chaumi
Well-known member
Potential bets today at Carlisle, Taunton, Fairyhouse, Wolves. All noted on first scans late last night.
In the main, actual bets (if any) depend on prices nearer the off and a deeper analysis of other runners. Note: 'deeper analysis' in Chaumi World means 2-3 mins, maybe 4!
Several of these will be watchers. Several may be scrubbed/postponed for consideration another day. A few not noted yet might pop up as backable.
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I'm on the road in a few hours and will be travelling in general over the next few days leading up to the annual Chaumi visit to Newbury. There may well only be limited opportunities to populate the blog this week, so it may go quiet for a bit.
+ Thoughts are solidifying around the optimal way of continuing betting activities, which was partly the point of starting the blog. I didn't anticipate it would be this quick to come to firm conclusions around what I'm doing and how I'm doing it. But writing it all down has definitely cemented some stuff I already 'knew', and thrown up one or two different perspectives. More on that another day.
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1.30 Carlisle Jonzac/Takeyoutotheisland Takeyou definitely has something, but hasn't shown it so far. Suspect Kinneston Nick has gone for this race in the hope the good ground has an impact, but 2 miles is likely not far enough. However, the stiff Carlisle track could play a part in making it feel further for a fair few of these. All that said, there look to be only 4 or 5 that you'd say could definitely go well, which might make the 4 places market worth a look. It's possible there might be double figures available, and I may well take the chance if that's the case. Whatever happens here doesn't matter - if it comes off, then OK. if it goes to hell. he'll give it back in a handicap.
Jonzac An ex Willie Mullins horse for Patrick Morris, cost €25k. By Masked Marvel, every chance there is something in the tank. Highly unlikely on paper to show it today, however, one to watch.
2.35 Carl Bollin Skittle A Donald Whillans youngster, also unlikely to show much today, but need to watch for future. Should go off well in the hundreds BF. The dam Bollin Fiona won a few races, but not until into handicaps. It's almost certain to be the same for Skittle. And there look to be at least 4 or 5 who should finish in front of her today, even if she is further forward than seems likely.
4.04 C Whispering Dancer A Class 5 3 mile chase and Sue Corbett's Whispering Dancer is down at the foot on 10-2. Ran OK in some 3 mile points in early career, now could be the right time to show more and wouldn't have to be much more than reasonable class 4 level to handle a lot of these.
4.34 Marvel Magic A Masked Marvel (obviously). Very likely to find this too sharp and have doubts about Lucinda's form, one to watch and plenty of these look OK.
2.45 Taunton Shanagolden Girl Several of the opposition look potential winners of this, but I'd put Shanagolden at around 12-1, and she's currently 40 or 50. Taken a bit of near 80 on Betfair. Strong possibility she will need handicaps, but could show improvement here. Maybe it'll need one or two of the others to falter.
3.30 Fairyhouse Miss Mini Bee One of two Patrick Foley runners, some interpretations suggest Mini might be the preferred one. An 'anything could win it' race on paper, but it's possible the heavy ground could pull this Soldier Of Fortune into the frame.
7.30 Wolves Spirit Lead Me Think Spirit is over-priced for this at 28s currently. Fav looks strong. Will probably want 40 at least to take a chance on Spirit, but there are some indicators he might be up to it.
In the main, actual bets (if any) depend on prices nearer the off and a deeper analysis of other runners. Note: 'deeper analysis' in Chaumi World means 2-3 mins, maybe 4!
Several of these will be watchers. Several may be scrubbed/postponed for consideration another day. A few not noted yet might pop up as backable.
**********************
I'm on the road in a few hours and will be travelling in general over the next few days leading up to the annual Chaumi visit to Newbury. There may well only be limited opportunities to populate the blog this week, so it may go quiet for a bit.
+ Thoughts are solidifying around the optimal way of continuing betting activities, which was partly the point of starting the blog. I didn't anticipate it would be this quick to come to firm conclusions around what I'm doing and how I'm doing it. But writing it all down has definitely cemented some stuff I already 'knew', and thrown up one or two different perspectives. More on that another day.
******************
1.30 Carlisle Jonzac/Takeyoutotheisland Takeyou definitely has something, but hasn't shown it so far. Suspect Kinneston Nick has gone for this race in the hope the good ground has an impact, but 2 miles is likely not far enough. However, the stiff Carlisle track could play a part in making it feel further for a fair few of these. All that said, there look to be only 4 or 5 that you'd say could definitely go well, which might make the 4 places market worth a look. It's possible there might be double figures available, and I may well take the chance if that's the case. Whatever happens here doesn't matter - if it comes off, then OK. if it goes to hell. he'll give it back in a handicap.
Jonzac An ex Willie Mullins horse for Patrick Morris, cost €25k. By Masked Marvel, every chance there is something in the tank. Highly unlikely on paper to show it today, however, one to watch.
2.35 Carl Bollin Skittle A Donald Whillans youngster, also unlikely to show much today, but need to watch for future. Should go off well in the hundreds BF. The dam Bollin Fiona won a few races, but not until into handicaps. It's almost certain to be the same for Skittle. And there look to be at least 4 or 5 who should finish in front of her today, even if she is further forward than seems likely.
4.04 C Whispering Dancer A Class 5 3 mile chase and Sue Corbett's Whispering Dancer is down at the foot on 10-2. Ran OK in some 3 mile points in early career, now could be the right time to show more and wouldn't have to be much more than reasonable class 4 level to handle a lot of these.
4.34 Marvel Magic A Masked Marvel (obviously). Very likely to find this too sharp and have doubts about Lucinda's form, one to watch and plenty of these look OK.
2.45 Taunton Shanagolden Girl Several of the opposition look potential winners of this, but I'd put Shanagolden at around 12-1, and she's currently 40 or 50. Taken a bit of near 80 on Betfair. Strong possibility she will need handicaps, but could show improvement here. Maybe it'll need one or two of the others to falter.
3.30 Fairyhouse Miss Mini Bee One of two Patrick Foley runners, some interpretations suggest Mini might be the preferred one. An 'anything could win it' race on paper, but it's possible the heavy ground could pull this Soldier Of Fortune into the frame.
7.30 Wolves Spirit Lead Me Think Spirit is over-priced for this at 28s currently. Fav looks strong. Will probably want 40 at least to take a chance on Spirit, but there are some indicators he might be up to it.
