Turkey: Military Coup?

Grasshopper

Grasshopper

Senior Jockey
Joined
Nov 14, 2006
Messages
16,050
Does anyone have any idea WTF is going on in Turkey?

Is this a potential coup by secularist elements in the military? It's certainly true that Erdogan has been moving ever-closer to establishing and Islamist-leaning dictatorship.

Reports are patchy at best, from what I can gather.
 
Not much has come up on the bbc news app yet, though I should think they have to be very careful what they put until such times as they know what's what. I think the last update was



An army group in Turkey says it has taken control of the country, with bridges closed in Istanbul and aircraft flying low over Ankara.
PM Binali Yildirim earlier denounced an "illegal action" by a military "group", stressing it was not a coup. He said that the government remained in charge.
Traffic has been stopped from crossing both the Bosphorus and Fatih Sultan Mehmet bridges in Istanbul.
There are reports of gunshots in the capital Ankara.
Gunfire was also heard outside Istanbul police HQ and tanks are said to be stationed outside Istanbul airport. All flights are cancelled.
CNN Turk reported that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was "safe" but did not elaborate.
A statement from the military group read out on NTV television said: "The power in the country has been seized in its entirety." Who represents the group remains uncertain.
A Turkish presidential source told Reuters that the statement was not authorised by the military command.
Mr Yildirim told NTV by telephone: "We are working on the possibility of an attempt. We will not allow this attempt.
"Those who are in this illegal act will pay the highest price," he added, saying it would not be correct to describe the move as a "coup".
He said: "There was an illegal act by a group within the military that was acting out of the chain of military command. Our people should know that we will not allow any activity that would harm democracy."
There are reports Turkey's top general has been taken hostage at the military HQ.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
Funnily enough, about 3 hours ago I was sketching out what conditions would be necessary to launch General Warbler's 'we've had enough of this' war, and one of the earliest signals I identified was a military coup in Turkey. I've clearly developed the power of inter-continental, auto-suggestion, thought transfer

Next few hours will be critical you feel, and Erdogan has been realigning the military by way of key personnel and redefining its role through legislation (whilst boosting the police). Can they do it? In the past they've intervened successfully in support of secularism, but most of what I've read since reckoned they're a diminished force and it would be much harder now. We'll see

I also note that the US finally released the 28 pages of the redacted 9/11 Commission report a few hours ago too.
 
Last edited:
Who might be the winners and losers General Warbler, what type of a Middle East would we be looking at if he is overthrown? i note Russia and America have supposed to been developing their piece talks over Syria recently?
 
Last edited:
Another time Marb, but there is a question of how much more we're going to take before we start lashing back, but before we do, we'll want to prepare the ground. Encouraging a more western facia in Turkey is an obvious step, as would be some protocols with Russia. I note also that America signed their first military co-operation protocol with India in April this year. I think the sands are shifting

I'm not sure that your suggestion of piece talks in Syria however isn't actually a more relevant typo regarding that particular theatre
 
Last edited:
One European Union source told Reuters that the military action "looks like a relatively well-orchestrated coup by a substantial body of the military, not just a few colonels".


Given that hat it's the eu that have stated that it's probably one bloke with a. Plastic sword
 
Do we know that it's in support of secularism? or is it Islamic? There seems to be suggestions that clerics are involved - which is rarely a good sign

Anything that calls itself a "peace council" kind of sets alarm bells ringing with me

When countries who would seemingly have skin in the game, but are as diametrically opposed to each other as Russia and Qatar are both condemning it, you sort of feel one of them isn't telling the truth

It could of course be Boris Johnson that's caused it already? For Gods sake, he's only been in post for 48 hours and he's probably said the wrong thing to the wrong person and set off a chain reaction. I think that's probably the most likely explanation! I mean, it's a bit of a coincidence isn't it
 
Last edited:
American media seems to be suggesting that they expect it to fail in the next 24-48 hours.

Sounds like a bit of Pokemon perhaps got out of control?

