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Todays Racing -----England--Ireland

luckyme

Apprentice
Joined
Nov 16, 2016
Messages
385
Look I will start this if its not wanted it will fall off the screen, I just think the more we know about each horse the better, some people like to work on only their own thoughts and that's great they can do that but for the novices on here and there are not too many, snippets of info about the days racing ahead may help them. I come across a good bit of stuff daily and will bang it up here, most of it is from a private forum so no the whole world does not know about it. :D well they will now.

Lay of the Day

1345 Dundalk What About Us

Focus is on the Trainer here.
His record with 2yo’s at the Course over the last 5 years is 26/236 which is an 11% strike rate.
The last winner here was 10 October this year and since then he’s had 15 runners and just 1 place. The 2yo form has dropped off the edge of a cliff.
If we look at his overall form under all codes, the last 30 days is 4/67. The AW side of that is 1/26 so it’s not just the 2yo’s he’s struggling with.
Over the last 5 years the Jockey record with 2yo’s at the Course is 0/63.
So, we have a Trainer out of form with a Jockey that doesn’t ride 2yo winners at the course and a price around 2’s.
Data screams opposable and at the price it is a must to taking on.

Big price for the day

Dundalk 4.55 WAYSTAR 2pts e/w 20/1 powers 4places now 25s

I threw my eye on this lad when he ran here two weeks ago when ridden by the Ross Coakley the only jockey to win on the horse however to my untrained eye although it was foggy any horse that runs up the far side or middle of the track is only our for a gallop and that's the route WAYSTAR took. he was beaten 8l finished 8th.
the 2nd in the race THOMPSON GUNNER runs again, oldies on here might remember we got word for it after it ran in a barrier trial two years ago, he was rated as high as 68 and runs off 58 tomorrow I know Colin Keane is a very close friend of the trainers but at such a terrible price, 2/1 I think WAYSTAR is way over priced.
THOMPSON GUNNER will definitely have to improve for tomorrows race if they were messing around with WAYSTAR as THOMPSON GUNNER beat him by 7L when receiving 3LB off WAYSTAR, he now has to give WAYSTAR a whopping 20LB in tomorrows race.

Ok 10LB of that is from an inexperienced claimer however the kid has had 35 rides two winners three 2nds three 3rds and five 4th places so 12 places in the first four from 35 races leaves me thinking he can ride.

Admittingly the trainer could be in much better form but as usual with Dundalk handicaps anything could be placed and I thought WAYSTAR should be no bigger than 12/1



Win Bet
14:10 Ffos Las
Legendary Luke



4/1 (bet365)
"Legendary Luke put in a great winning performance on his debut in an Irish maiden point-to-point at Ballycrystal for Sean Doyle. He came highly recommended and looks another smart recruit to the team. He was a very good 2nd on his bumper debut last month, and he jumps well so should be able to give the favourite a real race here." Trainer


Guys these are just for the guys who might like a odd bet but have no time to study the form only one I backed is Waystar e/w

As I said above this thread may not be for everyone on here but if ya have an opinion good or bad, fire away
 
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Well done tipping up Legendary Luke. I have a tiny interest in this horse through the Racing Club so was delighted to see him win. He jumped quite well apart from over jumping one and then clattering the next (possibly scared himself) and will improve for the experience
 
To be honest Viking I just put up the trainers view of the horse, copy and pasted from some other forum :devilish:
 
Sadly yes, not forecast, well Hexaham's clerk update yesterday was that they don't anticipate any issues/much snow etc :D


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6.40 Kempton

Looks a race that shouldn't take a huge amount of winning with a number of question marks hanging over it. The two main principals ( Euphonia & Mighty Vega ) are returning after an absence, and whilst they could be the pair to beat - they do look short enough to me at around 4/9 and 3's. Lolabella comes next at around 7's and is entitled to improve for a debut forth place at Leicester. However for hopefully a spot of EW value at 50/1 I'm chancing a small interest on Warrior Queen, who despite not achieving much in two starts to date hinted last time out that there maybe some improvement to come - it wouldn't be the biggest of surprises if she was able to pick up a minor placing.

Selecton - Warrior Queen ... EW 50/1
 
This isn't today or even tomorrow but Kiss Will is a shite old price for the Beginners at Fairyhouse on Friday and I have a tracker in it so let's hope some of them are trying.
 
