• REGISTER NOW!! Why? Because you can't do much without having been registered!

    At the moment you have limited access to view all discussions - and most importantly, you haven't joined our community. What are you waiting for? Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so please, join Join Talking Horses here!

The Will Win Thread

Slim said:
Cheltenham 1.15 (Saturday)
Major Fortune 13/2 or bigger

One of the best handicapped horses I’ve ever bet on in my life was when it got beaten off 81 at Exeter. But I got mine back and loads more as the season progressed.

This is a beautiful traveller, and while he has form in deep ground, he doesn’t need it. Any rain overnight will be welcome, though. He won first time out by accident last season, and I think they had to change track with him. His spins over fences have been quiet ones, and this is the important part — this horse is well handicapped over fences, but he’s unlikely to be a Cheltenham horse.

This looks like a typical Dan Skelton project, mopping up a Saturday handicap. He stays well, but he’s such a sweet traveller that 2m4f will be fine, provided he jumps well. I’m assuming this is a plot and tomorrow is the day. If I’m wrong, I’ll reassess depending on how he jumps, but 9/1 was miles too big. I thought he was about a 4/1 or 9/2 shot, and if he travels like I think he can, he’ll be an easy watch.
Click to expand...
Like with my essays, by the time I'd finished reading it the price had gone.

I tell a lie!

Still 17/2 with Hills - if you can get on!
 
Don't be too despondent, Slim. I looked at yesterday's card, marked off the Skelton horse when it was 11/4, watched it go out to 14/1 and get home first in a photo without a penny on it.

It happens as often as shit happens.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Don't be too despondent, Slim. I looked at yesterday's card, marked off the Skelton horse when it was 11/4, watched it go out to 14/1 and get home first in a photo without a penny on it.

It happens as often as shit happens.
Click to expand...

By the formbook I'd struggle to see how it's a 20/1 shot.
 
Springs A Girl was the name flying around as value in the circles I move in yesterday afternoon and evening and that one has certainly shortened up.

But it's never over until it's over and sometimes the small money overnight and morning headbangers get it into their heads a horse isn't busy (when it is) and drive it all the way out to the edge of the world.

As I'm sure we all know, it's the last five minutes before post time that count - if it's still a monster price as they face the tapes, that's the time to wonder if it's wanted or not IMO.

Kudos to Slim as always - drift or not, win or not - for putting one up with a strong case....it's what I read the forum for.
 
Don't know whether to laugh or cry.
A profit but could have been a lot more.
Took 7/1 and finished 25/1
Thanks Slim.
 
I stuck some sweetie money on it at 22/1 and got the BOG so the place money will cover another such bet.

Skelton either got it badly wrong or fvcked it up.

If it genuinely wasn't off he had no need to be so serious on it from the home turn.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I stuck some sweetie money on it at 22/1 and got the BOG so the place money will cover another such bet.

Skelton either got it badly wrong or fvcked it up.

If it genuinely wasn't off he had no need to be so serious on it from the home turn.
Click to expand...
I dont think it was off, fairly obvious from the start. But Skelton always likes the hero rides from the back so who f$%^ing knows.

My assessment was race fell apart, and Skelton ‘nursed his into it’ if it picked up the pieces so be it. Absolutely one for the tracker though. Theres a good pot to be won with that.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I stuck some sweetie money on it at 22/1 and got the BOG so the place money will cover another such bet.

Skelton either got it badly wrong or fvcked it up.

If it genuinely wasn't off he had no need to be so serious on it from the home turn.
Click to expand...

100% wasn’t off, but so well handicapped the horse nearly got them into trouble. Could’ve won from two out if he’d wanted to. Dan Skelton had a sour puss on him, the cheating bastard.
 
Double J said:
I dont think it was off, fairly obvious from the start. But Skelton always likes the hero rides from the back so who f$%^ing knows.

My assessment was race fell apart, and Skelton ‘nursed his into it’ if it picked up the pieces so be it. Absolutely one for the tracker though. Theres a good pot to be won with that.
Click to expand...

Not one c*** will miss it next time, that's the problem.
 
The thing is, they're just as likely to run it down the park until the real target, whatever that might be.

Most of the Fehily club 'jobs' tend to attract money, which would support the idea of its not being off today but, as I say, they had one yesterday that went from 11/4jf at the final dec stage to 14/1 but ended up having to get very serious with it to beat a Thomwas-Johnston job debutant that was backed in from 33s to 11s.
 
Slim said:
Not one c*** will miss it next time, that's the problem.
Click to expand...
Seeing it line up towards the front when off, with an SP of 7/2 in a 16 runner handicap will cause severe head loss.

T’was a great shout anyhow. Fairly obvious with the SP that today wasn’t the day.
 

Recent Blog Posts

Back
Top