Lots of confusion though. I guess watch this space. This could be really seismic, or it could be a damp firework with all points in between possible, equally. So that's clear then!

So far as I can piece together, it probably is a few generals with grievances who seem to be hooked up with some American based cleric. It's not unusual in these situations for foot soldiers to get suckered into something they're unaware of. We've seen it happen before where they get given an order to seize somewhere and then don't really know what to do, or what they're participating in
 
Last edited:
Not really a time for levity but I did raise a wry smile reading this:

Some more from President Erdogan when he addressed thousands of flag-waving supporters outside Istanbul's Ataturk Airport earlier.

He said: "They have pointed the people's guns against the people. The president, whom 52 percent of the people brought to power, is in charge. This government, brought to power by the people, is in charge. They won't succeed as long as we stand against them by risking everything."
 
On top of the hundreds of soldiers, police and judiciary arrested since the failed coup, it seems Turkey have now suspended over 15,000 teachers. Notably, the threatened a strike against Erdogan's government a few months back.

This now has all the hallmarks of a totalitarian take-over. I'm not usually one for conspiracy theories, but given the amateurish way this coup played out, and given Erdogan's track-record in power-consolidation, I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised to hear that he had orchestrated the entire thing himself.

Turkey is in danger of back-sliding into an Islamic Republic. This is not a good thing.
 
I wondered about that too. I am also very adverse to conspiracy theories. Made a great deal of sense until you suggested it.
 
Erdogan has got form with false flag incidents before

The Turkish army was also known to be resisting his preference for direct intervention in Syria in support of various militia groups, albeit the action was predominantly against Assad and the Kurds. This will become a particularly volatile issue under President Trump who has expressed his desire to seek an autonomous Kurdish state (well at least for now he has anyway - heaven knows what position he'll adopt next week)

I know some commentators are saying that the stakes were too high for a false flag, but I don't necessarily buy it. You don't need to achieve conscious co-operation from the coup organisers. Basically you trick them into believing they have a lot more support than they have instead. You achieve their participation through deceit by embeding agent provocateurs to encourage known dissenters to stage a coup, rather than using your own people to carry it out. It will be interesting to see if in a few months time Erdogan mysteriously hands out a few pardons to some selected instigators?

In the meantime you can purge the military and apparatus of state enforcement of opponents and replace them with your own supporters.

Taking on the education system is another step mind you and suggests he's moving fast. I expect to discover that Saudi 'charitable' money finds its way into the education system pretty quickly. Why wouldn't it? They've bank-rolled madrassas right across Pakistan, as well as a host of other coutnries. Turkey would be a natural next point for their hegemon
 
I don't buy it at all... on reflection.

doesnt make sense in terms of the risk.

As has been stated before, Saudi and turkey are generally hostile and are two entirely different cultures. The idea this is engineered to simply enforce madrassas across a population with little tradition of extremism is absurd. Also the last thing any Turkish leader wants is to alienate the 25% Shia population
 
According to a 2013 Pew global opinion poll, Turks hold the most negative view of Saudi Arabia out of any surveyed Muslim country, with 26% expressing a favourable view and 53% expressing an unfavourable view.[SUP][2][/SUP]
 
I don't see that Saudi Arabia is in any way relevant. You can still run an Islamist government, without adopting a Saudi Arabian model.

As far as the conspiracy-theory goes, I suspect you're right, but I wouldn't put it past the fu*cker, which is half the point. However it transpired, he is using the coup as cover for a power-grab, and appears to have wholly-violated the rule-of-law whilst he has gone about it.

The cause is largely immaterial, when this is the effect.
 
Last edited:
It's not unusual to hollow out the military after a coup, the police, or the media, but within 3 days Erdogan has identified 21,000 teachers. Does that not strike you as strange? Does that not suggest there is something a bit different going on here?
 
I'd like to know how many of those teachers are not members of the AK Party, and how many members of the AK Party have been dismissed, during this purge. It could be a blatant attempt to criminalise anyone not four-square behind him.
 
