The wheels have come off!

Tout Seul

Tout Seul

Senior Jockey
Joined
May 2, 2003
Messages
2,628
This time last year I could do very little wrong. Each day of the Newmaket Festival I put up suggestions for at least one horse that delivered at a good double figure price. I won rather a lot of money and was high on adrenalin, booze and ego. I was able to withdraw several times the original amount of my bank and still leave it a healthy multiple of its start level.
http://talkinghorses.co.uk/forum/showthread.php?p=227014&highlight=hearthstead+maison#post227014

That was then, however at present I'd be dubious about my ability to pick my nose let alone a winner. I do the same amount of research and watching as before and have not changed my process of evaluation but my hit rate has fallen to a level that guarantees poverty if it were to be sustained. Whereas my average hit rate on not-for the-sake of-it bets has been near or better than 50% for many years its fallen way, way below that level. I have had a number of very decent wins ( sometimes with the assistance of some knowledgeable folk on here) but siince I keep records I am not seduced into believing I am winning. Today I had to top up my bank ( not for the first time) in order to be able to lay off a horse that I had backed at much longer odds should it do well before fading ( it didn't do quite as well as anticipated).

Although money is only the the scoring system, what hurts is the dent to one's pride. Am I really a poor judge is the rhetorical question.

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;Oops!

Oh well, tomorrow is a new day and Kingsgate Native and Zaahid can hopefully begin the recovery process.
 
Swings and roundabouts really, isn't it?

You're certainly not alone in finding it hard to follow Kipling's advice BTW; the Betfair forum provides an abundance of evidence in that department!
 
TS -I know where you are coming from.Earlier on this year I had a sustained 4 month winning streak followed by 6 weeks of agony.The lowest point of this agony was the monday before the Derby(a bank holiday in Ireland).That day I backed a 130/1 shot on betfair -beaten a short head after I was convinced it had won-straight after that I laid an odds on shot that only won because of the jockey on the second being incredibly inept after going 1.01 in running.My confidence was so low that I had about 10% of what I wanted to on New Approach for the Derby.I was never so happy to be at the pay out desk.

All I can say is that I have come to the conclusion that the gaff tracks are bleeding me dry.The big meetings are where the money is to be made.
 
Up sticks for a while, pay attention to your inner voice (not the ones that tell you to do bad things to noisy neighbours), he'll know best when to return to the fray in full.
 
Between mid-late June and the end of August last year, I had 37 winning days out of 40. I thought I had finally cracked the game ~ many of my winners were drifters on the machine and some were huge outsiders, but I was enormously confident of my ability to produce profits and often went in much more heavily on the drifters with spectacular results. My last big bet was a four figure punt on Kingsgate Native in the Nunthorpe. I felt great!

Then came September and a two and a half month run with virtually no winning days at all, and it's been decidedly patchy since with an excellent period followed by an equally arid spell. I decided to pull stumps after Cheltenham which was an unmitigated disaster, with a view to wait until midsummer for a chance to bet on markets which are historically more profitable. I'd love to say that I'm winning loads at the moment, but it's early days; the bottom line is that I don't feel under pressure and can bet when I want with a clear head which must be good.
 
rorydelargy said:
Between mid-late June and the end of August last year, I had 37 winning days out of 40. I thought I had finally cracked the game ~

I thought that in 2005 when I was busy getting various accounts restricted and to be honest doing some amazing punting-breaking my record win 3 times in 6 weeks.The wheels did come off but not spectacularly.
One thing I learned from that period is that I wouldn't like my income to be dependent on gambling.Did anyone ever read Steve Palmer in the Racing Post-theres a man who knows about the madness that goes with gambling.
Click to expand...
 
Last year I had a really good year, my best ever betting and between June and November I don't think I had anymore than 5 or 6 losing days.

January (despite clearing big on star) and February however I couldn't back a winner and lost high four figures I decided no more jumps but in March it took off and was my biggest ever winning month. April was another stormer with May looking about break even. A small loss in June.

But I noticed certain factors in these times. Between June and November I was happy with a fiance and things were great. Losing a baby in November and arguing all through December and January, we finally split end of Feb.

March I was single and started going to the gym every day, which I've continued to do. Early last month met someone new and spent less time studying.

So I've come to the conclusion, relationships affect your betting and with that I think unless your in a serious relationship its best to be single otherwise your mind is elsewhere and you don't try hard enough.

That said, I took a good holiday start of March pre Cheltenham and another in June. July has started well mainly thanks to a tri-cast which paid huge on Wednesday.
 
I can see where you're coming from Chris but I find that my relationships don't tend to affect my punting - it's up and down no matter what's going on! My emotions punting tend to be completely separate to emotions in the personal life anyway. It always happens in cycles - you go through periods when everything you're backing either wins or hits the bar at a decent each way price and you feel invincible. Then it all goes pear for a while and no matter what you do you can't find your arse with both hands. Luckily for me, Cheltenham and Aintree always end up going well even if they start badly - my form is a lot more stable over the sticks - but the flat can be in and out. Mind you I go through superb periods - I went to Newmarket soon after I came out of hospital with hardly any money so was betting small and came back with over seven times that amount in cash - had a decent period at the time that carried on in that vein. I suspect that when it comes to the flat I'm more successful at the beginning of the season in maidens particularly when the form has yet to settle, the runners are inexposed and plenty of 'shock results' are there to be had.

A lot of it also has to do with confidence - although that can backfire spectacularly also - in that sometimes in a maiden containing, say, a Gosden 11/10 favourite and you fancy the 20/1 shot from a small unfashionable yard, you have to go through with backing it. Of course that can often go the wrong way too - during a decent period it is so easy to get too confident in yourself and up the stakes, thus leading to disaster, but it can also work in your favour in that confidence is often essential to successful punting. Basically, no matter the results you are having, you sould be able to brush yourself off and enter the breach once more - get back on the horse, so to speak!
 
I r eckon chris has a point - my betting success is easily as erratic as my relationship success....

though I missed out on my relationship bit in April!!!
 
So much wisdom up above and somuch honesty.
Punting is so much like 'yard from' - there seems to be no logic in it - but there is.......

The one thing which I get from the above and know to be true in my own case, is to back off when losing: don't chase losses; re-group and you'll find your winning streak again, with a little tweaking. Always sit down and work out what you've been doing wrong
 
One week on and apart from one absent-minded and losing wager,abstinence. Looking at results I would't have done well which is a relief
 
I tend to do ok up to and including the Derby but from Royal Ascot thru to Goodwood is usually a bad period for me. October is usually my best month.

After New Approach`s Derby i was 35 points up. Now after my second worst Royal Ascot ever and a terribly misjudged lay of Red Rocks last Saturday i find myself 22 points down. I badly need Youmzain to win next week.
 
I tend to find a period (usually about early June) where I'm trying too hard if that makes sense. What I tend to do is look for the 'clever' value and where as I might alight on a 25/1 that should be half that price, it still doesn't win. I think there's sometimes a case to be made for not looking beyond the obvious and keeping it simple
 
Quote:Rory
Quote
Originally Posted by Desperate Dan
It`s a mugs game (unfortunately!!). Back Spurs to win the Premiership!! You know it makes sense!!!

Desperate Dan out?
__________________

Trouble making, R*v*n*e off**ial. Think he has a secret thing for the Spurs or else he's simply jealous. Good thing I am not susceptible to wind up merchants.;)
 
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