Triple Crown - California Chrome

C

Chopper

At the Start
Joined
Dec 10, 2012
Messages
88
What price would you take right now on him completing the triple crown in three weeks time for an amount of money that would hurt?

Please don't mention stats, no one cares, just answer the question.
 
watching him in the derby & the preakness i'm not sure he'll get the 12f. and there's talk today of an issue with not being allowed to wear a nasal band maybe stopping him going? probably unlikely that happens though.

hills odds on seems daft and lads 2/1 more like it but freely admit i have no idea what kind of opposition he would face.
 
Hard to know - but 5/2 or bigger at the very least. Looks a pretty weak crop, but I think it is easy to underestimate how difficult a task winning the Triple Crown actually is.

Given the amount of information that is available about American racing (notably sectionals and timed gallops) and the influence of track biases etc, my natural instinct is to think that anyone not following these meetings day in day out and risking an amount of money that would hurt on American racing is an idiot.
 
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@SportsInsights: California Chrome is a -130 favorite to win the Belmont Stakes and complete the first Triple Crown since 1978. http://t.co/Z6Crelj8nI

@ezgoer98: @SportsInsights That's a gift because on-track he's going to be 1-4

I wouldn't put any weight in the second tweet but you get the picture. 2/1 is an absolute rick.
 
Yesterday he ran against lesser horses, the second placed Ride On Curlin was seven lengths adrift of him in the derby. In the Belmont he has to tackle the horses that filled the second through fifth spots in the derby over a trip he isn't entirely bred for.
 
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I'm not fully convinced by him, tbh.
He has undoubtedly looked good when winning the first two legs of the T.C., but was the opposition up to much? This year's 3yo crop appears distinctly average. And the Beyer figure for his Kentucky Derby was lowish.

The Belmont final 1/2 furlong is a ballbreaker that has busted a fair few T.C. contenders in the past. The surface and the extra distance over 12 furlongs may not be to Chrome's liking. I can see him being run down by a grinder like Ride On Curlin, who was running on in the 9.5 furlong Preakness. And there'll be other 12 furlong specialists who have been rested for the past while targetted for the Belmont. Then there will also be the likes of Social Inclusion who acted up badly before the Preakness. ( And I thought Chrome got a dream break from the stalls last night allowing him to run his race whereas a couple of others were disadvantaged).
I can't ignore the obvious arb that exists with the Ladbrokes current price, however ! :o


It will be a fairytale worthy of a future movie if he wins it -- the horse bred out of a $8,000 mare and at a stud fee of $2,000. I would not be unhappy if he did.
 
Miesque said:
Yesterday he ran against lesser horses, the second placed Ride On Curlin was seven lengths adrift of him in the derby. In the Belmont he has to tackle the horses that filled the second through fifth spots in the derby over a trip he isn't entirely bred for.
Click to expand...

In fairness, Ride On Curlin was given an embarrassing ride in the Derby. Was like a rodeo act.

Agreed about the general point though. The other horses must have a significant advantage missing Pimlico, and then you have the likes of the Peter Pan winner entering the mix as well.
 
Social inclusion won't be winning the Belmont, that's for sure! Breeders cup sprint winner in waiting.
 
I'm not sure I agree.
Social's best form to date is at 1 1/8. ( if you ignore his first career race). Winning by ten lengths at 8.5 furlongs, and just losing out by a nose in the Gr1 Wood Memorial over 9 furlongs.
Also, I'm convinced that he ran most of his race in last Saturday's Preakness behind the stalls -- getting very worked up. Still he held on for 3rd behind Chrome .............. although I do accept he was treading water at the 8 furlong marker.

Anyway, my pick for the Belmont at this stage is Tonalist who impressed me in the Peter Pan at the same track in the muck a fortnight ago.
 
Apologies, ........... meant to infer that I don't think Social is nailed-on for the B.C. Sprint, but also neither am suggesting that he is going to win the Belmont either ! :o
 
Again, I'm not saying Social will win. He's been beaten 3 lts at 9 furlong and 7 lts at 9.5 fur, getting passed by horses also entered in the Belmont. But I am saying that I don't think he is a B.C.Sprint winner. My original reference to him was that he was stressed before he entered the stalls -- but still managed 3rd which is no great reflection on Chrome's Preakness win.
 
So NYRA have bent the rules and allowed Chrome to wear nose-strips after all.

Enlightening stat from ESPN:

"California Chrome's 1st 6 career races without nasal strip: 2 wins, $105K earnings.

His last 6 races with nasal strip: 6 wins, $3.35M."

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Would be good to see California Chrome win the triple crown tonight but I think he'll be outstayed.

Commanding Curve to reverse the Kentucky Derby form.
 
Maybe, but both Curve abd Chrome are both too short at current Tote prices. Win or lose. There is clearly emotional wagering going on with Chrome but 4/5 is just silly, and Curve to me doesn't represent any value at 8.
Unfortunately Wicked Strong and Ride on Curlin are also looking overbacked at a measly 8/1 and 5/1 respectively.
The value play has to be Medal Count at this stage at pony.
However, I'm on Samraat to very small stakes at 20's -- hoping for a smart break/make-running race into the frame.
T'is all a kerfuffle. :)
 
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Horrible ride by Espinoza and then he gives a beaten horse a horrible beating that would have got him a long ban over here . American racing is in the dark ages .
 
Well that was worth getting up at 5am (BKK Time) for...........NOT!!!

CC never looked like winning and a strange ride for a horse who's stamina was in question.

Hope someone bagged the winner
 
I had to watch it again Adross because at first I thought he had won........they had the numbers in the wrong order down the back straight which confused me.

Shocking the way he hitting the horse up the straight when he was clearly beaten
 
cc owner saying horse shouldn't be allowed to run in the belmont unless they've ran in the derby & preakness......ermmmmm
 
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