I get that its an area he might want to look at in a year or so (I'd have thought the immediate priority for someone whose just survived a coup would be the universities)

Ultimately it's not like the teachers of Turkey ordered the army into revolt, and this is why the whole thing has someting of a pre-meditated appearance about it. The greater probability however would be that it was a policy/ strategy that was in the pipeline, which he's now brought forward. If he's consistent, then you'd expect the civil service to be subjected to similar within the week

Erdogan has made little secret of his desire to restore the prestige of the Ottoman empire and this has brought him into conflict with some states in the Gulf (notably Saudia Arabia as it happens) but its not as if this is an insurmountable barrier either. We see it in Europe, which let's be honest, has a more turbulent history of nation on nation warfare. The UK is allied with plenty of countries today that it previously governed (not least of which being the USA). There's always scope to work together in shared areas. Syria, Iran, and Kurdistan are areas where the Turks and Saudis are aligned. Egypt for instance isn't

Ultimately Turkey under Erdogan is encouraging Islam to play a wider role in public life, so long as this continues, the capacity for a federation increases so far as I can see, even if it ultimately uses Iran as the excuse for forming it
 
Grasshopper said:
Does anyone have any idea WTF is going on in Turkey?

Is this a potential coup by secularist elements in the military? It's certainly true that Erdogan has been moving ever-closer to establishing and Islamist-leaning dictatorship.

Reports are patchy at best, from what I can gather.
Click to expand...
spot on
 
Been through this before. A federation including the likes of Saudi and turkey is impossible to imagine. Far too much history. Far too much ethic and cultural difference. Also the idea that all strands of Sunni religion are on the same page is entirely wrong

the Turks will certainly not want Saudi and other Arab states telling them that the federation is expecting them to do this or that

doesnt that poll I posted mean anything? It's pretty clear that the Turks do not see themselves as in Synch with the towel head head choppers

the idea that he's going to throw away his powers into some superstate makes no sense at all
 
Last edited:
Warbler said:
I get that its an area he might want to look at in a year or so (I'd have thought the immediate priority for someone whose just survived a coup would be the universities)

Ultimately it's not like the teachers of Turkey ordered the army into revolt, and this is why the whole thing has someting of a pre-meditated appearance about it. The greater probability however would be that it was a policy/ strategy that was in the pipeline, which he's now brought forward. If he's consistent, then you'd expect the civil service to be subjected to similar within the week

Erdogan has made little secret of his desire to restore the prestige of the Ottoman empire and this has brought him into conflict with some states in the Gulf (notably Saudia Arabia as it happens) but its not as if this is an insurmountable barrier either. We see it in Europe, which let's be honest, has a more turbulent history of nation on nation warfare. The UK is allied with plenty of countries today that it previously governed (not least of which being the USA). There's always scope to work together in shared areas. Syria, Iran, and Kurdistan are areas where the Turks and Saudis are aligned. Egypt for instance isn't

Ultimately Turkey under Erdogan is encouraging Islam to play a wider role in public life, so long as this continues, the capacity for a federation increases so far as I can see, even if it ultimately uses Iran as the excuse for forming it
Click to expand...

Not sure if I can agree with this, Warbler.

Either you are looking to restore something like the Ottoman Empire - by definition, this would be a dominion under a single Ruler - or you are making tactical, regional, alliances. You can't be doing both at the same time, imo.

Erdogan's motives for pretty-much anything he does, are hard to figure out.

Whilst there has been a recent rapprochment with Russia, his decision to shoot one of their jets out of the sky, was - at best - hugely antogonistic. Now it seems the US might be 'at war' with Turkey, if they fail to extradite Fethulah Gulen. Whatever he is about, he seems to be fearless about making enemies, which can't be a good thing.

This might not be over yet.

The Army has always fiercely-protected Turkey's secular tradition, and I wouldn't rule-out the possibility of a further coup attempt, somewhere down the line. Expansionism (particularly into Syria), or increasing Islamisation of the country, could yet act as triggers for something more coherent than last weekend's attempt.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top