Thoughts on Royal Ascot

Diamond Geezer

Gone But Not Forgotten
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May 2, 2003
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Preview in SL of the main races on the first two days

Queen Anne Stakes

The winner of this year's running of the opening race of Royal Ascot will have a lot to live up to as it has been won in the previous three years by multiple Group 1 winners Goldikova, Canford Cliffs and Frankel.

The race has been boosted by the presence of Dubai World Cup and Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom who is likely to start at a very short price in a bid to become the latest international star to be successful at the Royal meeting. If he runs up to form, he'll win but he wouldn't be the first globe-trotting superstar to run below par after such a long journey.

His main opposition is likely to come from Aidan O'Brien's Declaration Of War who disappointed in the Lockinge last time out. He needs to step up on the form he has shown so far but connections are adamant he will prove himself to be a top-class performer in time.

"The race has been boosted by the presence of Dubai World Cup and Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom who is likely to start at a very short price"
A more potent threat from Ireland could come from his stablemate Most Improved, who won the St James' Palace at last year's Royal meeting. He has yet to start for the Coolmore operation and will have to improve on his last three starts for Brian Meehan last year when he was tailed off at Deauville, Newmarket and Ascot.

Nevertheless, it wouldn't be the biggest shock in the world if the four-year-old found improvement for the switch of stable and he clearly likes the Ascot turf. The filly Elusive Kate shouldn't be underestimated either and she is the one most likely to capitalise should Animal Kingdom not give his running. She was twice third behind Excelebration in two Group 1 events last year and was a convincing winner of the Prix Rothschild at Deauville in July. In a race that lacks any sort of depth behind the favourite, she appeals as the each-way selection.

King's Stand Stakes

The King's Stand Stakes, run over the minimum trip of five furlongs, often goes to an international raider and this year's favourite, Shea Shea, certainly looks the one to beat following his victory in the Al Quoz Sprint at Meydan at the end of March.

Moreover, there is a doubt over his ability to perform to his full capabilities following a global campaign but he's had a long time to acclimatise following his journey over from Dubai and there is no finer trainer than Mike de Kock for producing international raiders cherry-ripe on the day.

The favourite aside, it looks a wide-open race with the next few in the market all closely matched. Sole Power and Kingsgate Native are old adversaries and should run well while the Australian raider, Shamexpress, comes to Royal Ascot as a bit of an unknown having finished well behind Black Caviar back in February.

"If Reckless Abandon can reproduce this effort, he has every chance of turning the tables on his conqueror and remains a sprinter of some potential"
One sprinter who could easily improve from his first outing is Reckless Abandon and Clive Cox's colt was arguably unlucky not to have beaten Kingsgate Native at Haydock having done the best of the group that raced on the far side. If he can reproduce this effort, he has every chance of turning the tables on his conqueror and remains a sprinter of some potential having carried all before him at five and six furlongs as a juvenile.

Roger Charlton is adamant that we've not seen the best of Mince so far this year but she also holds an alternative engagement in the Diamond Jubilee and it has to be noted that all bar one of her wins have come from August onwards.

Another filly to note is Rosdhu Queen who looked very promising as a juvenile and ran like a non-stayer when fourth in the Fred Darling at Newbury. Back at a sprinting trip, she is still very unexposed and it be interesting to see whether William Haggas drops her back to five or six furlongs on her next start.

St James's Palace Stakes

The St James's Palace Stakes is the premier race for three-year-olds over a mile at the Royal meeting and is usually the next stop for the winner of the 2000 Guineas.

However, Dawn Approach will not line up for the race following his recent disappointment in the Derby which should leave the path clear for Ballydoyle's Magician who was impressive when landing the Irish equivalent at The Curragh. Given the fact he had won the Dee Stakes at Chester on his previous start, connections seriously considered running the son of Galileo in the Derby but the decision to give this race the swerve could pay dividends at Royal Ascot.

"Given the fact Magician had won the Dee Stakes at Chester on his previous start, connections seriously considered running the son of Galileo in the Derby but the decision to give that race the swerve could pay dividends at Royal Ascot"
His main market rival is likely to be Toronado who is on something of a recovery mission following a slightly disappointing display in the 2000 Guineas. Richard Hannon's colt travelled well enough at Newmarket but couldn't go the pace with Dawn Approach in the latter stages but connections have always held him in the highest regard and it could just be that a different horse turns up at Royal Ascot.

