UK AW Track Bets Today 13/02/2026 - Betting Tips & Information, Race & Runner Analysis

[davewatts50]

Here are my bets for the UK's all-weather races today. Initial selections are from the Wolverhampton tonight’s meeting. There may be more to follow later.

Note, the point of writing up these selections is always to illustrate which horses are carrying my personal bets. And those bets are always derived/determined from the processes outlined in the book: UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on the AW


5:15 WOLVERHAMPTON - Apprentice Handicap (0-65) (6) 4yo+ 1M 142y

KING OF SPEED is my EW selection in this race.

He’s an in form 7 year old gelding that is a proven course and distance winner. He last won 62 days ago over C&D and has had 1 race since finishing 3rd also over C&D. On that occasion he didn’t get a decent position and was forced to run wide. I don’t think he was given a hard time once the race was lost.

It was the race that he won on the 13/12/2026 that really caught my eye. He showed really good battling quality under a great ride from Billy Loughnane. Any sort of reproduction of that form gives him a very competitive chance.

The current favourite R P MCMURPHY is there on merit for his LTO performance but he’s very short in the market. I had marked up his LTO performance as he did it the hard way coming around all the horses.

I’ve backed KING OF SPEED EW @ 7.5 BOG

 

[davewatts50]

7:45 WOLVERHAMPTON Handicap (0-80) (4) 4yo+ over 5F

As I’ve previously mentioned somewhere sprint races at Wolverhampton are rarely about who has the most raw ability. For me, it’s always about fast breaks from the stalls and early positioning with low drawn horse having a distinct advantage. Over 5f, there’s barely any time to recover from any mistakes. Generally, I like to back the top jockeys not claimers for this reason.

The run to the first bend is very short therefore if you’re drawn wide and miss the kick, you’re in a whole heap of the smelly stuff. Therefore the draw plays a big part especially if drawn wide.

Taking the above comments in mind we have the
ever powerful Pace Angle. For me, SAM'S XPRESS in (Stall 4) has it all to lose.

Those that have read my book will recognise the following running comments:

His run comments are almost repetitive: “Made all.” “Soon led.” “Set strong pace.” He’s the only confirmed front-runner in the field. From Stall 4, he should have a clean line to the rail and first bend and the chance to dictate the race. Around this tight track, an uncontested lead is a major positive.

SAM'S XPRESS is an in form 6 year old gelding who’s a course & distance winner. He

last won 45 days ago and has had 1 race since. He last ran 20 days ago at Lingfield in a Class 5 over 5 furlongs, finishing a good third beaten by 0.25 lengths.

Today, he’s upped to a Class 4 over the same distance. His highest winning mark is 67 in this and he’s off 73 today.

Looking at negatives, he’s never run in a class 4 so it’s an unknown. His handicap mark is a touch higher than I would have liked.

With that said, the advantage he has off being the line front runner outweighs the negatives for me.

I see the main dangers as Alondra (Stall 3) won nicely here just four days ago (9 Feb) one of my previous selections. If Sams Xpress goes too hard up front and burns out, she’s the one I’d expect to capitalise.

El Bufalo is chasing a hat-trick after two C&D wins. He has the form and visually he looks impressive but the race metrics don’t agree. I think he will get plenty of market support. The biggest negative is he’s drawn Stall 7 of 7 so he’s going to have to come the long way round or have a burn up from the gate in order to try and get a position. Either way I don’t fancy his chances today.

I’ve a Win Bet on Sams Xpress 4.1

 

[chaumi]

...and fwiw, the trainer says...

"Sam'x Xpress loves this track and comes here in great form. This is the highest grade he's ever encountered but we don't think the race is strong for the grade. Hopefully he will be thereabouts."

Tbf, the stable have historically regularly-enough been on the ball with their stable views, which suggests they can pre-read races well enough.

 

[davewatts50]

Here are my bets for the UK's all-weather races today. Initial selections are from the Wolverhampton tonight’s meeting. There may be more to follow later.

Note, the point of writing up these selections is always to illustrate which horses are carrying my personal bets. And those bets are always derived/determined from the processes outlined in the book: UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on the AW


5:15 WOLVERHAMPTON - Apprentice Handicap (0-65) (6) 4yo+ 1M 142y

KING OF SPEED is my EW selection in this race.

He’s an in form 7 year old gelding that is a proven course and distance winner. He last won 62 days ago over C&D and has had 1 race since finishing 3rd also over C&D. On that occasion he didn’t get a decent position and was forced to run wide. I don’t think he was given a hard time once the race was lost.

It was the race that he won on the 13/12/2026 that really caught my eye. He showed really good battling quality under a great ride from Billy Loughnane. Any sort of reproduction of that form gives him a very competitive chance.

The current favourite R P MCMURPHY is there on merit for his LTO performance but he’s very short in the market. I had marked up his LTO performance as he did it the hard way coming around all the horses.

I’ve backed KING OF SPEED EW @ 7.5 BOG

I’m still going through the race replay as in my mind he had to get a place as a minimum. Maybe the horse is unwell and scopes dirty.

However, watching the race closely. He was positioned really well throughout and looked good into the home straight. The jockey seems to give up as soon as the horse is challenged. He doesn’t use his whip for the last 0.5 furlongs.

It didn’t look like a really strong pace but once I see the sectional information then maybe that might say differently.

Very disappointed sorry guys.

 

[Danny]

I find it strange you feel the need to apologise when one gets beat Dave. Its gotta be the norm to have losers and losing runs. If people are following your bets and betting them for themselves then its all about the long run and its their choice to do so. I'm sure you'll turn a profit over the duration of your stay here and I'm sure with the start you've had everyone who's following you is already in the black.

It's all good.

 

[chaumi]

Everyone here knows (or should know) the game.

Nuff said.

But it's great that you analyze them afterwards, Dave.

 

[davewatts50]

I find it strange you feel the need to apologise when one gets beat Dave. Its gotta be the norm to have losers and losing runs. If people are following your bets and betting them for themselves then its all about the long run and its their choice to do so. I'm sure you'll turn a profit over the duration of your stay here and I'm sure with the start you've had everyone who's following you is already in the black.

It's all good.

Thanks Danny, I think it’s a carry over from my old blog where I was getting abuse from a few trolls. The fact is if they lose I’ve lost as I bet on every selection I post. The same if they win.

I’m never going to be posting any bets that are 2/1 or less as that’s almost cheating. My aim is to be profitable and I know I can be. There will always be a few bumps in the road along the way for sure.

Cheers Dave

 

[barjon]

2/1 is cheating? Bugger it, you’ve caught me.

 

[Len Madeiros]

You had the first three in the 7:45, Dave; not quite the order we wanted. But you were right how the race panned out, with Sam Xpress running out of puff and Alhondra hanging on.

Unlucky.

 

[davewatts50]

2/1 is cheating? Bugger it, you’ve caught me.

It really doesn’t matter as long as they keep winning.

 

[davewatts50]

You had the first three in the 7:45, Dave; not quite the order we wanted. But you were right how the race panned out, with Sam Xpress running out of puff and Alhondra hanging on.

Unlucky.

Yeah, it’s disappointing. The market had it right. The bit in the stalls at the start wasn’t the best. The best horse won. The draw beat El Bufalo as I thought it might. That said he ran a strong race and had he been drawn low it might been close.

I thought the winner did it quite easily. There could be more to come.

Sam did exactly what I expected . He does everything right but just doesn’t finish off his races. He needs to drop in class to find some races to win.