the block Constitution Hill did his best to steal her thunder with a top-class effort in the Supreme, whetting the appetite for a potential showdown between the pair at Punchestown in six weeks’ time, writes Andrew Mealor…

The Unibet Champion Hurdle was largely about going over old ground for Honeysuckle, with last year’s Supreme winner Appreciate It the only new rival amongst her realistic challengers. She was more workmanlike then when storming home twelve months ago but still ran out a clear-cut winner and once again showed she is the dominant force amongst the established two milers.

Rated 165 after last year’s Champion Hurdle, Honeysuckle hadn’t needed to match that level for her two wins in Ireland earlier in the campaign, latterly a six-and-a-half length defeat of Zanahiyr in the Irish Champion Hurdle, and it was a similar story at Cheltenham. Zanahiyr finished a bit closer to the mare this time, four a half lengths back in third, with the pair split by Epatante, the 2020 winner who went one better than when third last year.

Given those rivals finished closer to Honeysuckle than in previous meetings, allied to a relatively bunched finish overall with just over nine lengths covering the first seven home, it’s hard to rate the Champion Hurdle form highly, and in truth the race wasn’t run in a manner conducive to achieving a high rating.

A winning figure of 158+ for Honeysuckle ties in with the ratings awarded to Epatante (154) and fifth-place Saint Roi (156) in last season’s Anglo-Irish Classification, and also has Zanahiyr (159) running up to his best – with both Honeysuckle and Epatante in receipt of the 7 lb mares allowance, Zanahiyr actually comes out as narrowly the best horse at the weights in the Champion Hurdle, though Honeysuckle retains her higher handicap mark of 165.

Though Honeysuckle hasn’t needed to reproduce her very best form so far in 2021/22, that’s not to say she still doesn’t have that sort of performance in her locker, and she may well need that form and potentially more if the clash with Constitution Hill does materialise, such was the impression Nicky Henderson’s charge made in the Sky Bet Supreme.

A twenty-two length win on its own in what looked a strong renewal beforehand would get the pulse racing, but the evidence on the clock further underlines the merit of Constitution Hill’s performance, albeit in a race that was set up perfectly for a top horse to run a fast time.

With the free-going Dysart Dynamo pressed by Jonbon in front, the pace was strong from the outset, and as early as the second hurdle the Supreme field were already around 18 lengths ahead of their counterparts in the Champion Hurdle. That gap increased to around 26 lengths at the fourth before understandably starting to narrow in the second half of the race. Despite those early exertions, Constitution Hill was still able to run from two out to the line 1.2 seconds quicker than Honeysuckle managed off a steadier pace, and the overall time for the Supreme ended up 5.8 seconds quicker (around twenty-six lengths).

Judged on time alone compared to the other races on the card, Constitution Hill could be rated in the mid-170s, so a form rating of 170 – underpinned by the previous form of the placed horses and historical standards applied to the result – may prove to be conservative. As it is, 170 is the highest rating for a novice over hurdles since the Anglo-Irish Jump Classifications were founded in 1999/2000, eclipsing the 168 rating awarded to Iris’s Gift after he finished second to Baracouda as a novice in the 2003 Stayers’ Hurdle.

As things stand, Honeysuckle’s figure of 165 plus her 7 lb mares allowance gives her the edge on ratings over Constitution Hill, though that doesn’t factor in the latter’s scope for further improvement after just three starts, and I for one certainly wouldn’t back against him ending the mare’s unbeaten record if the clash does take place.

A quick word for Supreme runner-up Jonbon who ran a good race in the circumstances on his first try in Grade 1 company. He’s been nudged up 2 lb to 147, though I fully expect him to better than rating under more favourable circumstances. The 2m Grade 1 novice at Aintree looks the logical next step for him provided the race doesn’t come too soon (finished tired).

Another to put himself potentially in the frame for next year’s Champion Hurdle was Vauban who put his Flat background to good use in what turned into a speed test in the JCB Triumph Hurdle. An Irish whitewash was no great surprise with the GB juveniles looking a very average crop at best this season, and Vauban (151) proved much the best of the visiting party. The winning margin was only two and a half lengths, but the manner in which he picked up on the run-in having given Fil Dor and Pied Piper (both 145) a chance with a slow jump at the last was impressive and he looked to have a good bit in reserve.

Vauban clearly has a lot of potential (both Flat and jumps), though his rating marks him down as only an average Triumph winner at this stage and the principals will have to progress significantly to become genuine Champion Hurdle contenders next season, especially with the likes of Honeysuckle and Constitution Hill around.
 