Toronado's stablemate, Olympic Glory, is another on a retrieval mission having ran a very flat race in the French 2000 Guineas at Longchamp last time out. He had previously only been beaten by Dawn Approach in last year's Coventry Stakes and had looked like he retained all of his ability when winning the Greenham Stakes on his seasonal reappearance.

Richard Fahey's Garswood could line up in this race but is another who will have to improve on his Guineas performance. He found trouble in that particular race but actually ran one of the fastest furlongs of the entire field at one point. He shouldn't be written off just yet, though he may make up into a sprinter in time.

Prince Of Wales's Stakes

This year's Prince Of Wales's Stakes, run over ten furlongs at Royal Ascot, has lost a little of its lustre following the news that runaway Lockinge winner Farhh will miss the race after he was found to be lame a fortnight before the race.

This has seen a shake-up in the market which has promoted Al Kazeem and Camelot to the head of the betting with some firms having a slight preference for the former after he defeated last year's Derby winner in the Tattersalls' Gold Cup at The Curragh last time out.

However, they may well line-up against two very talented members of the opposite sex and both Snow Fairy and The Fugue shouldn't be discounted in what looks an open renewal of the Group One event. Ed Dunlop's mare hasn't been seen since her victory in the Irish Champion Stakes and her very best form entitles her to win this comfortably.

"Snow Fairy hasn't been seen since her victory in the Irish Champion Stakes and her very best form entitles her to win this comfortably."
Her form has reached new levels in recent years and she has only been campaigned at Group One level since her victory in the Oaks at Epsom. Since her defeat in the St Leger (where she was a patent non-stayer), she has only been beaten by horses such as Midday, So You Think, Danedream and Cirrus Des Aigles and there is nothing of that calibre in this year's race.

The Fugue also appeals at a bigger price and is another filly that can make big strides as an older campaigner. On her form last year, it appears that ten furlongs is her optimum trip and she was particularly impressive when taking the Musidora and Nassau Stakes over this distance. Her style of running meant that she found trouble both in the Oaks and in the Filly & Mare Turf at Santa Anita on her last start. She may well have won both and comes into this season as an intriguing contender for all the big ten furlong races.

Royal Hunt Cup

The Royal Hunt, over Ascot's straight mile, is one of the trickiest handicaps of the flat calendar but is a fiercely competitive betting heat and this year's running looks no different. Two horses stand out at the weights and recent history suggests you need a 95-plus rated horse to have a chance of winning this race.

Trade Commissioner always looked the type to be better than a handicapper last season and although his form tailed off towards the end of the year, he is very lightly-raced for a five-year-old and it is interesting that connections have persevered with him. His two forays into Group company were fairly uninspiring but it could just be that he needs very quick ground to be seen at his best which he only got on a couple of occasions last year. His form began to tail off as the ground got softer but he's certainly worth keeping an eye on as this type of test could bring out the best in him.

"Trade Commissioner always looked the type to be better than a handicapper last season and it is interesting that connections have persevered with him."
There is a bit of rain forecast from Wednesday onwards at Ascot and if it does arrive, the other runner that makes some appeal is last year's Britannia Stakes winner Fast Or Free who hasn't been seen since last year's meeting. He won three on the trot for William Haggas last year and if the ground has a bit of cut in it, then the four-year-old could easily defy an absence of nearly a year at one of his favourite tracks.

The first two home last year in the shape of Prince Of Johanne and Excellent Guest love it at Ascot and could easily figure again. The former is back down to the same mark he won off last year while the latter deservedly got his head in front in the Victoria Cup over a furlong shorter last time out and is clearly in good heart.
 
Took 20s about Elusive Kate earlier last week. Silly price.

I like Reckless Abadon against the Aussie horse in the King's Stand as well and also Gordon Lord Byron in the Diamond Jubilee. He was drawn the wrong side in the Duke of York and is too big relative to Society Rock.
 
Slight bias but Sovereign Debt will run another big race.
Personally can't understand the betting with him at worse case he's a trade to lay in running as he travels so sweet.
 
Have put something together for Timeform on the top 20 juveniles to have run so far.

Full article can be viewed here

But list of the horses is as follows

Timeform's Top 20 Juveniles (as of 10/6/13)
109p Stubbs
108p Sandiva
107p Coach House
103p Thunder Strike
101p Saayerr
100p Anticipated
100 Heart Focus, Rizeena, Sacha Park
99p Toormore
98p Astaire, Beldale Memory, Ertijaal
97p Najm Suhail
97+ Justice Day
97 Club Wexford, Steventon Star
96p Fine 'N Dandy, Green Door, Peniaphobia
 
From SL

Gold Cup

The Gold Cup at Royal Ascot is the longest Group One race in the British racing calendar and this year's race has an open look to it as the majority of the main contenders all have a question to answer.

