Thursday 5th March - Today's Bets, Betting, Race & Runner Analysis + Future Pointers

[chaumi]

Running total going into 5th March : +109.6

First pass on today's runners.

I can name a dead cert today: following this list blindly is extremely unlikely to result in a clean closing line. Many of these will need much deeper consideration race-by-race.

Having said that, one or two look unexposedly nice on paper. So, let's see how it goes while keeping a sensible perspective on the show...



Francisco 1.53 Ling

Tomoe Gozen 2.10 St Cloud

C'Est Ta Chance 2.28 Thurles

Hello Luna 2.53 Ling

Boston Breeze/Lucky Crystal/Calm Flight Ahead 3.30 Thurles All to watch for handicaps, but outside chances something could run into 4th.

Maizieres 3.40 St Cloud

Sunday Sinatra 4.00 Ling May just have an experience edge over the Bethell favorite, who could well street this.

Daddy Chill 4.33 Ling

Oaks Soldier/My Good Pal 4.38 Thurles

Valiant Soldier 4.45 Wincanton Tricky bumper but logically the winner has to come from 5 or 6. Valiant will likely need soft ground (and likely a different track), so see how it's riding.

Propre Soeur 4.46 St Cloud

Natzor 4.55 Newc

Keeper Of Secrets 5.08 Ling

Bobs House 5.13 Thurles Shouldn't get within 30-50 lengths of the winner here, but might be OK under a different jockey further on. See if there are any signs of anything there.

Baignade 5.19 St Cloud Did me a favour at 22-1 last time. This will be tougher, but might have found his sparkle. There's an outside chance will still be in the 20s.

Talis Evolvere 6.30 Newc I'd prefer a mile. What are you doing, Hannon? This will need thinking about, for sure.

Panthere Noir/Laser Luck 7.00 Newc Depends how far up or down the day is - probably a race to leave well alone.

Pop Star 7.30 Newc As above

 

[moviebuff]

nice shooting yesterday, avoid these rags at your peril... joined you with Pop star in the 7:30, a shot in the dark with Moretons in the 5:30 for me also, keep it going fella....

 

[chaumi]

a shot in the dark with Moretons in the 5:30 for me also....

I could see the case for Moretons. Personally, I'm always dubious about anything on a stable move first run. Came in from around 100 to 60 over the last 5 mins pre-race and, I would say, ran promisingly front rank until the others got away from 2f out.

Let's not forget this one. Next time, hopefully with Amy riding again

 

[chaumi]

Not a million miles (well, actually less than about 3 inches) off a 250-1 winner today. Super exciting finish, the win was potentially on throughout the final two furlongs. A protracted adrenaline release, to be sure.

Day summary:



Francisco 1.53 Ling Not big enough, no bet. Maybe worth a try in something where he'll get some pace.

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Tomoe Gozen 2.10 St Cloud

Took 78 the win with a small bet. Got swamped after trying to front run it. Wrong tactics I think, likely needed 10f + and the idea (or at least my idea) was to settle and run through the faders.

-1

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C'Est Ta Chance 2.28 Thurles

I really didn't believe C'Est Ta Chance had too much to worry about. Nearly went for it, but bottled it at 5.8. Partly because he owed me nothing after the last win. But still we have to class that as one that got away.

No bet. But an easy winner.

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Hello Luna 2.53 Ling Not big enough. But Luna won't be backable anywhere and at any price after this.

No bet.

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Boston Breeze/Lucky Crystal/Calm Flight Ahead 3.30 Thurles All to watch for handicaps, but outside chances could run into 4th.

Took 16, 17, and 32 4 places respectively.

Boston Breeze was the one who made it - and the only one to go off in the front rank. The other two played the usual Irish maiden 'two races' game, neither anywhere near the places at the end. Lucky Crystal probably wants two and a half to three, Calm Flight Ahead may well one day be a Rothwell special.

+14

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Maizieres 3.40 St Cloud Not big enough. Made a little progress from the back into midfield in the final 2. Maybe 12f is worth a try.

No bet

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Sunday Sinatra 4.00 Ling May just have an experience edge over the Bethell favorite who could well street this.

Didn't expect Sinatra to beat Bradbury, but the 55 for the RFC looked playable for fun. And 6.4 3 places looked OK.

-2 Think they finished last and second last LOL

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Daddy Chill 4.33 Ling

The Daddy had nothing to give here at 50.

-1

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Oaks Soldier/My Good Pal 4.38 Thurles

14 and 42 for the wins were fair enough. Was expecting single figure odds for Oaks. Places not worth it in either the 3 or 4 markets.

Oaks had it won at the last if he could keep going, but the only one near him found a bit more and there was around an inch in it at the line. Shame, but nice run and great fun.

-2

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Valiant Soldier 4.45 Wincanton Tricky bumper but logically the winner has to come from 5 or 6. Valiant will likely need soft ground so see how it's riding.

Valiant was 50 but not worth the bet, couldn't see him handling at least three or four of these on reasonable ground at Wincanton. Still finished 5th, though, and I think this was a fairly strong race. He would have been inconvenienced (ground/track), which suggests he'll be a nice bet in a hurdle over a distance down the line.

No bet.

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Propre Soeur 4.46 St Cloud Not big enough, no bet. But nowhere anyway.

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Natzor 4.55 Newc

Took an average of 250 the win and 16 4 places.

Oh wow. That was fun. Was just about 2 inches in front 50 yards out and flying, thought he might be able to pull away, but two came down the inside. Got the 4th place in a 'five across the line' finish of inches.

+15

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Keeper Of Secrets 5.08 Ling

29 the win was very fair and 8.29 2 places.

Ran a nice race, forced wide off the final bend, and I'd say that cost him either the win or 2nd place at the least.

-2

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Bobs House 5.13 Thurles Shouldn't get within 30-50 lengths of the winner here, but might be OK under a different jockey further on. See if there are any signs of anything there.

Weakened out of it as expected, didn't learn much. But could be worth a go if well into the 100s and up if they try another bumper under a different jockey.

No bet.

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Baignade 5.19 St Cloud Did me a favour at 22-1 last time. This will be tougher, but might have found his sparkle. There's an outside chance will still be in the 20s.

17.5 wasn't big enough. Raced out back and did make some good headway a furlong out, but not good enough to reach the leaders. Might be OK in a weaker race if a big enough price.

No bet.

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Talis Evolvere 6.30 Newc

I'd prefer a mile. What are you doing, Hannon? This will need thinking about, for sure.

Well I did think about it. And concluded that with Doctor Khan Junior going off in front - hopefully at a strong pace and potentially forced by one or two others - Talis might sit just off them in a race that could feel more like a mile than 7f.

So, 8.2 Talis seemed a veritable gift. Hit it quite hard.

Talis confounded it somewhat by going off in front, basically had it won 10 yards from the line, I believe the jockey stopped riding half a stride from the finish thinking he'd won it...and the silly sod was half-inched on the line.

I'd imagine Hannon wasn't overly happy. I wasn't either!

But these things happen!

-1

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Panthere Noir/Laser Luck 7.00 Newc Depends how far up or down the day is - probably a race to leave well alone.

In positive territory at this point, so chanced these at 30 odd and around 70 for the wins. No luck, but both can have another day.

-2

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Pop Star 7.30 Newc As above

Left this one alone, no bet.

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Figures for the day : +18

Starting out on the day at +109.6

Running total now +127.6


I would suggest that could be considered an unlucky day with three beaten by inches. But sometimes they go your way, sometimes they don't. On to tomorrow!