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Turkey: Military Coup?
- Thread starter Grasshopper
- Start date
doesnt that poll I posted mean anything?
No. It's not something I put much stock in to be honest. At any given time you could generate similar sentiments amongst European countries, or indeed 10 years ago you'd have seen similar disapproval ratings in key European countries towards the USA. George Bush frequently generated favourability ratings below 20%, and the country itself would only hold at between 35% and 40%, yet no one seriously suggested the fabric of common interests were about to crumble, or that no basis for co-operationm existed.
The other problem I have with Pew (and I'm not alone), is that their methodology doesn't survey depth. It's how we end up with deeply misleading findings that aren't really capturing the nuts and bolts. There is this much derided survey of theirs which is often wheeled out (and criticised equally) about British muslims. There are a number of 'causes' I might have sympathy for or disapprove of etc but I'm equally world's away from doing anything about them. Pew's reporting doesn't capture this though
Most people are politically apathetic, to make these syrveys meaningful they need to dig into the strength of feeling. If all you're doing is capturing a soft sentiment that won't convert into opposition or support, then an autocrat with a firm control on the levers of enforcement can over-ride them
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Either you are looking to restore something like the Ottoman Empire - by definition, this would be a dominion under a single Ruler - or you are making tactical, regional, alliances. You can't be doing both at the same time, imo.
Erdogan's motives for pretty-much anything he does, are hard to figure out.
Whilst there has been a recent rapprochment with Russia, his decision to shoot one of their jets out of the sky, was - at best - hugely antogonistic. Now it seems the US might be 'at war' with Turkey, if they fail to extradite Fethulah Gulen. Whatever he is about, he seems to be fearless about making enemies, which can't be a good thing.
This might not be over yet.
The Army has always fiercely-protected Turkey's secular tradition, and I wouldn't rule-out the possibility of a further coup attempt, somewhere down the line. Expansionism (particularly into Syria), or increasing Islamisation of the country, could yet act as triggers for something more coherent than last weekend's attempt.
I suspect he's verging towards being dangerously unstable, a personification of Nixon's 'mad man theory' (now being revisited by you know who incidentally)
I'm sure he would like to restore the Ottoman empire with him as Caliph, he won't get that though. He can pursue this as a personal objective, but can equally work within a looser federated structure, on a case by case basis. In this respect it wouldn't be a million miles removed from the EU. I think there is likely to be an accommodation, albeit an uneasy one. There is plenty of noise in the EU both in terms of historic influences and competing priorities. The member states are also riddled with no small amount of baggage and mutual distrust, but it still sort bumbles on
I'm far from certain that the Turkish military will be able to do much soon. It might be too late already. Erdogan has built up a vanguard of support in key areas and is still consolidating this. He's also succeeded in getting the military to accept a different role for itself (whilst strengthening the police). Structurally it'll start to resemble Saddam's Iraq. Even if there is dissent within it, the dominant regiments will be loyal. A second coup will almost certainly trigger a civil war, and then I'd agree, we have a major, major issue
Polls only matter when they give right results then.
I have neither the time, nor inclination to walk you through it Clive, but if you understood the basics of policy analysis and how its formed, rolled out, and objected (especially foreign policy) you'd realise your poll (assuming it exists as your link just goes to a wikipedia page) might as well be written on toilet paper for all the practical use it is, and certainly as you've presented it on a split of 53/26 (and I assume 21% don't knows/ don't cares, which is where your analysis should begin). You'd be doing yourself a favour if you stopped throwing these red-herrings in though, and start appreciate the fine line between hard facts and opinion polls (they do have uses in informing views and how things will pan out certainly, but I don't believe this is one of them with so many gaps missing)
You can only get the correct answer if you're asking the right question(s). You aren't asking the right question(s). Policy is routinely passed into legislation against less promising backdrops than this. It happens hundreds of times every year across all sorts of differtent countries, and there are good reasons why. You not only need to drill much deeper, but also look at the peripherary, (which we don't appear to have any detail for with this simplistic reporting).
If Erdogan decides in the future that he wishes to pursue a foreign policy that seeks to align more closely with Saudi Arabia and other Sunni states, then this strawman poll from Pew will not deter him, and it would be incredibly dangerous to rely on it to do otherwise
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Now it's an alignment not a federation
You don't get the culture at all do you. Everything is in military terms . Turks do not want to be pushed around in a arabit dominated federation
That's that . It barely needs explaining why.
Stupid comment about the poll. It merely illustrates what most observers would expect
You don't get the culture at all do you. Everything is in military terms . Turks do not want to be pushed around in a arabit dominated federation
That's that . It barely needs explaining why.
Stupid comment about the poll. It merely illustrates what most observers would expect