The 2022 Cheltenham Festival Handicappers Blog
22 Mar 22

The 2022 Boodles Gold Cup looked to be all about the Irish Challengers beforehand and so it proved, writes Martin Greenwood, though at least the GB contingent managed a third and a fifth from their five runners, Protektorat doing best of those despite ploughing through the last.

Last season’s first two again dominated this time around but the positions were swapped in no uncertain manner. Minella Indo had been very low key hitherto in 2021/22 but probably ran his best race of the season. Having kicked on off what looked only a reasonable gallop turning in, he had them all in trouble at that point, including briefly A Plus Tard who was boxed in behind a wall of horses. However, A Plus Tard responded magnificently and surged up to join the leader at the last having got a run and simply sprinted clear in devasting fashion to put fifteen lengths between himself and Minella Indo by the line, leaving the strong impression there was plenty still in the tank.

Minella Indo was probably better than the final result in that he pressed on and possibly did too much too soon, and he looked likely to beat the rest much further than he eventually managed. Galvin was the other major Irish fancy having beaten A Plus Tard at Leopardstown over Christmas but he was readily outpaced here and probably requires a better gallop and/or stronger test of stamina. Galvin’s pre-race rating of 168 remains, and it will be interesting to see if connections go down the Grand National route. Minella Indo’s rating is now 169, which is 6 lbs lower than his peak from a year ago.

A Plus Tard’s new rating will be in a different parish to those two, however. While it is very probable this is a clear personal best, it is worth remembering his rout in the Betfair at Haydock earlier in the season could have been rated higher, and those two emphatic wins are only slightly tainted by his defeat at the hands of Galvin at Leopardstown in between. Average historic standards on the winner suggest somewhere in the mid-170s, which means everything else has run to low-to-mid 160s at best. Add to that the ease of victory and we are talking a new figure of 180, which is the best in the Gold Cup since Bobs Worth in 2013. Having passed his big exam with flying colours, it almost goes without saying that A Plus Tard will be top of the class for some time to come.

Earlier in the week the best UK and Irish staying novices mainly manged to miss each other with basically all-Irish affairs in the NH Chase and Golden Miller, while the UK appeared to have the upper hand going into the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase on Wednesday. The heavy rain ruled out leading fancy Bravemansgame as well as Irish challenger Fury Road, but it still looked an interesting race nonetheless. L’Homme Presse and Ahoy Senor now headed the ratings with some unexposed Irish challengers not far behind in the embryonic pecking order.

The GB-trained pair also headed the betting and they dominated for much of the race, duelling for the lead from the get-go. L’Homme Presse travelled powerfully throughout and jumped superbly, which is more than can be said about Ahoy Senor who continues to be let down by his jumping. The latter was shuffled a little down the pack due to fencing errors and it soon became apparent that L’Homme Presse’s main rival would be the equally strong-travelling Farouk D’Alene. However, while you can’t be certain as to what would definitely have happened, in my opinion the latter had just begun to come to the end of his tether when coming to grief at the second last.

L’Homme Presse was never in any danger afterwards even though, to his immense credit, Ahoy Senor stayed on most strongly again from the last. The latter remains on his pre-race 157 and looks capable of making his mark in big staying handicap chases next season at the very least, as long as the jumping issues are sorted out. L’Homme Presse is now rated 164 (from 159) and proved his stamina after being campaigned over shorter distances previously – that rating is broadly in line with the best performances in this race in recent years. His jumping will stand him in good stead and he looks a very exciting prospect for the remainder of this season and beyond. Personal bests were also achieved by Gaillard du Mesnil (155) and Farouk D’Alene (157), the latter rated as if finishing alongside Ahoy Senor.

Ryanair repeat for dominant Allaho

Allaho produced one of the performances of the 2021 Cheltenham Festival with a scintillating twelve-length success in the Ryanair Chase and there was a certain sense of déjà vu in his successful defence of the race this time around, writes Michael Harris…

In similar style to last year, it was a dominant front-running display and bar a minor error at the last fence, it was another superb performance to cement his place at the top of the two and a half mile chase division. In winning last year (174), Allaho produced the best performance in the history of this race, surpassing Vautour’s 173 figure from 2016. His 2022 effort looks every bit as good. In defeating Janidil (164) and Eldorado Allen (163 from 166), I have settled on a figure of 176 for Allaho. That currently makes him the joint-third highest-rated chaser in training, on a par with Chacun Pour Soi and behind only Gold Cup winner A Plus Tard (180) and Shishkin (177).

