UK AW Track Bets Today 12/03/2026 - Betting Tips & Information, Race & Runner Analysis

[davewatts50]

Here are my bets for the UK's all-weather races today. Initial selections are from the Newcastle meeting. There may be more to follow later.

Note, the point of writing up these selections is always to illustrate which horses are carrying my personal bets. And those bets are always derived/determined from the processes outlined in the book: UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on

Yesterday’s blog results were disappointing, but that occasionally happens. It’s a case of following the process and learning and refining along the way.

I’ve had a look at the 18:45 at Newcastle, and I think Irish Nectar is the standout play to get the job done tonight. When you dig into the RaceIQ metrics from his recent reappearance at Kempton, you start to see why he’s a massive threat back on a galloping track.

Here is why I’m siding with him:
The "big key” here is his LTO metric (104.1% FSP) from that 2nd place at Kempton 22 days ago. Posting a finishing speed percentage that high suggests he was finishing like a train in a fast run race which suggests he has a massive "hidden" engine.

Physically, he’s an improver. His Kempton data suggests he’s physically matured and now has an kingoperating in the 7.42m – 7.48m bracket. On the stiff Newcastle finish, that extra reach allows him to cover more ground than the "busy" sprinters when the fatigue kicks in.


The Speed Map & Race Setup
He’s drawn in the middle, which is fine for a horse with his closing speed. The key is the early burn: Almarada Prince (Stall 2) is a front-runner who is likely to blast off.

If Irish Nectar can just sit in the slipstream of that early pace, his king stride potential means he can "glide" past them on the hill. He doesn’t need to do the hard work early; he just needs the gaps to open at the two-furlong pole to use that superior extension.


Previous Course Form
He’s no stranger to the North East. He ran a solid race here back in November on his debut for the yard, but he looks like a much more "finished" article now. The fact he went so close at Kempton, a track that shouldn't have suited his long-reaching style as much as this straight mile tells me he is absolutely primed for a big 2026.


The Market & Value
He’s currently hovering around 4/1 to 9/2. In a competitive Class 4, that’s a fair price for a horse that the metrics say is a Class 3 talent in waiting.

Beale Street (7/1) and Raatea (6/1) are taking a lot of the "course specialist" money, which is giving us a bit of extra juice on the horse with the higher physical ceiling.


The Main Dangers
Beale Street (Stall 1): The "Course Master." He’s a three-time C&D winner and was only beaten a head here 16 days ago.


Raatea (Stall 9): The class veteran. Even at age 9, he showed he still has it with back-to-back Newcastle places this year.


Almarada Prince (Stall 2): The "Dark Horse." Making a yard debut for Paul Midgley. If he’s fit after 155 days off, his high-frequency turnover could make him hard to peg back if he gets a soft lead.


My Verdict:
Irish Nectar is the "Progressive " horse. His metrics show he’s finishing his races with way more power than his current rating suggests. In a race full of exposed course specialists, his ability to use his stride on the climb makes him the most likely winner for me.


My Bets
Irish Nectar EW @ 5.5 (BOG)

 

[davewatts50]

I’ve had a look at the 20:15 at Newcastle, and I think Call Glory is a massive each-way (EW) shout tonight. While the field is competitive, the RaceIQ metrics and his recent consistency make him a really solid "maths play" at the current prices.

Here is why he’s a priority for my tracker:

The Metric Logic & Turn-of-Foot
The real "secret" for Call Glory is his consistency in rhythm. While he doesn’t have the massive reach, his RaceIQ profile shows a very high-efficiency frequency (SPS). In his last few starts, he’s been hitting a Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of around 102-103%, proving he’s finishing his races with plenty of power.

He’s a "Metronome" horse. He doesn't gas himself out early, and on the stiff Newcastle finish, that ability to maintain his turnover while others are shortening their stride is exactly what you want for an EW bet.


The Draw & Tactical Setup
He’s drawn in Stall 1, which is often seen as a negative at Newcastle, but for a horse like Call Glory who likes to sit just off the pace, it could work perfectly.

The Speed Map shows Front Gunner (Stall 5) and Operation Gimcrack (Stall 10) likely to push forward early. This should create a decent "tow" into the race. Luke Morris is a master at navigating these Class 6 handicaps; expect him to keep Call Glory tucked in along the rail, saving every inch of ground before launching a challenge in the final furlong.

Previous Newcastle Form
He’s becoming a bit of a regular here! He’s placed on his last two starts over this course and distance (7f), including a very close 3rd just 16 days ago. He was only beaten a length that day in a race where the form is already starting to look solid.

He’s currently running off a mark of 57. He won twice at Southwell in January off 49, and while he’s up in the weights, He’s essentially at his peak right now.


The Market & Value
He’s currently sitting around 11/1 to 14/1. In a wide-open 12-runner handicap, getting double-digit odds on a horse that has finished in the top three in 4 of his last 5 starts is for me textbook EW value.

Pit Boss (3/1) and Front Gunner (5/1) are taking most of the market oxygen because they’ve been "eye-catchers," but Call Glory is arguably just as reliable and at three times the price.


The Main Dangers
Operation Gimcrack (Stall 10): The big threat. He won over C&D 16 days ago (beating Call Glory) and is only up 2lb for that. He’s clearly in a rich vein of form.

Front Gunner (Stall 5): A massive danger if he gets a "soft" lead. He’s been dropped in grade slightly and the Timeform ratings have him as a major player tonight.

Pit Boss (Stall 8): Very consistent and has been knocking on the door. He’ll be the one many people see as the "safe" play, but his price is getting a bit thin.


My Verdict:
Call Glory is a "Percentage Play." He’s fit, he loves the surface, and his metrics show he’s a highly efficient galloper who doesn't know how to run a bad race. In a field where half the runners have questions to answer, his reliability makes him a rock-solid EW candidate.


My Bets

Call Glory EW @ 13.0 (BOG)