Time to Give Up?

  • Thread starter Thread starter numbersix
  • Start date Start date
N

numbersix

Guest
I had a week off betting, and on Friday evening an old friend and I discussed tactics of betting over some beers.

I have had a really frustrating time of it this year, with the worst part of my backing being the terrible record of odds on shots I backed to win which have cost me dear.

So today I resolved not to back the odds on shots to win but to lay them as over time I am bound to make a small profit. So what happens? First up a debutant turns me over - every odds on debutant I back to win gets beat!

Then I lay Stoute's Ave as he has been in modest form of late, and surely Ryan will find trouble in running. For the first time I can recall Ryan sends a stoute 2yo to the front, makes his own fractions, and wins easy.

Finally I hoped the stiff Hamilton hill in the mud would be the undoing of the Prescott filly - on countless times in the past I have lumped on odds on shots from Newmarket at northern tracks who get turned over in the mud. And she was on a hat-trick - how many horses achieve that feat. But she wins.

Today I think for the first time in my life I have realised that racing is about luck and you either have it or you dont. I cannot remember 3 odds on shots winning on the bounce on a Monday before, and yet as soon as I change my strategy from back to lay I get done. I am seriously p**sed off and considering quitting for good.

The temptation now will be to win back my losses by reverting to a back to win strategy on the remaining "hot shots" today, only I bet they all lose and finish my bank off completely!
 
Sounds like time for a break to me - probably best to knock a zero off the stakes, try to treat it as if it wasn't (easier said than done) and wait till you start finding form.
 
Well I launched a fightback with the Hannon animal Speedy Cleaners to place at 1.94. Got half the losses back, but then dived in with another lay on Johnston's Crackdown at Leics. I cannot believe it - on another Monday I would have had 5 winning bets (including Speedy Cleaners) - and yet adopting a lay strategy threatens to wipe me out.

The last time I went for a lay strategy was in 2006 between Feb and March - that cleaned me out as well.

I guess there is a special mindset required for successful laying and I clearly do not have it!
 
Well, I deduced that if you cant beat em join em - so I lumped on the Gosden horse Expresso Star in the Hamilton maiden. Ok it wins, but the 2nd fav is withdrawn so the R4 will wipe out half my profit. When your luck is down boy is it down.

Sorry to post this up here today but I really felt refreshed and good about my betting before today, thought I had got my head around laying. Yet now I feel as despondent about betting as I ever have!!!
 
Halving your stakes sounds like a good idea tbh. Play in smaller sums and you can experiment a bit more ie. laying the odds-on's rather than backing them, following certain yards etc.
 
I`ve had the worst three months of my punting life but i`ve identified what i`ve been doing wrong and have made up some stringent rules that should help in the future. Laying horses i`ve already backed, having too much liabilty on lays and going in big on odds-on shots on sports betting (something i`ve never gone on the gee-gees) has been killing me. If I don`t follow these rules i`ll be closing my Betfair account. I actually feel really positive now that i`ve sorted it out.
 
Try: halve your number of bets.
Keep the same stakes; list the day's 'normal' bets; remove 50% of them, with no argument.

Good Luck with it.

Regards
 
i wouldn't worry No6

according to Betfair...99.5% of punters lose..which means most folk...except on messageboards...where 99.5% are all winners

in fact at the last count on TRF..only me and Dave Jay admitted to being losers..out of all their members:D;):rolleyes:

just goes to show you can't believe too much on boards when folk start biggin their sens up.


personally..I take a break when I hit a bad un..do a bit of studying for a week or two...leave the money aspect out of it...freshens you up

all the best
 
Laying horses that you would have previously backed seems like a bizarre betting strategy if you don't mind me saying so!
 
Not at all bizarre Maruco - you back them at 7.8 say and lay them at 3.5 for the same stake. You lose nothing if it gets beaten and you win if it wins. Failing that getting out IR at 1.1 is another strategy some use. You can ensure profit whatever happens :)
 
EC1 said:
personally..I take a break when I hit a bad un..do a bit of studying for a week or two...leave the money aspect out of it...freshens you up

all the best
Click to expand...