Only four runners went to post for the Marsh Golden Miller Novices’ Chase, but it was one of the most intriguing clashes of the week with two of last year’s festival winners going head-to-head. Galopin des Champs had been very impressive on his two chase starts (already a Grade 1 winner) and went into the race as the highest rated novice chaser of the season on 164. Bob Olinger (160 from 161) looked his most formidable opponent to date but after a mistake four out he struggled to match Galopin des Champs and was well held before the unfortunate last fence incident for the leader. Even when left clear, it looked fairly hard work for Bob Olinger on the run to the line and all things considered I don’t think he was able to show his true form on the day. I have him running to 155 and have credited Galopin des Champs with a figure of 169. That cements the latter’s position as the leading novice chaser of the season, 5 lb clear of fellow Grade 1 winners L’Homme Presse and Bravemansgame (both 164). He’s clearly a very exciting prospect for the future.

Champion Chase anti-climax

The Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase was the feature race on day two of the Festival and it had the makings of being the race of the week with the three leading performers of the season at that stage all lining up – Shishkin headed the pecking order with an official rating of 177, followed by Chacun Pour Soi (176) and Energumene (175), writes Chris Nash…

However, it was a day of heavy rain and rapidly softening ground and those conditions seemingly took their toll on Shishkin as he never travelled with any fluency and was pulled up around halfway. Shortly after his exit Chacun Pour Soi, who was lobbing along in front, departed, which left Energumene with a much easier task than looked likely three minutes earlier. He made absolutely no mistake, travelling into contention smoothly to lead jumping two out and coming clear up the hill for hands and heels only. At the line he was eight and a half lengths clear of Funambule Sivola, with a further four and a half lengths back to Envoi Allen in third.

The last ten winners of this race ran figures ranging from 167 to 188 and they averaged out at 172, and applying race standards to the contest also gave a figure of 172 for the winner. That looked a perfectly good fit, so I have Energumene running a bare figure of 172+ on the day with any upgrade for the style and ease of his victory catered for in his pre-race rating of 175, which remains unchanged. That has Funambule Sivola running a figure of 163 which rates a career best – he has been quietly progressive through the season so this further step forward is easily justifiable. Envoi Allen recorded a figure of 159 in third. He arrived here rated 161 in Ireland so has largely run his race. Connections of Shishkin reported that his performance was entirely ground related and that there is a chance of him running at Aintree, whilst Chacun Pour Soi and Energumene may well head to Punchestown, where both were successful last year.

The Sporting Life Arkle was run on the first day of the meeting, so on plenty quicker ground than the Champion Chase, a fact highlighted by the novices running a time fifteen seconds faster. The leader, Magic Daze, bowled along keenly and set a reasonable tempo – the race time dipped under standard and the contest looked a fair enough test. Edwardstone went into the race the top-rated at 159 and justified that position with a commanding victory, coming home four and a half lengths clear of Gabynako, with another three and a half lengths back to Blue Lord in third.

The last ten winners of this contest range from 159 to 169 and average out at 163, and race standards produced a figure of 160 for the winner. That looked a perfectly viable level for the race so I have Edwardstone running a figure of 160+ and the decisive nature of his victory meant I was happy to upgrade him slightly from that figure and allocate him a revised rating of 161. Gabynako ran a career best of 155 in second – he was supplemented for this race and fully justified that decision. Blue Lord records a figure of 152 – he’d won a Grade 1 novice at the Dublin Racing Festival last time out but failed to match that performance here. The 2m novice division might not be as deep as it has been in some years but there is absolutely no doubt that Edwardstone deserves his position at the top of the pile. He has been openly campaigned with this being his sixth run of the season and has won every time he has completed, the Arkle his fourth consecutive Graded race win.

A showdown for the ages?

Honeysuckle retaining her Champion Hurdle crown was supposed to be the headline act on day one of the 2022 Festival but new kid on the block Constitution Hill did his best to steal her thunder with a top-class effort in the Supreme, whetting the appetite for a potential showdown between the pair at Punchestown in six weeks’ time, writes Andrew Mealor…

The Unibet Champion Hurdle was largely about going over old ground for Honeysuckle, with last year’s Supreme winner Appreciate It the only new rival amongst her realistic challengers. She was more workmanlike then when storming home twelve months ago but still ran out a clear-cut winner and once again showed she is the dominant force amongst the established two milers.

Rated 165 after last year’s Champion Hurdle, Honeysuckle hadn’t needed to match that level for her two wins in Ireland earlier in the campaign, latterly a six-and-a-half length defeat of Zanahiyr in the Irish Champion Hurdle, and it was a similar story at Cheltenham. Zanahiyr finished a bit closer to the mare this time, four a half lengths back in third, with the pair split by Epatante, the 2020 winner who went one better than when third last year.

