Tingle Creek Chase

OK, I've now had time to do the race.

I had Kumbeshwaar on 152p going into it and I reckoned a conservative start would be to rate the race around him running to that rating with no improvement. It brought SS out on 170++, the same as my best figure for him last season. So far so good. The down side of that is that everything else underperformed by some way, except maybe Kinkeel.

Next I looked at the times. Only three chses on the day, two of them over the C&D and the other the marathon - never a safe foundation on which to base times, and the hurdles races were all much slower. Captain Conan's race didn't look fast run but at the same time he looked to set a reasonable pace for himself. SS's time rating is 50lbs faster.

I looked again at the finishers behind Sanctuaire. They were all racing with Kumbeshwar for third place so their form might be reliable. I had Idarah on 147p (a few pounds better on his younger form which he was recapturing) so I worked out that using his OR of 145 the figures started to look 'right' for him, His Excellency and an underperforming Sanctuaire. It put SS on 180 on the bare form.

The difficulty with that is that it puts Kumbeshwar on 162p. However, let's assume SS wasnt there and Sanctuaire still went off as fast as he did. We'd be saying Sanctuaire blew himself out and Kumbeshwar slaughtered some nice types. He was on a curve so maybe he deserves a bit of credit.

For the time being, I'm going to work on the assumption that I'm calling this right. It will be my money being bet on the outcome of future races so I need to believe I am right. It might be an expensive mistake if I'm wrong but that's what taking a view is all about, isn't it?

Forget Desert Orchid, Kauto Star, Master Minded and all the others, except Himself, who have arguably put up 190+ ratings in the past.

This Sprinter Sacre looks to have a 200+ in his locker.

Mind you, I thought that about MM after his QM...
 
I find myself on the other side of the argument, DO.

I find the notion that Kumbeshwar is a 160+ animal quite fanciful myself. At the very least, it takes a degree of - 'lateral thinking' lets say - to draw this conclusion; and the race isn't robust enough (from a form-depth/strength perspective), to support such leaps of faith - for my tastes anyway.

Sanctuaire ran more-or-less as I expected; proving the Sandown form with Somersby had been rated too high, and his headstrong style leaving him vulnerable to a stout-enough stayer not far behind in class.

The most plausible outlook, imo, is the one which suggests Sprinter Sacre has had a high-class effort without being extended and winning with any amount in hand.

But the form is too questionable to confidently drag everything up 10+ lbs, in my view. Take Sprinter Sacre out of the race, and you wouldn't be touching it with a bargepole, as far as the rest of the top 2m chases on the calendar are concerned.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Sanctuaire ran more-or-less as I expected; proving the Sandown form with Somersby had been rated too high, and his headstrong style leaving him vulnerable to a stout-enough stayer not far behind in class.
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I never rated that form highly myself.

It's differences of opinion like ours that will create the markets in future races, which can only be healthy for the game!
 
Haven't kept ratings for years, but if I were to now, they'd reflect how horses performed in the circumstances, rather than flatline form.
My take on Saturday's race would be:

Sprinter Sacre 180p
Sanctuaire 156
Kumbeshwar 148

Might not meet with convention, but no great surprises in there (or for the future, I'd venture) and none of this ridiculous bouncing up and down in form of good, consistent horses.
 
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I just don't get how you can have a 32lbs discrepancy between SS and Kumbeshwar on Saturday's performance, reet..........unless you too are adding unsaid poundage to SS's mark for superiority.
 
That is what he is saying, no? In that, his ratings are the superiority he thinks is between the horses as opposed to applying standard (:lol:) handicapping methods.
 
Tingle Creek last Saturday is very difficult to rate at the moment.
My feeling is that Kumbeshwar is better than people think and Sprinter Sacre will be better than 190 horse but we have to wait to see what beaten horses by him do from now.


the race I would want to rate him is running with horses like Sizing Europe and Flemenstar
 
Grasshopper said:
I just don't get how you can have a 32lbs discrepancy between SS and Kumbeshwar on Saturday's performance, reet..........unless you too are adding unsaid poundage to SS's mark for superiority.
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Grass
I'd have Sanctuaire running 7/8 lbs below his best (i.e. 148), but estimate SS could have beaten him 10/15l further if required.
That might not be an exact rating, but neither is anyone else's.:)
Kumbeshwar was never, ever, in the same race as the 2 principals.
 
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Perfectly legit stance to take, reet - and generally aligned to DO's position. If only the OH had been as forthcoming. :D

Maybe I'm too parsimonious in my ratings, but I always prefer caution when the form - insofar as underpinning confidence in the numbers - is so moody.

This wasn't, by any stretch of the imagination, Moscow Flyer vs Azertyuiop vs Well Chief we were watching unfold. Moving SS's rating towards and beyond what these horses achieved - on the strength of a race as flimsy as that? - well, it's somewhere between rank bad-manners and wilful desecration, as far as I'm concerned. :)
 
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reet hard said:
Kumbeshwar was never, ever, in the same race as the 2 principals.
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That's part of what I said; that Sanctuaire blazed off and SS stalked, while the rest had their own little scrap for third place, which Kumbeshwar won by about 15 lengths. I'm rating Kumbeshwar on that line.

Where I disagree with you is your assertion that Sanctuaire ran his race. I think it takes much more of a leap of faith to believe that than to believe Kumbeshwar has progressed well from his last run.

Only a couple of things temper my own faith in my figures for the race. The first is my respect for the opinions of some good analysts on here. They've proved themselves time and tme again as good at reading races. The second is Alan King's tepidity about the horse's prospects. Or is he putting us away?
 
Grasshopper said:
Maybe I'm too parsimonious in my ratings, but I always prefer caution when the form - insofar as underpinning confidence in the numbers - is so moody.
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I keep harping on about this, but for me the key isn't so much what the rating is, it's about understanding what it potentially could be, perhaps much higher or lower, and then weighing such information against the odds.

For example Kumbeshwar next time off 150 in a similar handicap to the one he contested at Chepstow earlier this season. My theoretical home made master rating would probably be less than this. but equally I'd acknowledge given the scope for it to be much higher or lower. If he's 14/1 to beat that mob, I'd be inclined to think I've been on the stingy side, if he's 7/2, I'm likely to be wanting to take him on.

Good ratings aren't so much about the rating that is given on the day, but about how they are back handicapped, either put up or pulled down, once further evidence i.e. subsequent races are available.

To go back to the Flat, it explains why Frankel could be awarded a 147 for the Queen Anne, but Hawk Wing only 136 for not dissimilar visual and distance back to the rest efforts. Frankel had a whole back catalogue of efforts to suggest that kind of rating was within his arsenal, Hawk Wing did not.
 
I don't think anyone disputes that, DJ. Price always plays it's part when it comes to betting i.e the practical application of the rating.

However, I view this this part of the thread more as pointless, esoteric waffling, than any cut-throat dissection of the stiff handicap numbers, with a view to races yet to come. There is undoubtedly an element of that, it's true, but it's principally esoteric waffling, imo.:D
 
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With Sanctuaire, Kumbeshawr and Menorah today
the form of Sprinter Sacre looks like he is going to be a horse to be rated higher than 200
we are in front of a new Arkle
 
A conclusion I already came to in Dec 2011 when I emailed timeform radio and the brilliant David Cleary scoffed at me....More chance of Daniel Day Lewis losing out on the Oscars than Sprinter Sacre not breaking the 200 mark by 2014. If Flemenstar and Sizing Europe turn out for the QMCC and he beats them in the same fashion he won the Arkle my guess is he'll get a 194-196 with a "P" then it's onwards and upwards all being well.
 
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