I've put this one up on Substack under the Point Blank banner:
I’m not going down the tipping route, don’t worry.
open.substack.com
If you're not interested in Substack:
The market for the last race at Bellewstown appears to have been shaped by one good judge putting up Light Up The Dark.
At 9am it looked like this:
9/4 Light Up The Dark
15/8 Zanahiyr
Now it sits:
7/4 Light Up The Dark
3/1 Zanahiyr
Like Hugh Taylor, he’s an exceptional judge, but the market basically lets him dictate prices — and he won’t get every race right all the time. It’s easy to see why a horse like Zanahiyr is a favourite you’d look to take on. He’s a quirky sort who isn’t always in the mood. But at his best he ran 3rd in a Champion Hurdle behind Constitution Hill and State Man. If you want a laugh, that run was 2.25l ahead of Vauban — what price would Vauban be here off a mark of 76?!
Racing doesn’t work like that, but it does make you ask: what mark is Zanahiyr capable of running to on the flat? He’s only had five flat runs, four of them five years ago, and one of those was a 7f maiden. On his latest flat start at Killarney, he finished 4th to three very solid horses — form I’d rate strongly. They’ll have learnt plenty.
He needs a strong pace or perhaps — whisper this softly — to make the running. With the excellent Josh Williamson on board (yes, I’ve forgiven him for Tramore) claiming 7lb, he effectively runs here off 68, which is absolutely bonkers to my mind.
Two runs at Galway mean there are no fitness worries, and this is probably a nice tune-up for Listowel — but one where there’s no point not trying to win.
The market is giving us a massive discount to put all of this into practice, and this is the time to play.
7.55 Bellewstown — Zanahiyr 5/2 or better