Given those rivals finished closer to Honeysuckle than in previous meetings, allied to a relatively bunched finish overall with just over nine lengths covering the first seven home, it’s hard to rate the Champion Hurdle form highly, and in truth the race wasn’t run in a manner conducive to achieving a high rating.

A winning figure of 158+ for Honeysuckle ties in with the ratings awarded to Epatante (154) and fifth-place Saint Roi (156) in last season’s Anglo-Irish Classification, and also has Zanahiyr (159) running up to his best – with both Honeysuckle and Epatante in receipt of the 7 lb mares allowance, Zanahiyr actually comes out as narrowly the best horse at the weights in the Champion Hurdle, though Honeysuckle retains her higher handicap mark of 165.

Though Honeysuckle hasn’t needed to reproduce her very best form so far in 2021/22, that’s not to say she still doesn’t have that sort of performance in her locker, and she may well need that form and potentially more if the clash with Constitution Hill does materialise, such was the impression Nicky Henderson’s charge made in the Sky Bet Supreme.

A twenty-two length win on its own in what looked a strong renewal beforehand would get the pulse racing, but the evidence on the clock further underlines the merit of Constitution Hill’s performance, albeit in a race that was set up perfectly for a top horse to run a fast time.

With the free-going Dysart Dynamo pressed by Jonbon in front, the pace was strong from the outset, and as early as the second hurdle the Supreme field were already around 18 lengths ahead of their counterparts in the Champion Hurdle. That gap increased to around 26 lengths at the fourth before understandably starting to narrow in the second half of the race. Despite those early exertions, Constitution Hill was still able to run from two out to the line 1.2 seconds quicker than Honeysuckle managed off a steadier pace, and the overall time for the Supreme ended up 5.8 seconds quicker (around twenty-six lengths).

Judged on time alone compared to the other races on the card, Constitution Hill could be rated in the mid-170s, so a form rating of 170 – underpinned by the previous form of the placed horses and historical standards applied to the result – may prove to be conservative. As it is, 170 is the highest rating for a novice over hurdles since the Anglo-Irish Jump Classifications were founded in 1999/2000, eclipsing the 168 rating awarded to Iris’s Gift after he finished second to Baracouda as a novice in the 2003 Stayers’ Hurdle.

As things stand, Honeysuckle’s figure of 165 plus her 7 lb mares allowance gives her the edge on ratings over Constitution Hill, though that doesn’t factor in the latter’s scope for further improvement after just three starts, and I for one certainly wouldn’t back against him ending the mare’s unbeaten record if the clash does take place.

A quick word for Supreme runner-up Jonbon who ran a good race in the circumstances on his first try in Grade 1 company. He’s been nudged up 2 lb to 147, though I fully expect him to better than rating under more favourable circumstances. The 2m Grade 1 novice at Aintree looks the logical next step for him provided the race doesn’t come too soon (finished tired).

Another to put himself potentially in the frame for next year’s Champion Hurdle was Vauban who put his Flat background to good use in what turned into a speed test in the JCB Triumph Hurdle. An Irish whitewash was no great surprise with the GB juveniles looking a very average crop at best this season, and Vauban (151) proved much the best of the visiting party. The winning margin was only two and a half lengths, but the manner in which he picked up on the run-in having given Fil Dor and Pied Piper (both 145) a chance with a slow jump at the last was impressive and he looked to have a good bit in reserve.

Vauban clearly has a lot of potential (both Flat and jumps), though his rating marks him down as only an average Triumph winner at this stage and the principals will have to progress significantly to become genuine Champion Hurdle contenders next season, especially with the likes of Honeysuckle and Constitution Hill around.
 
Back in september MINELLA TRUMPrated 127,up 2lb for a win beat HEWICK half a lenght rated 137 (7) so got 3lb.
Minella trump got put up to 130
130 1st
135 1st
135 1st
136 1st
140 2nd and runs again tomorrow off 140.
So up a total of 15lb for winning 6 races and £40,000

Hewick then won a hurdle off 118 and 2nd in a hurdle off 127.
Then he went to sedgefield where the hcapper gave it a 5lb rise for being beat by MT who went up only 3.
He never looked like getting beat,it wasnt the best of races although at least 2 came out and won.(7lb claimer)
He got put 8lb for that to 150.
so he won one race whereas MT has won 4 since yet hewick is a lb better off if they met tomorrow.but if claims are took into it hewick would be 3lb worse off.
Is Hewick an improving young horse or has the hcapper over reacted.
 
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