Triple Crown - California Chrome

I never really watch American racing but decide to watch a few races on the build up.

Woodbine was on and a horse called Eff Bee Eye is showing at 3/5 but on Betfair it's like 6/4...............had a few quid on and it slushes up

The next race I look at is at Lousina Downs and some horse called Princess of Pearl is 1/2 but on Betfair 7/4 6/4 11/8 you name it............it won by half the park like a 1/2 should.

I have no idea who these loonies on Betfair are but I hope they keep it up :adore:

Not that it did me any good as I whacked the lot onto CC :(
 
Betfair is far more accurate to the on price screens which are based on the US tote pool.
 
I don't follow what you mean slim.

There was very little money around on Betfair in comparison to UK races and you'd struggle to get a decent bet on at the same price......when I looked you could knock 3 -4 price boxes off the screen with 200 quid.

Eff bee Eye paid $3.80 for $2 and Princess of Pearl Paid $3 for $2

I would have thought the Tote prices near the off would be a better guide to a horses chance especially these 2 as they both won by half the track.

I must be missing something and would be happy to have you enlighten me
 
SlimChance said:
Betfair is far more accurate to the on price screens which are based on the US tote pool.
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More accurate how?
The Tote pools are a far more accurate reflection of where and what the American money is going on than the small layers on Betfair. Last night's Totepool via simulcasting nationwide will probably be shown to have been above $10 million on the race whereas the Betfair traded amount at the Off was £180,000. Betfair might be a more accurate of a horse's chance of winning, but that is a debate for another day. As it stands, the Tote is the better indicator of the weight-of-money for any particular horse in American racing.
 
JamesRB said:
cc owner saying horse unless they've ran in the derby & preakness......ermmmmm
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This fresh shooters is a nonsense.

Tonalist ran 3 times with 3 weeks between races

California Chrome ran 3 races with 2 weeks and 3 weeks between them

A longer break is something Tonalist's owner thought would be ok but at the trip I doubt if California Chrome would have beat him anyway
 
Tanlic said:
Woodbine was on and a horse called Eff Bee Eye is showing at 3/5 but on Betfair it's like 6/4...............had a few quid on and it slushes up

The next race I look at is at Lousina Downs and some horse called Princess of Pearl is 1/2 but on Betfair 7/4 6/4 11/8 you name it............it won by half the park like a 1/2 should.

(
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Just be careful though; at some gaff tracks the money only goes on the Tote in literally the 30 seconds before the Off drastically changing the odds -- 'specially if some "bridgejumper" gets involved. Turf Paradise, Charles Town, Will Rogers, Lousiana are notorious for late money plays.
But in general, I do agree with you. I "do" American racing seven nights a week, and there is most certainly value paradoxes on Betfair v Tote all the time.
 
Poor old CC got his heel badly grabbed by the horse to his right in the stalls as they jumped. Left bulb of his heel completely torn open by toe grab on the other horses shoe. Pics of the incident on Barbara Livingstons page.
 
JamesRB said:
cc owner saying horse shouldn't be allowed to run in the belmont unless they've ran in the derby & preakness......ermmmmm
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Steve Coburn proves himself to be pretty base and petty individual to say that, and then to compound it by claiming that connections of a Belmont winner who hasn't run in the other two T.C. legs are "cowardly".
It seems that California Chrome's less-than-blistering run was down to a painful bleeding hoof injury picked up when leaving the gate rather than anything else.
 
Cheers Ice...Duly noted..I sort of suspected that might be the case but I only had like 50 quid on each of them.

They say you'll go skint backing odds on shots but if you can back them at odds against that would be a different ball game

Unfortunately the 1st race time is about midnight my time so I can't see me sitting up until 8am to find out.

However if there's evening races on in the uk then I'll be looking in at the earlier races to see if I can spot the odd one and grab some value.
 
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icebreaker said:
More accurate how?
The Tote pools are a far more accurate reflection of where and what the American money is going on than the small layers on Betfair. Last night's Totepool via simulcasting nationwide will probably be shown to have been above $10 million on the race whereas the Betfair traded amount at the Off was £180,000. Betfair might be a more accurate of a horse's chance of winning, but that is a debate for another day. As it stands, the Tote is the better indicator of the weight-of-money for any particular horse in American racing.
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The pools will obviously be completely biased towards the favourite. Are you seriously telling me that the accurate price for California Chrome was 3/5? Was there not an Australian syndicate making millions betting into the Hong Kong Tote where there numbers were different to the Tote. What percentage does the Totepool bet too? You can't take these prices literally.
 
SlimChance said:
Are you seriously telling me that the accurate price for California Chrome was 3/5?
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I'm not saying any such thing !
(Fact I called 4/5 a silly price some posts previously).
But what I am telling you is that the Tote (American) is a more accurate reflection of the way the U.S. public is betting a particular horse than Betfair is. The USA Morning Line prices are a construct of the track's linesmaker as to how he forecasts the volume of money for each horse in a race; the Totepool prices are the strongest indicator of how that money is being wagered in real-time. Watch the markets long enough and one will find that Betfair odds follows those of Tote upwards or downwards. (There is an exploit there if you have the required fast software and use, say, Twinspires against Betfair. Or use a rapid updating Toteboard to trade the prices on Betfair alone as they adjust to follow the Tote). So in a way, Tote is the marketmaker as far as U.S. racing goes -- not Betfair.

Again, Betfair might overall prove to be an better indicator of a horse's chance, but the Tote is the more accurate reflection of the volume-of-money on each horse.
 
But volume of money is not directly correlated with the horses chance of winning. I understand that Betfair is lead by the Tote but there are several high profile examples of horses being overbet in these pools and horses will decent chances being friendless on the Tote. If you're using the Tote to anticipate moves with Betfair and fixed odds bookmakers I'm sure you can scalp a few quid but it's rudiculous to suggest that the Tote price at the off is a better indicator of the horses chances than Betfair.
 
SlimChance said:
it's rudiculous to suggest that the Tote price at the off is a better indicator of the horses chances than Betfair.
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Seriously dude, do you read posts or just speed-scan them?
I haven't seen anyone on here suggesting the above quoted. And I certainly wouldn't say it.
In truth I've been saying that Betfair probably paints a better picture of a horse's chance in percentage terms than any other market.
But the fact is that Totepool is a more accurate reflection of where the American money is going. That's all.

Perhaps we're arguing at cross-purposes here; all of this was spurred by your original post, i.e. "Betfair is far more accurate to the on price screens which are based on the US tote pool" ................. which is a bit unclear. You were asked (twice) to clarify this, but failed to do so -- which is how I think the confusion arose.
 
jockey gave CC a poor ride and more than likely would of had enough just about to hold off the challengers, your not going to beat the other horses going 4 wide on the last two turns. CC broke well and the jockey made a crucial mistake by not holding its position.
 
I mean that the prices on screen are guide prices. As you well know the dividend is not set until the race is off so therefore it's highly likely there will always be discrepancies between Betfair and the prices on At The Races. Betfair being 7/4 when it's 4/5 on At The Races does not necessarily mean its value.
 
Poor horse - an injury , a terrible bad loser of an owner and a horribly whip happy jockey thrown in to the mix.
 
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