The 2010 winner Rite Of Passage made a pleasing comeback at the end of last season when he beat Aiken by a neck in the Long Distance Cup on British Champions Day at Ascot and looks the one to beat given his previous course form. He is clearly fragile though and punters would be advised to make sure he gets to the racecourse before they entertain backing him.

Saddler's Rock was third to Colour Vision and Opinion Poll in last year's race but turned the tables on the winner in the Goodwood Cup next time out and has run respectably in all the big staying races since.

"Estimate treated the crowd to a Royal winner last year when she ran away with the Queen's Vase. The extreme trip promises to be in her favour and her presence adds a little extra spice to a fascinating line-up."
Another interesting contender is Simenon who landed both the Ascot Stakes and Queen Alexandra Stakes at last year's meeting and who made a pleasing reappearance on the level in the Chester Cup, where he was fourth behind Address Unknown. He could easily run a big race at a big price at a track he loves.

Last year's Gold Cup winner Colour Vision could have a big say as the trip clearly suits him well but the fly in the ointment could be the Royal filly Estimate. Sir Michael Stoute's four-year-old treated the crowd to a Royal winner at last year's meeting when she ran away with the Queen's Vase and she's showed herself to be a cut above the average winner of that race by winning the Sagaro Stakes back in May. The extreme trip promises to be in her favour and her presence adds a little extra spice to what is already a fascinating line-up.

Coronation Stakes

The Coronation Stakes, run over a mile for three-year-old fillies, often sees the main protagonists from the 1000 Guineas lock horns once again and this year's renewal is no exception, with both Sky Lantern and Just The Judge reopposing each other once more.

The former put a disappointing run in the Nell Gwyn behind her by winning the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket while the latter went one better in the Irish equivalent when beating Rehn's Nest by a length-and-a-quarter. Sky Lantern was well behind Flotilla in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and Mikel Delzangles filly is a fascinating contender given she picked up where she left off last season with a smooth victory in the French 1000 Guineas at Longchamp.

"Sky Lantern was well behind Flotilla at the Breeders' Cup and Mikel Dezangles filly is a fascinating contender given she picked up where she left off with a smooth victory in the French 1000 Guineas."
The impeccably-bred Hot Snap, who was so impressive when winning the Nell Gwyn, is a possibility as she looks to bounce back from a very disappointing run in the 1000 Guineas and it is far too early to be writing Sir Henry Cecil's filly off given her trainer's record with the fairer sex.

Lovely Pass, who landed the UAE 1000 Guineas for disgraced trainer Mahmood Al Zarooni, is also a possible for 'new' trainer Saeed bin Suroor and she would also be interesting judged on her victory in a conditions race at Ascot at the back end of last season. Big Break made her seasonal reappearance in the Irish 1000 Guineas and she wasn't beaten too far by Just The Judge on just her fourth start. Her trainer does very well with fillies that he brings along slowly (trained Princess Highway to win the Group One Ribblesdale Stakes last year) and this patient approach could work the oracle with this well-regarded daughter of Dansili.

Diamond Jubilee Stakes

The shape of the Diamond Jubilee, run over six furlongs on the final day of Royal Ascot, only really starts to form once the result of the King's Stand Stakes is known four days earlier. It is very common for a horse to take part in both, though only the Australian sprint sensation Choisir has managed to complete the double.

South African raider Shea Shea is a warm favourite for the King's Stand Stakes but Mike de Kock has indicated that his six-year-old is unlikely to take his chance in this race as well.

However, if he does, he will be running against some very talented six furlong performers including the 2011 winner Society Rock who showed he was as good as ever last time out when winning the Group Two Duke Of York Stakes at York under a Group One penalty.

"Society Rock's victory in the Haydock Sprint Cup last September cemented his position as one of the very best sprinters of his generation and he should run a very big race at a track he loves."
His victory in the Haydock Sprint Cup last September cemented his position as one of the very best sprinters of his generation and he should run a very big race once more at a track he loves.

Gordon Lord Byron has emerged as a major force over the past year and he made an encouraging return after competing in Dubai when third behind Society Rock, also under a penalty. He lined up in the Wokingham 12 months ago and, although only 14th, he was beaten under five lengths.

Australian sprinters have a fine record at Royal Ascot over the years and they could be represented by both Sea Siren and Shamexpress although the latter is also engaged for the King's Stand as are Sole Power, Reckless Abandon and Mince.

