TV Tonight - Gambling Theme

BrianH

BrianH

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Some of you will remember me talking on here about a book on the subject of students at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who got away with their blackjack card counting system in Las Vegas and elsewhere for long enough to make plenty of money. Tonight's Horizon - entitled Making Millions The Easy Way at 9.00 pm on BBC2 covers the same subject.

Also, there will be a piece on Channel 4 News this evening, probably one side or other of the 7.30 headlines, which will discuss the government's plans to bring forward the deregulation of gambling. It will include a live discussion. I tend to agree with Vicky Coren, who will say that the whole thing has been over-hyped, both by supporters and opponents.
 
I was actually coming on here tonight , having watched the programme to see if I could start a thread which would enlist accomplices :lol: I know nothing about cards so I'll defer to Brian's wisdom . It seemed like a great wheeze . Mayby there are more pitfalls that were'nt advertised by the programme makers but it did make me think about the possibilities . Do you think that that the blackjack loopholes are totally sewn up Brian ?
 
yes watched the programme!! was very interesting but seen part of the gaming act laws&lottery on Parliament programme today...DTV but mainly the ammendments to it..........................
 
According to the programme there is no law against card counting . I would appreciate any private views on the subject :P
 
Watched the programme last night. It was very interesting but I was surprised it excluded the group that took in minute cameras so that they could see what cards were being dealt out of the shoe.

I've played Blackjack all around the UK, on a cruise ship, and of course in numerous Las Vegas casinos. I am not a card counter but play "Basic Strategy" which is a system based upon the dealer's face up card. I also play a staking plan as well.

Basic Strategy if played correctly reduces the house advantage substantially.

I do not believe given the level of security and the quality of the pit staff that you would get away with card counting in Vegas at all nowadays. They watch winners very very carefully nowadays. It is very unlikely you would last long if you were suspected in other countries as well.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the UK when laws are relaxed on casino gambling. The change will mean that gamblers can walk in off the street, as you can in Vegas and elsewhere, rather than having to wait 24hrs after registering.
 
There are files on all known card counters in all the casinos. It's extremely unlikely that a new face would get away with it for long - they are detected by our old Betfair friend "betting patterns". Although it is not illegal to count cards, the "penalties" in Las Vegas and Atlantic City are uncomfortable. Not as uncomfortable as they were when the mob ran those places though...
 
I don't play Blackjack, but it appears to me that the only way you can play well, is by counting cards. I can understand the casino's unwillingness to play against people who "play well" and would respect their right to stop playing against them (just as people who don't play well have the right not to go in to the casino). The impression I got from the program is that "playing well" is considered cheating by the casino's and leads to an approach slightly more exacting than cheery bye we'd rather not play with you any more, have a drink on the house.

In my naivety, I would have expected the Monte Carlo Casino at least to have a bit more class than the mob handed approach they delt out to the players.
 
If you think that the way they were dealt with lacked class, you should see how the casinos used to treat card counters in the days when all the names of "management" ended in a vowel!

Card counting is not the only way in which you can play well - as bernardo says playing basic strategy seriously reduces the house edge - but it's the only way in which the percentage can be switched from being in favour of the house to being in favour of the punter.

Anyway, it's all academic now as Las Vegas casinos all use shoes that shuffle the cards after each deal and I understand from a blackjack player that these have also been installed in Monte Carlo. They'll soon be universal.
 
I will put it another way.

How would you like to have 5/4 in your favour on an EVEN chances bet?
 
If the cards are constantly being shuffled, what's to stop a dodgy casino from stacking the deck with lower cards? Who'd know, nobody's counting.
 
Brian,

From the book. (a piece of paper and a pencil may be needed)

THE BASIC SYSTEM

The following mathematical details form the basic pattern of this system.The system is played in sequences and after the completion of a sequence the player commences a further sequence,using the very same method,until the desired amount of winnings by the individual punter are achieved.With indoor entertainments the system is played only on games of EVEN chance.The application of the system to Roulette is the first explained.