This is exactly what I do. Its the old saying,back to basics. You will always have a bad run sometime its knowing when to stop on that run & take that break but,obviously, from a financial point of view, the sooner the better:p
 
I have an awful flat season and have been sitting back for two months. Hard at first but I will wait until the jumps get into full swing.
Truth be told I am surprised I miss it so little.
 
numbersix said:
I had a week off betting, and on Friday evening an old friend and I discussed tactics of betting over some beers.

I have had a really frustrating time of it this year, with the worst part of my backing being the terrible record of odds on shots I backed to win which have cost me dear.

So today I resolved not to back the odds on shots to win but to lay them as over time I am bound to make a small profit. So what happens? First up a debutant turns me over - every odds on debutant I back to win gets beat!

Then I lay Stoute's Ave as he has been in modest form of late, and surely Ryan will find trouble in running. For the first time I can recall Ryan sends a stoute 2yo to the front, makes his own fractions, and wins easy.

Finally I hoped the stiff Hamilton hill in the mud would be the undoing of the Prescott filly - on countless times in the past I have lumped on odds on shots from Newmarket at northern tracks who get turned over in the mud. And she was on a hat-trick - how many horses achieve that feat. But she wins.

Today I think for the first time in my life I have realised that racing is about luck and you either have it or you dont. I cannot remember 3 odds on shots winning on the bounce on a Monday before, and yet as soon as I change my strategy from back to lay I get done. I am seriously p**sed off and considering quitting for good.

The temptation now will be to win back my losses by reverting to a back to win strategy on the remaining "hot shots" today, only I bet they all lose and finish my bank off completely!
Click to expand...

May I say thank you very much for my winnings today, the golden rule of laying odds on shots, is not taking on ones which are so highly regarded and opposing a Pivotal is soft ground off the same mark it won off last week, isn't exactly a great move.
 
Thanks for all the input. At the risk of being a complete aftertimer, I managed to recoup more losses in the last at Kempton by backing the Cecil animal (ridden by Jimmy Quinn as mentioned in my Cecil thread), but still down on the day.

This year has been the worst on record for me - 8 straight losing months. What has hurt is that the win strike rate is 38% but that counts for little when you are showing a loss. I guess part of my problem has been not staking enough on the longer shot fancies, and putting too much faith in the short priced favourites - which is why I ended up today missing 4 winners and losing on them by laying instead.

I take cheeks point - ignoring the form and employing a "blind" strategy is bordering on the reckless, but I thought I would try and put my experience of losing on this type of horse to good use today - only to burn my fingers.

Maruco, I understand your point, however the Gosden 2 yo was a debutant, Ave was 10/1 on debut (I think) so I did not back her at Salisbury, and the Johnston 2 yo was also a horse I had never backed before. I did back Prescription on debut, when she was all at sea on soft ground having missed the break, and I did feel that today she would be anchored by the ground. I was of course wrong.

I take it Gareth you are joking???? Although I must confess often on "chases" I have ended up piling on loads on a supposed 4/5 certainty (usually trained by Stoute and ridden by Ryan) that wipes me out!

I think after today's experience I need to approach tomorrow with the confidence to continue incorporating laying into my armoury, but perhaps be more discerning.
 
Numbersix,

if you got out of trouble by backing the Cecil horse place only (at odds on) in the last, then you got very lucky. You sound like you're a bit obsessed with either backing or laying odds on shots when you should probably look for a genuine angle. Walking Talking would be a strange place only choice, having a second run back after a long break. No-one has successfully quantified the bounce theory but there is no long term value in backing short priced horses on their second run after a break when they have run very well on debut without time to recover. I'd say you were fortunate today and your approach seems decidedly haphazard. Don't reverse your methods because of short term losses ~ review them certainly, but don't go from back to lay (or vice versa) after a losing run.
 
