davewatts50
Amateur Rider
Here are my bets for the UK's all-weather races today. Initial selections are from the Southwell meeting. There may be more to follow later.
Note, the point of writing up these selections is always to illustrate which horses are carrying my personal bets. And those bets are always derived/determined from the processes outlined in the book: UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on
I’ve broken down the 19:20 at Southwell for you. This 1m Class 6 handicap on the Tapeta is a bit of a puzzle, but the metrics point toward a couple of clear angles regarding pace and efficiency.
My Pace & Draw Analysis
The 1m start here can be tricky. Because it begins on a bend, I’m looking at those drawn low to save ground, though we often see jockeys swing wide in the straight.
I think Marry The Night is going to have to burn a lot of energy to get across from that wide draw and that could be the undoing of him later in the race. I don't fancy his chances.
No real bias with the draw Study Up (Stall 1) and Fools Rush In (Stall 2). I can see Fools Rush In going forwards. If he can hold their spots on the rail, he will have a much easier trip than the favourite who is drawn wide. I can see Asian Journey tracking the pace and not getting into a burn up this time.
In his last run over this course and distance, Asian Journey finished 2nd, beaten only by a head. This was a fast run race. being 1.45 seconds faster than the par over C&D.
FSP% (Finishing Speed Percentage): He recorded an FSP of 97.6%. Not a big finishing figure, but that was the result of them going off at breakneck speed early on.
While Marry The Night (the favourite) used his energy late in the race with an FSP% of 105.41 which is high suggesting the pace was slow. A time Index of 5.9 was 0.5 higher than the average on the day. Where Asian Journey recorded a Time index of 7.2 and the average was 5.4 suggesting the race was 1.8 faster than the average on the day.
I’m siding with Asian Journey. His sectional upgrade from his last run is the best in the field, making him my "most likely winner" if the pace is more sensible tonight.
I see Oisin Orr taking the ride on Asian Journey as a major statement of intent from Sam England’s yard.
I also wouldn't ignore Ivan Furtado; he’s a master at this track, and putting Elle-May Croot up to claim 5lb is a clever move which really brings Relevant Range into the equation.
I always keep a close eye on Ivan Furtado at Southwell. He’s operating at an 18% strike rate over the last 14 days. He excels at placing horses exactly where they can win, and Relevant Range being back at 1m (his optimal trip) suggests this has been the target since his close 3rd last week.
If the race is run at a breakneck gallop, it suits Asian Journey. But if it’s a tactical affair where they don't go overly fast, Relevant Range is much better equipped to pounce from a handy position. I can also see Mercurius Power running a good race at a big price.
My Bets
Asian Journey Win bet @ 5.0
Relevant Range EW bet @ 7.0
Note, the point of writing up these selections is always to illustrate which horses are carrying my personal bets. And those bets are always derived/determined from the processes outlined in the book: UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on
I’ve broken down the 19:20 at Southwell for you. This 1m Class 6 handicap on the Tapeta is a bit of a puzzle, but the metrics point toward a couple of clear angles regarding pace and efficiency.
My Pace & Draw Analysis
The 1m start here can be tricky. Because it begins on a bend, I’m looking at those drawn low to save ground, though we often see jockeys swing wide in the straight.
I think Marry The Night is going to have to burn a lot of energy to get across from that wide draw and that could be the undoing of him later in the race. I don't fancy his chances.
No real bias with the draw Study Up (Stall 1) and Fools Rush In (Stall 2). I can see Fools Rush In going forwards. If he can hold their spots on the rail, he will have a much easier trip than the favourite who is drawn wide. I can see Asian Journey tracking the pace and not getting into a burn up this time.
In his last run over this course and distance, Asian Journey finished 2nd, beaten only by a head. This was a fast run race. being 1.45 seconds faster than the par over C&D.
FSP% (Finishing Speed Percentage): He recorded an FSP of 97.6%. Not a big finishing figure, but that was the result of them going off at breakneck speed early on.
While Marry The Night (the favourite) used his energy late in the race with an FSP% of 105.41 which is high suggesting the pace was slow. A time Index of 5.9 was 0.5 higher than the average on the day. Where Asian Journey recorded a Time index of 7.2 and the average was 5.4 suggesting the race was 1.8 faster than the average on the day.
I’m siding with Asian Journey. His sectional upgrade from his last run is the best in the field, making him my "most likely winner" if the pace is more sensible tonight.
I see Oisin Orr taking the ride on Asian Journey as a major statement of intent from Sam England’s yard.
I also wouldn't ignore Ivan Furtado; he’s a master at this track, and putting Elle-May Croot up to claim 5lb is a clever move which really brings Relevant Range into the equation.
I always keep a close eye on Ivan Furtado at Southwell. He’s operating at an 18% strike rate over the last 14 days. He excels at placing horses exactly where they can win, and Relevant Range being back at 1m (his optimal trip) suggests this has been the target since his close 3rd last week.
If the race is run at a breakneck gallop, it suits Asian Journey. But if it’s a tactical affair where they don't go overly fast, Relevant Range is much better equipped to pounce from a handy position. I can also see Mercurius Power running a good race at a big price.
My Bets
Asian Journey Win bet @ 5.0
Relevant Range EW bet @ 7.0
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