6.40 Kempton

Looks a race that shouldn't take a huge amount of winning with a number of question marks hanging over it. The two main principals ( Euphonia & Mighty Vega ) are returning after an absence, and whilst they could be the pair to beat - they do look short enough to me at around 4/9 and 3's. Lolabella comes next at around 7's and is entitled to improve for a debut forth place at Leicester. However for hopefully a spot of EW value at 50/1 I'm chancing a small interest on Warrior Queen, who despite not achieving much in two starts to date hinted last time out that there maybe some improvement to come - it wouldn't be the biggest of surprises if she was able to pick up a minor placing.

Selecton - Warrior Queen ... EW 50/1

4th 125/1 really unlucky
 
Started 430 for the win on the machine (you know, that thing that's been going 25 years) - "just saying" (as I am led to believe many say).
Unfortunately I can't bet with BF , if so an extra quarter point win at those sort of odds '' just in case '' is always worth it ........ but I imagine the place odds on the exchanges would be much lower than 26.00
 
Sorry guys I was not around yesterday anyway on to today

The lay of the day

1207 Catterick Wasthatok 2.6 b/fair
Won last time out but there are reasons to oppose especially at the price it’s being touted at.
National Hunt record of 2/17 of which Hurdles account for 2/13.
But the wins are 2 ½ years apart so consistency and reliability are not 2 words that spring to mind.
The only Handicap Hurdle win was last time out and that was in a Class 4 over 2m 4f off a mark of 94. On that day the Jockey was claiming 3lb so it ran off 91. The average OR of that race was 103.3.
It was at the bottom of the handicap bar 1, once all the allowances are taken into account.
Both wins came when the going was good/soft or good/yielding so it likes some juice in the ground.
Today’s race is a Class 5 with an average OR of 85 so the quality of the opposition is less but it’s a Handicap Chase.
The selection has only had 1 Chase run in its career in January 2024 where it was beaten 41 lengths.
It’s also over 3m 1f and the furthest the selection has ever raced before is 2m 5f.
Allocated 11st 11lbs which is near to the top of the weights and doesn’t have the concession that he had with the Hurdles win.
Bottom end of a handicap Hurdle is a lot different to top end of a Handicap Chase especially when you add in the extra distance.
The price looks too short and is readily opposable.


Trainer........
14:09 Chepstow
High Tea 4/1 (bet365)
"High Tea put in three good runs over two miles and going up in trip with an extra three furlongs really should help. He must have a great chance"


E/W OF THE DAY

none
 
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This isn't today or even tomorrow but Kiss Will is a shite old price for the Beginners at Fairyhouse on Friday and I have a tracker in it so let's hope some of them are trying.
Tracker won.....these Mullins horses that are a tier below his best novice hurdlers are always worth taking on in Beginners chases.
 
I smell a rat in the 12.08 at Haydock.

On Thursday Sticktotheplan was 9/4f off a rating that would win nine out of ten renewals of the race but money seemed to come for Masked Man taking it into quite a short price and last night when I checked STTP was out to 3/1, which had me seriously tempted but I decided to hold off until this morning for the BOGs.

When I checked a moment ago, STTP was in to 5/4 tops and MM out to 2/1.

Something stinks there. Has word got out that MM isn't off?
 
Ascot 2.05 Rock my way’s a prob but My Silver Lining 14-1. Hay 2.25 Ace of spades 17-2. Hunt 1215 Lelantos 5-1, 1.23 Mr McLoughlan 11-2 all ew
 
Just a few today! Cracking day's racing which I am looking forward to. I am undecided on the bigger races but here are a few I am thinking of after a quick flick through the cards:

Haydock
12.08 Possibly RF Masked Man & Sticktotheplan
1.15 Kabral du Mathan
1.50 Iroko (wind op)
2.25 Ace of Spades (just watched video and he was dossing last time)
3.35 Shomin Uchi (tongue tie) and Saladins Son (used to have a pony called Saladin... :love: )

Ascot
12.55 Bobbi with an I (beat a friends horse and then bled next time but I think it's ok)
2.05 Largy Poet (only as I met him and got cuddles)

Punchestown
12.32 Kitzbuhel
1.05 Koktail Divin
Liked both of these last season and am interested to see them over fences.
 
Well that didn't play out to plan...first two look like they are going to make nice chasers. Skelton's might be worth following back down in his own age handicap?
 
12.32 Punchestown is a sure fire race to follow for handicaps going forward
Very much so - there were some nice physical types in there too. The winner I was impressed by initially I thought he'd win easily but he got headed. Some good jumping got him back in the race and he was very gutsy to get back up and win from his stablemate who is also nice. Worth rewatching the rest of the field too but I suspect the winner will go on to much better things - it was a good run from a learning point of view for him too.
 

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