davewatts50
Amateur Rider
Here are my bets for the UK's all-weather races today. Initial selections are from the Kempton meeting. There may be more to follow later.
Note, the point of writing up these selections is always to illustrate which horses are carrying my personal bets. And those bets are always derived/determined from the processes outlined in the book: UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on
7:00 NEWCASTLE - Handicap (0-55) (6) 4yo+ 1M 5Yds 6 run.
The short odds on favourite is Moyowasi. He comes here fresh off a recent Kempton win 4 days ago and he should handle the surface and the uphill finish.
He’s an Improving 4 year old gelding and a distance and class winner. His highest winning mark is 55 and is off 60 today. His Handicap rating includes a 5lbs penalty for last time out.
He’s a hold up horse that really needs proper pace to chase. He’s got a very talent jockey on board which helps his case especially when teamed up with the trainer Ian Williams. They have a 21% win strike rate at this course in the past two years.
So there are a number of positive points but not enough in my opinion to be odds on.
Those that know me will know that I never back odds on.
I’m always keen to try an exploit value when I see what I believe is a weak favourite. I can’t see why the bookmakers have him as an odds on shot.
He’s unproven at the Newcastle track a track that many find difficult. He also needs a strong pace to chase. In this race today there is only one horse who likes to front run and that is Sold Out.
Therefore I’m going to take him on with two selections. The first selection is :
DEQUINTO is an In Form 7 year old gelding who’s a course and distance winner. He last
won 24 days ago and had 1 race since. LTO
was 15 days ago at Newcastle in a Class 6 over 8 furlongs, finishing 4th from nine and beaten by 3.00 lengths.
Tony Carroll and Myla Coppins (7lbs) team up again and their stats are quite impressive 4 wins from 9 runs in the past 2 years at the course.
He has quite a few positives stacked in his favour: He’s a proven C&D performer with his ideal conditions. He’s in peak condition and race fit. He generally races as a hold up and rallies late.
He finished 4th beaten 3L at Newcastle on 19/2/26 with an Even early pace. Looking at my race strength model that race scored an 64.9 and was classified as Strong. A repeat of that should see him being competitive .
SOLD OUT. Is an Improving 4 year old gelding who’s a course & distance winner. He last won 19 days ago and had 1 race since. LTO ran 13 days ago at Lingfield in a Class 6 over 8 furlongs, finishing 4th beaten by 3.50 lengths.
Sold Out is returning to a track and trip where he's won, and the yard is in really good form with 3 winners from 6 runners in the past 14 days. Stevie Donohoe takes the ride again and he’s 1 from 1 on the gelding.
He’s the only genuine front runner in the race which could work in his favour as he can dictate the pace. My only really reservation is his FSP% stats show that he fades towards the end of a race.
He finished 4th beaten 3.5 at Lingfield on 21/2/26 with an Even to Fast early pace. Looking at my race strength model that race scored a 73 and was classified as Very Strong. A repeat of that should see him win.
SOLD OUT Win bet @ 7
DEQUINTO Win bet @ 7.5
MARKET HOUSE looks the standout pick here. He's a dual winner at Newcastle, he’s in peak form after a recent Wolverhampton second, ideal trip and surface and dropping back into a class 5 race.
He finished 2nd to Pride Of Donegal on 27/2/26 at Wolverhampton. Looking at my race strength model that race scored a 79 and was classified as Very Strong. A repeat of that should see him win.
The price is much shorter than I wanted.
MARKET HOUSE Win bet @ 2.85
Note, the point of writing up these selections is always to illustrate which horses are carrying my personal bets. And those bets are always derived/determined from the processes outlined in the book: UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on
7:00 NEWCASTLE - Handicap (0-55) (6) 4yo+ 1M 5Yds 6 run.
The short odds on favourite is Moyowasi. He comes here fresh off a recent Kempton win 4 days ago and he should handle the surface and the uphill finish.
He’s an Improving 4 year old gelding and a distance and class winner. His highest winning mark is 55 and is off 60 today. His Handicap rating includes a 5lbs penalty for last time out.
He’s a hold up horse that really needs proper pace to chase. He’s got a very talent jockey on board which helps his case especially when teamed up with the trainer Ian Williams. They have a 21% win strike rate at this course in the past two years.
So there are a number of positive points but not enough in my opinion to be odds on.
Those that know me will know that I never back odds on.
I’m always keen to try an exploit value when I see what I believe is a weak favourite. I can’t see why the bookmakers have him as an odds on shot.
He’s unproven at the Newcastle track a track that many find difficult. He also needs a strong pace to chase. In this race today there is only one horse who likes to front run and that is Sold Out.
Therefore I’m going to take him on with two selections. The first selection is :
DEQUINTO is an In Form 7 year old gelding who’s a course and distance winner. He last
won 24 days ago and had 1 race since. LTO
was 15 days ago at Newcastle in a Class 6 over 8 furlongs, finishing 4th from nine and beaten by 3.00 lengths.
Tony Carroll and Myla Coppins (7lbs) team up again and their stats are quite impressive 4 wins from 9 runs in the past 2 years at the course.
He has quite a few positives stacked in his favour: He’s a proven C&D performer with his ideal conditions. He’s in peak condition and race fit. He generally races as a hold up and rallies late.
He finished 4th beaten 3L at Newcastle on 19/2/26 with an Even early pace. Looking at my race strength model that race scored an 64.9 and was classified as Strong. A repeat of that should see him being competitive .
SOLD OUT. Is an Improving 4 year old gelding who’s a course & distance winner. He last won 19 days ago and had 1 race since. LTO ran 13 days ago at Lingfield in a Class 6 over 8 furlongs, finishing 4th beaten by 3.50 lengths.
Sold Out is returning to a track and trip where he's won, and the yard is in really good form with 3 winners from 6 runners in the past 14 days. Stevie Donohoe takes the ride again and he’s 1 from 1 on the gelding.
He’s the only genuine front runner in the race which could work in his favour as he can dictate the pace. My only really reservation is his FSP% stats show that he fades towards the end of a race.
He finished 4th beaten 3.5 at Lingfield on 21/2/26 with an Even to Fast early pace. Looking at my race strength model that race scored a 73 and was classified as Very Strong. A repeat of that should see him win.
SOLD OUT Win bet @ 7
DEQUINTO Win bet @ 7.5
Newcastle 4:26 Handicap (0-75) (5) 4yo+
MARKET HOUSE looks the standout pick here. He's a dual winner at Newcastle, he’s in peak form after a recent Wolverhampton second, ideal trip and surface and dropping back into a class 5 race.
He finished 2nd to Pride Of Donegal on 27/2/26 at Wolverhampton. Looking at my race strength model that race scored a 79 and was classified as Very Strong. A repeat of that should see him win.
The price is much shorter than I wanted.
MARKET HOUSE Win bet @ 2.85
