EC21
Conditional
I read much stuff on here about this over the years. My good pal DO often talks about non triers etc. Something as a numbers man I never studied much.
As said, I never normally bothered about the non trier stuff with just being a numbers man tbh. But going in to body language, which we can all see. One thing I have noticed though is that if I was a Jockey on a horse that wasn't trying, I wouldn't look over my shoulder in the stalls, to see when that last straggler was ready to enter the stalls, when horses were loading, I would never look whilst in the stalls and then I would hope I was last out, I would just look straight forward and hope for a slow start. Why would you bother looking over your shoulder if your horse was not meant to win? Serious question here, especially to those involved in horse racing is this. In a 10 horse race how many horses are trying???? All ten????, sarcastic question clearly. This is flat racing, not jumps by the way.
I have been on here many years and have read much, and contributed much, about analysis of horse races, but those involved in racing seem real shy about talking about the nuts and bolts about horse racing and how it is actually run. Here is one theory I have. 20% of horse trainers have a real edge in what they know about training horses to win, the other 80% are just flying kites around in the wind throwing 6 darts at a board a week hoping for win every few days/weeks. When they get one winner, they say that was always the plan, basically bullshit stuff. It is clear many trainers have this game nailed whilst playing amongst the 80% who just make up the numbers. I have a list of trainers who win when the money is down way above the average. Some trainers, many in the lower ranks, just know when their horse will pull that extra bit out in the last furlong. Not talking about group races here, just meat and potato stuff.
A visual observation I have made in flat races over short distances with a bend, some jockeys, if trying, if that is such a thing, are desperate to get inside quick or out of the stalls quickly, others don't seem to give a toss, are those non triers that don't give a toss if they run wide or get slow out? There are "tells" to those who don't care. Have watched it many times.
What I am trying to do here is put "normal behaviour" versus "not normal behaviour" as in trying or not trying, in regard to wanting to win or being told not to, as a visual aid to us punters. A trier will be looking over his shoulder in the stalls, so he knows when the last horse is loaded, someone not "trying" won't look at all, because they don't care when that last horse loads. Only "trier" riders care when that last horse loads. I watched this a lot, some jockeys are desperately looking over their shoulder, others not so bothered. If I wanted to win a race, I would be looking.
Just trying to put human behaviour that a trier would be doing over what sometimes is just the start to a race, but there are "tells" at the start of a race about whether a jockey cares about winning or not.
Alternatively, every jockey is trying to win every race he runs in? Or are there real obvious tells about not too bothered today? Not calling any jockey here, just want to know if there are "tells" right from that start point in a race that say, "I ain't bothered today, been told not to". I think there are "tells" when you look closely in real time.
If someone told me not to win as a jockey in a race, I would never look over my shoulder to see the last one in, I would want to get caught by surprise, seems a nice excuse.
Do trainers tell jockeys not to win??? Seems a naive question, but I never see anyone involved in racing ever admit that this is an instruction given to a jockey.
I think there are "tells" in flat racing as outlined above, that tell me some jockeys know when it is not the day to be too bothered.
Just to add, notice the jockey that is wide but never "looks" inside to get in, another sign of the non trier??
As said, I never normally bothered about the non trier stuff with just being a numbers man tbh. But going in to body language, which we can all see. One thing I have noticed though is that if I was a Jockey on a horse that wasn't trying, I wouldn't look over my shoulder in the stalls, to see when that last straggler was ready to enter the stalls, when horses were loading, I would never look whilst in the stalls and then I would hope I was last out, I would just look straight forward and hope for a slow start. Why would you bother looking over your shoulder if your horse was not meant to win? Serious question here, especially to those involved in horse racing is this. In a 10 horse race how many horses are trying???? All ten????, sarcastic question clearly. This is flat racing, not jumps by the way.
I have been on here many years and have read much, and contributed much, about analysis of horse races, but those involved in racing seem real shy about talking about the nuts and bolts about horse racing and how it is actually run. Here is one theory I have. 20% of horse trainers have a real edge in what they know about training horses to win, the other 80% are just flying kites around in the wind throwing 6 darts at a board a week hoping for win every few days/weeks. When they get one winner, they say that was always the plan, basically bullshit stuff. It is clear many trainers have this game nailed whilst playing amongst the 80% who just make up the numbers. I have a list of trainers who win when the money is down way above the average. Some trainers, many in the lower ranks, just know when their horse will pull that extra bit out in the last furlong. Not talking about group races here, just meat and potato stuff.
A visual observation I have made in flat races over short distances with a bend, some jockeys, if trying, if that is such a thing, are desperate to get inside quick or out of the stalls quickly, others don't seem to give a toss, are those non triers that don't give a toss if they run wide or get slow out? There are "tells" to those who don't care. Have watched it many times.
What I am trying to do here is put "normal behaviour" versus "not normal behaviour" as in trying or not trying, in regard to wanting to win or being told not to, as a visual aid to us punters. A trier will be looking over his shoulder in the stalls, so he knows when the last horse is loaded, someone not "trying" won't look at all, because they don't care when that last horse loads. Only "trier" riders care when that last horse loads. I watched this a lot, some jockeys are desperately looking over their shoulder, others not so bothered. If I wanted to win a race, I would be looking.
Just trying to put human behaviour that a trier would be doing over what sometimes is just the start to a race, but there are "tells" at the start of a race about whether a jockey cares about winning or not.
Alternatively, every jockey is trying to win every race he runs in? Or are there real obvious tells about not too bothered today? Not calling any jockey here, just want to know if there are "tells" right from that start point in a race that say, "I ain't bothered today, been told not to". I think there are "tells" when you look closely in real time.
If someone told me not to win as a jockey in a race, I would never look over my shoulder to see the last one in, I would want to get caught by surprise, seems a nice excuse.
Do trainers tell jockeys not to win??? Seems a naive question, but I never see anyone involved in racing ever admit that this is an instruction given to a jockey.
I think there are "tells" in flat racing as outlined above, that tell me some jockeys know when it is not the day to be too bothered.
Just to add, notice the jockey that is wide but never "looks" inside to get in, another sign of the non trier??
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