Rory, I went for years being pretty haphazard, to small stakes. Then in about 2000 I started focusing on short priced horses which I thought were decent bets, and placed bigger stakes. This ticked along ok until from about mid 2005 "chasing" started to creep in. Not sure why, but it did. Anyway, sometimes the "chase" works but as we all know it rarely does.

I guess in the past 9 months the "chase" took its toll, but also the incidence of odds on losers was a worry - to the extent that half of my defeats were courtesy of odds on losses. So I guess where I am at now is to just lay them so as to try and stem the tide. I guess listening to the likes of Freemantle and Mellish I detect that they have been through the pain of odds on defeats and now dont touch them with a barge pole.

Odds on (well I actually got 2.0, and he did drift to 2.12 when I looked last) for a place is imo less hazardous (or at least that is what my stats show). I am in profit on place only odds on bets, but to be fair I usually avoid long odds on "money buying" ones. The Cecil animal looked to me to have retained a lot of his ability following his year+ on the sidelines when he reappeared 9 days ago, and whilst I could not be confident he would win, he was backed with confidence today by the yard (I presume) and I felt he was a decent bet at evens to be in the frame. Was I lucky? Maybe, but I did put a bit of thought into it.

I guess what I am trying to articulate here is the need on my part to be able to assimilate what short priced favs win for me and what ones dont, and then try laying the ones that dont. I guess today was the wrong approach because I went into "blind lay" mode, however I am pretty sure if you laid all debutant odds on 2yos in a season; all odds on 2yos on a hatrick; and all Stoute trained odds on 2yos you would show a profit. I guess I just chose the wrong day to change give my betting strategy an overhaul.

I think I also know what you are driving at too - I am probably an example of a "lazy" gambler, inasmuch as I seem to want a one dimensional path to winning which of course doesn't exists. To some extent you are right, although having resisted a lay strategy for so long due to fingers burnt in 2006, I guess it will take a while for me to confidently incorporate it into my overall strategy in order to lay as often as I back.
 
I think you need very good inside knowledge to lay successfully - more so than to back. It sounds as though a back to lay strategy could be the answer for you

I tend to lose money by chasing too, I was doing very well after 3/4 races today even backing odds on shots, then kept going, increasing my stake by 50% - and lost all my winnings!

I'd take some time off if I were you and just watch and listen - it's a very dodgy time of year too, so many out for an 'educational' at the backend, and others over the top which you can't always see if you aren't at the races... Maybe just stick to the big races?

Others are right though, you are risking longterm defeat if you are depending on a strategy involving odd-on horses - either way. It's finding a bet at a 'good value' esp which others have missed spotting, which brings the big winnings, and that takes a bit of study. If you don't have time for that then don't bet until you do
 
If you have a strike rate of 38% and you're still losing money my assessment would be that you are staking too much on short priced horses.

My own strike rate this year so far is an abysmal 9%, resulting in my being down 3% on turnover to date (still time to make it a winning year!). It generally sits at about 15% winners, for 25% profit.

I recall reading somewhere that people have a tendency to increase their stakes as the price decreases, but that it pays better to do the opposite (and I would say my experience since then backs that up).
 
When I first dabbled in Betfair, my aspiration was to make money laying favourites but I never got round to it, mainly because I wouldn't do it unless I'd put in the same work as I'd normally do in rating a race for punting purposes. I'll probably never get round to it now.

I've actually had one of my best punting Flat seasons. I've had very few bets since the Goodwood festival on account of the persistent soft ground and I've tended to at least not lose much or get close to my money back on the 'bad' days.

Normally I stick to races worth £20k+ but I might be even more selective between now and the Open Meeting, unless we get a belated dry spell.
 
simmo said:
If you have a strike rate of 38% and you're still losing money my assessment would be that you are staking too much on short priced horses.
Click to expand...

Spot on Simmo - odds on shots in particular is where I stake at least double my normal stake, and you only need 2/3 losers on the bounce and you are in trouble. That part of my strategy definitely needs addressing.
 
Back
Top