Wokingham Stakes

The Wokingham Stakes, run over six furlongs, is another fiendishly difficult handicap to solve at Royal Ascot. Dandy Boy's victory at 33/1 halted a run of three fancied winners, including Laddies Poker Two, who landed an almighty gamble when winning the race in 2010.

Sir Michael Stoute's Duke Of Firenze is likely to be very popular after he landed the 'Dash' at Epsom on Derby day and is clearly a sprinter with more to offer judged on his two runs this season. It took a while for his trainer to find his best trip, having run him over seven furlongs and a mile earlier on in his career, but this regally-bred son of Group 1 winner Nannina had excelled over shorter trips this season and could easily end up running in Group races himself by the end of the season.

Only a nose separated Nocturn and Enrol at the end of their last race at Newmarket and the way the latter was finishing that day, she could easily turn the tables for the same connections as favourite Duke Of Firenze.

"Duke Of Firenze is clearly a sprinter with more to offer and has excelled over shorter trips this season. He could easily end up running in Group races by the end of the season."
Rex Imperator has often been backed as if defeat is out of the question and he looked good on his day for trainer Roger Charlton last season. He is now with William Haggas (after a brief stay with David Nicholls) and he looked on his way back when runner-up behind Diescentric at Doncaster at the beginning of June. That particular race was over seven furlongs but a strongly-run six should hold no problems.

Henry Candy hinted after the Epsom 'Dash' that Dinkum Diamond could step up in trip to six furlongs to contest the Wokingham and if the five-year-old handles the trip well, then there is no reason why he cannot finish in the frame. He has only tried six furlongs three times in his career and there may be a little bit of improvement at this trip.
 
Bolger now states Dawn Approach could well run in the SJP - I'm surprised but there you go!
 
Can see the logic though. What was the alternative, the Eclipse? Over a mile and a quarter and a turn a repeat of Epsom was possible.
 
Logic target would have been the Prix Jacques Le Marois or the Sussex

I dont think he will beat Magician if the ground is fast
 
st james palace looks to be far & away the best race of the meeting but i'd find it hard to pick a winner. could see any of the main 3 winning.
 
I am personally looking forward to trying to solve the handicaps more than ever before, although I'm no Tom Segal. The first day brings us the Ascot Stakes, a long distance handicap, and Homeric from the Ed Dunlop yard catches the eye as a horse who could be well ahead of his handicap mark. He did not beat a great deal last time but it was significant that when stepped up in trip he has delivered the goods. He's so lightly raced, and hence I see a horse (rated 90 now) that could easily finish the season rated 10-15 pounds higher.

I'm not sure how many Ascot Stakes winners really went on to progress further through the ranks into group company, but Homeric looks a candidate. No doubt there will be other likely improvers in the field, be interesting to see if Ryan Moore rides him again, as he did at Kempton. I wanted him to run in the Northumberland Plate where he is also entered, but will wait and see what happens.

Homeric probably one to consider on Tuesday...obviously will be a hard race to find the winner though. :)
 
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Im with you on that one HR, Theres something daunting but ever so fun and satisfying about getting stuck into the formbook for a big field handicap.
 
Animal Kingdom is surely very short for a horse with no UK form at all . I hope Elusive Kate runs - she goes well fresh and has proper G1 form - unlike the rest of the ropey looking field and she is value - especially ew .
 
I'll happily forget Epsom and give Dawn Approach another chance.

Shea Shea look like a bit of a machine but will need luck in running if brought with a late run. So much can go wrong in these types of races I'll be laying him.

As edgt points out Saddler's Rock is being touted for this. It's very open so an EW bet on him looks as good as any.

If the POW is a match between Al Kazeem and Camelot then that looks an easy puzzle to solve. I wouldn't back Camelot with bad money Once a boat always a boat and even AOB couldn't improve the winner of the worst Derby I've seen....Al Kazeem is my *** bet of the meeting
 
I had a look at the AK-C race last week. I'll revisit it again before Tuesday but my gut tells me AK isn't as good as the commercial guys are saying. I think Camelot has been miles off form this season, even when he won.

It may be that AK ends up the selection on account of a lack of opposition but I'll be looking elsewhere.
 
Agree with DO that can pick holes in Al Kazeem's form. Would like to back The Fugue in this, but waiting for Gosden to declare what the plan is. Mile and a quarter on fast ground is her best trip. She could have too much toe for Camelot and Al Kazeem, and I just think she's better than Maxios.
 
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