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UK AW Track Bets Today 15/02/2026 - Betting Tips & Information, Race & Runner Analysis

D

davewatts50

Amateur Rider
Joined
Feb 2, 2026
Messages
86
Location
England
Here are my bets for the UK's all-weather races today. Initial selections are from the Newcastle meeting. There may be more to follow later.

Note, the point of writing up these selections is always to illustrate which horses are carrying my personal bets. And those bets are always derived/determined from the processes outlined in the book: UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on the AW

4:12 Newcastle - Handicap (Rider Restricted Race) (0-70) (5) 4yo+ over 7F (8 run)​


FLOWSTATE
He’s an in form in 5 year old gelding that’s a course and distance winner. He’s quite well handicapped. His highest winning mark is 66 and he’s 68 today.

He last ran 9 days ago at Newcastle in a Class 5 over 7 furlongs, finishing 1st winning by 0.05 lengths in a strong race. He’s running in the same class and over the same distance.


TASEVER
He’s an in form 6 year old gelding that’s also a course & distance winner. His highest winning mark is 66 and has a 71 Handicap rating which includes a 5lbs penalty for last time out win today.

He last ran 5 days ago at Newcastle in a Class 5 over 8 furlongs, finishing 1st by 0.30 lengths in a strong race. He’s running in the same class and down in distance to 7f.

I have had bets on the following selections.

FLOWSTATE Win bet at 5.0
TASEVER Win bet 3.75
 
davewatts50 said:
Here are my bets for the UK's all-weather races today. Initial selections are from the Newcastle meeting. There may be more to follow later.

Note, the point of writing up these selections is always to illustrate which horses are carrying my personal bets. And those bets are always derived/determined from the processes outlined in the book: UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on the AW

4:12 Newcastle - Handicap (Rider Restricted Race) (0-70) (5) 4yo+ over 7F (8 run)​


FLOWSTATE
He’s an in form in 5 year old gelding that’s a course and distance winner. He’s quite well handicapped. His highest winning mark is 66 and he’s 68 today.

He last ran 9 days ago at Newcastle in a Class 5 over 7 furlongs, finishing 1st winning by 0.05 lengths in a strong race. He’s running in the same class and over the same distance.


TASEVER
He’s an in form 6 year old gelding that’s also a course & distance winner. His highest winning mark is 66 and has a 71 Handicap rating which includes a 5lbs penalty for last time out win today.

He last ran 5 days ago at Newcastle in a Class 5 over 8 furlongs, finishing 1st by 0.30 lengths in a strong race. He’s running in the same class and down in distance to 7f.

I have had bets on the following selections.

FLOWSTATE Win bet at 5.0
TASEVER Win bet 3.75
Click to expand...
Nice win, Dave.
 
I had an interesting conversation with my mate regarding the 4:12 race. He couldn’t understand why I was supporting FLOWSTATE over FRONT GUNNER. The had raced each other on 6/2/2026 over C&D and FLOWSTATE had won by a nose.

My mates feeling was Front Gunner was now 5lbs better off on the handicap and now had a 7lbs claimer where as LTO had a 5lbs claimer. Effectively now 7lbs better off for a nose defeat.

I can see the logic in his thinking for sure and I’m very much s logical thinker. I said to him LTO Flowstate was short off room from about 2F out which hampered his progress. He had to play awaiting game and then make his charge.

It was a fast run race thanks to the fast pace set by Front Gunner and Goldmoyne. If you look at the FSP % for that race both the front runners were tiring up the hill hence the 98.51% and 97.23%. However Flowstate was still going strong with 100.21% and was the fastest finisher in the race.

Now onto today’s race. I expected Tasever, Front Gunner and Novak all to race from the front. My thinking was which one of these 3 will have the stamina after they have had there burn up. Tasever was my choice based on the fact he had won a strong 1M race at Newcastle recently and the 2nd placed horse had won yesterday. He’s also a C&D winner so the drop to 7F should inconvenience him too much. So that’s how I came to selecting Tasever.

Then onto Flowstate. He’s a 7F an out and out 7F horse who thrives at Newcastle. I felt if the pace was going to be frantic up front that was only going to play to his strengths. If he could get a clear run this time without interruption he would be coming past the tired front runners.

I couldn’t decide who would win but felt he or Tasever would win.

As it was, Tasever and Front Gunner burnt themselves out and Novak was the danger. Mark Winn needs some credit he ride a perfect race. He kept Flowstate in a great position and then him go at the right time.

Delighted with the result.
 

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