EXAMPLE 1

Three ones are placed on the left-hand side of the page,a WON and LOST column on the right.

For ease of memory the method is to be known as three little wickets.

The basic function is to complete the sequence.

The first bet is the sum of the 1st and 3rd wickets (in this case 2) Black wins and so the amount won (2) is placed in the WON column.

The top and bottom wickets are now deleted,leaving you with one little wicket.

Your next bet will be 1 (the remaining wicket)

The second bet results in a loss and so the figure one is added to the llittle wicket column and 1 is placed in the LOSE column.

By adding the top and the bottom wickets there emerges a total of 2 little wickets,so 2 is next bet

The third spin results in a loss and therefore a two is entered in the LOSE column.

You should now have your little wicket column lokking like this:

1X
1
1X
1
2

By adding the top wicket and the bottom wicket you will see that your next bet is 3.Black comes up and this indicates a win and so 3 is placed in the win column.

Your little wicket column should now look like this.

1x
1x
1x
1
2x

It is now clear that for every WIN the top and bottom wickets are deleted and for every LOSS the figure is entered at the bottom of the little wicket column.

This means that your next bet is 1.Black wins and you have completed the sequence.

1x
1x
1x
1x
2x

The columns on the right hand side of your paper should indicate:

L
2W
1L
2L
3W
1W

Resulting in a three wicket profit for your good self.

Of course the above is the most simple form of this System.

By the way it works very well on Horse Racing,using the shortest priced favourite s and avoiding odds on shots and can be carried forward on the the next days racing.
 
This doesn't seem to include any mathematical logic to me. It looks a bit like a slightly more sophisticated derivative of the "doubling up until you win" system, which is really taking a sequence of long odds on bets against your bank.
 
It's a staking plan that I have come across before. It's not dissimilar to the "Labouchere" system, in which you have four numbers in your column, so instead of 1, 1, 1 you could have, say, 1, 2, 2, 3 or 1, 2, 3, 4, and you cross out and add as before. When the sequence is complete the profit you make is always equal to the sum of the numbers on your list.

So, with 1, 2, 2, 3 and a sequence of WLWW:

Stake 4 - wins so delete 1 and 3
Stake 4 - loses so add 4 to end of list
Stake 6 - wins so delete 2 and 4
Stake 2 - wins so delete 2.
The sequence is complete, after tghree wins and one loss, with a profit of eight units, a low-point of 0 and a maximum bet of 6.

With 1, 2, 2, 3 and a sequence of WLWLLLLLLWLWWWW
The sequence includes seven winners and nine losers and shows a profit of eight units after a low-point of -36 and a maximum bet of 18.

The attraction of such staking plans is that they go with the grain of the probabilities of the game. You expect to have a relatively small loss each session but maintain an outside chance of a substatial win. That is the only real attitude with which anyone should play roulette anyway!

A disadvantage is that, as with all staking plans, it encourages playing for long periods - which is in the house's favour.

And, of course, despite your offer of 5/4 an even money chance, each spin of the wheel is going to give you even money on a bet that should pay in excess of 21/20 and, in the USA, in excess of 6/5.

Even with the stand-off on the even money chances when zero appears in European casinos, the house still has a 1.35% advantage against the puinter betting on any or all of those propositions.
 
melendez,
What can i say.

THE BASIC SYSTEM

The following mathematical details form the basic pattern of this system.The system is played in sequences and after the completion of a sequence the player commences a further sequence,using the very same method,until the desired amount of winnings by the individual punter are achieved.With indoor entertainments the system is played only on games of EVEN chance.The application of the system to Roulette is the first explained.


The premise that the system has anything to do with odds on shots is wrong.

Just to indicate that there is no rancour in my reply had the opposite been the case i would have substituted wrong with the word right.
 
Derek,

The system is set up that...

