The Will WIN prostitution thread. . .

  • Thread starter Thread starter SlimChance
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SlimChance said:
Leopardstown 3.25

The UK raider Stomachion rated 99 runs here. If you're a 99 horse in the UK you'll win a listed race over here because Gary O'Brien invariably rates horse half a stone too high. This horse probably has a bit in hand on his UK mark so is the proverbial good thing today over this extended trip. I can see this getting smashed up and hacking up.
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Stomachion won [UK] off 92 last time so his 99 marks looks like his new UK rating. I tend to think Irish ORs are a good 5-7lbs lower than what they should be (hence they tend to be well handicapped when running in the UK off their Irish mark.

That isn't to say Stomachion can't/won't win today but I'd be a bit wary about how competitive he can be off that mark although the form book did say he looked better than a handicapper last time.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I tend to think Irish ORs are a good 5-7lbs lower than what they should be (hence they tend to be well handicapped when running in the UK off their Irish mark.
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On the flat? I couldn't possibly agree. The Hong Kong handicapper automatically drops Irish horses when they go over there because their marks are inflated.
 
Aye, and the UK handicapper routinely raises Irish Flat horses when they come over here.
Would have backed Stomachion at the early 6's as he'll probably find a few pounds for the stiffer test, and he's SMS's first h/c runner in Ireland since God was a lad, but he's no good thing due to the discrepancy in OR's for the 2 countries.
 
I think the market will love him and send him off 9/4 on Betfair. At 4/1 5 places e/w this is a must bet. I'd fancy a UK 99 horse to win a listed race over here no problem.
 
reet hard said:
Aye, and the UK handicapper routinely raises Irish Flat horses when they come over here.
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Surely that backs up my point?

Stomachion races off the same mark as in the UK. Transfer the race [in theory] to Newmarket and the handicapper would put the Irish runners up because they're too low so they're that much better off back there.
 
How that got beat I don't know but believe it or not I won few quid by trading out on the photo.........One to follow but won't be 9/4 the next time we see him, looked like he may have blew up after the last.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Surely that backs up my point?

Stomachion races off the same mark as in the UK. Transfer the race [in theory] to Newmarket and the handicapper would put the Irish runners up because they're too low so they're that much better off back there.
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He means the jumps though. What flat horse has got raised in the UK? It doesn't happen. UK horses clean up over here in the handicaps and listed races on the level.
 
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Leopardstown 4.35
Kaleefa 5/2 (Stan James) (9/4 VCbet) (2/1 Boyles/Bet365)

13/8 shot.
 
SlimChance said:
He means the jumps though. What flat horse has got raised in the UK? It doesn't happen. UK horses clean up over here in the handicaps and listed races on the level.
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He uses the word 'Flat' in his post.

I'd need to go through a number of the handicaps (probably the heritage ones) to verify that the UK handicapper does raise them when they come over.

I don't follow the Irish handicaps unless they relate somewhere along the line to UK ones that I'm studying but I'd be pretty sure UK winners in them are pretty few and far between.

I'd check it out using RI but don't know how, to my shame, to make that kind of query.
 
Group 3 - 111 rated UK horse (now 115) beats 119 and 118 Irish horses with a UK 111 horse in fourth
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/re...lts_top_tabs=re_&results_bottom_tabs=ANALYSIS

Premier Handicap - UK trained 1-2
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/re...lts_top_tabs=re_&results_bottom_tabs=ANALYSIS

This link argues your point but I don't think this is the case and one year/crop does not change the tendencies of the Irish handicapper.

https://betting.betfair.com/horse-r...h-sea-to-beat-the-handicapper-190213-293.html
 
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SlimChance said:
Leopardstown 3.25

The UK raider Stomachion rated 99 runs here. If you're a 99 horse in the UK you'll win a listed race over here because Gary O'Brien invariably rates horse half a stone too high. This horse probably has a bit in hand on his UK mark so is the proverbial good thing today over this extended trip. I can see this getting smashed up and hacking up.
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That went well then!
 
SlimChance said:
That went well then!
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You need to listen to yer ol' Uncle Mo, Slim :p

Seriously, though, the handicapping thing needs more looking into. I know the jumps raiders are hiked when they come over here unless, I'm sure, their OR is already above a certain mark (135?)

I may have been getting mixed up with that and the fact that ordinary Irish handicaps tend to be much more competitive than the class equivalents over here, where you might get 8 runners, five or six of which won't be trying too hard, chasing an £8k pot whereas in Ireland you'll get 20+ runners in a similar race. Even if half aren't trying too hard, the ones that are will make it more competitive than the UK race. I don't know if you've noticed but you'll see my ratings for Irish horses in UK handicaps tend to be 3-4lbs higher than RPRs (while the UK ones tend to be 2-3lbs lower). It's maybe that interpretation on my part rather than anything official I was thinking of.

Must check out that Betfair link, though.
 
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I asked Simon Rowlands of Timeform for his thoughts:

@RowleyfileTF: @dioraeg Slightly better UK --> Ire (52.3% RB), slightly worse Ire --> UK (48.0%). A/E is 1.45 and 0.88 respectively (smallish samples).
 
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