Firstly you bet 2
If that loses then 3 the next time
If that loses then 4
If that loses then 5
etc

What you are actually doing is betting that you will complete the sequence before your bank runs out. In reality, since you start with the stated tactic of following the sequence to the bitter end, your stake is your entire bank, regardless of how much is on the table at any given time, so you are betting that stake at huge odds on (depending how big the bank is) that you will complete the sequence before the bank runs out. So while every individual event may have nothing to do with odds-on betting - the culmination of the system event (i.e completing the system or going bust) is.

Where you have a game of pure chance like roulette, all events are entirely independent - the fact that black has come up five times makes it no less likely to come up a sixth time. Regardless of any staking plan, your expected return is always the same - If you are getting evens on an evens chance the expected return is always the stake you put on. If you are betting 1/1 on a 20/21 chance then your expected return is 5% or so less than the cumulative amount staked throughout the course of whatever system you are following.

Apologies if you take this, or took the other posting as a personal critisism, it is a comment on the esteemed Mr(Dr?) Thornton's system.
 
melendez,
sorry,i did'nt know that you already got the book.

One of the main threads running through the book is that the player should leave once he has completed a sequence. (it is not est in stone though.

Notwithstanding that you may enter the game just as a run of 100 blacks is about to start. It is surely possible to get on sequence up and then leave.

Even better is that your friend could be playing the opposite to yourself.

Pages 28 and 29 refer.

Should the player encounter a losing run,he could split the sequence into two parts,in effect running two sequences at once.

As you know there are on line Casinos (not virtual ones) that allow access to thier databases.

As far as my remark at the end of my previous post, i am a bit touchy after the various responses to my posts on this site.

I did not mean to offend you and i apologise if i did.
 
Melendez,
OK.

Two players.

It is possible that sod's law takes a hand and you pick the wrong colour.

We now introduce a second player (the wife)

Husband plays Black,Wife plays red.

Sequence of play.

RRBRBRBRRRBRRRRBRBBRB

This illustrates that black gained only one sequence whereas red gained 5 sequences with the sixth sequence to be continued.

In 1hr and 50 minutes of play a total of 108 was achieved (18 sequences of 6 each)as shown on the conventional casino cards.

I must add that 3 is the profit figure in any single (one player sequence)

I agree that the wheel can run against one of the players,but the other player must benefit whan this occurs.
 
Originally posted by Derek.Burgess@Oct 15 2004, 03:29 PM
One of the main threads running through the book is that the player should leave once he has completed a sequence.
Click to expand...
Derek

I think you are missing the point that Melendez and Brian are making.

The fatal flaw in the system is that, every now and then, the sequence is not completed - and you have done your conkers!

It won't happen very often, but it will happen.

Getting the wife to punt the other colour at the same time wouldn't work, because while she is chpping away and making 1 or 2 units every few spins, you have to chase your losses, by betting 8,9,10,...,1,000,000 or more units a spin to complete your sequence.
 
As staking systems go, "cancellation" systems such as those described above are better than any form of Martingale, but what they can't do is overcome the house 1.35% (on even money chances at European tables - the most favourable).
 
RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

Husband has lost the house, the car, the kids and the dog. Wife has the bus fare to get to a b&b for the night (without the husband).

The point I am making is not that it won't prove a successful plan in the short or medium term. It is that the real odds are hidden.

If you go with the "doubling up" system (which is more basic than Thornton's system I accept, but I believe illustrates the point)

You walk into the casino with £63 with the full and honourable intention of doubling up on red until you win and then walk out. Odds paid are 1/1 real odds are 21/20.

You put your first pound on Red. It wins. Have you pulled off an 1/1 money win. I would suggest not. What I would say is that you have just successfully backed a 1/63 shot whose real odds are about 1/54. Real 1/54 chances don't loose very often, so most of the time you will take your £1 out of the casino and buy a lollipop, until that dreaded day comes ...
 
....that's why I tend to use my faithful "always back number 6" system.

It doesn't show a profit - but at least it doesn't require a load of fannying about!
 
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