davewatts50
Amateur Rider
Here are my bets for the UK's all-weather races today. Initial selections are from the Southwell meeting. There may be more to follow later.
Note, the point of writing up these selections is always to illustrate which horses are carrying my personal bets. And those bets are always derived/determined from the processes outlined in the book: UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on
Wolverhampton 19:30
This seven-runner sprint looks an interesting tactical affair and the pace angle could easily decide the outcome.
Three front runners line up in Beauzon, Twilight Madness and Digital, all of them like to get on with things. That should ensure a solid gallop from the outset and there’s every chance the lead becomes contested. In small-field sprints at Wolverhampton, that early pace battle can often decide the race before they even straighten for home.
Beauzon arrives in excellent form having rattled off a sequence of wins and once again tops the ratings. He’s also a course and distance winner. Stall 1 looks ideal for his usual attacking style and if he breaks well he should be able to grab the rail and attempt to dictate. The RaceIQ data backs up his fat early pace.
The slight nagging doubt is that long winning runs don’t last forever, and with other pace angles in the race he may not get things entirely his own way this time. That said he looks a strong candidate to extend his winning sequence in this race.
Twilight Madness is a regular here and a proven course-and-distance winner. He has the speed to be involved early but his efforts can flatten out late if the early fractions are strong, something that could easily happen in this race.
Digital is another who likes to go forward and could add to the early pressure, though he arrives off a below-par run and looks slightly less convincing than the principals.
If the pace becomes contested, the race may well set up for something finishing late and Water Of Leith fits that scenario well. He tends to track the speed rather than force it and regularly finishes his races strongly here, so a strong early gallop would play right into his hands. His RaceIQ data tells me that he’s going to be involved at the business end.
Mumayaz is another capable of finishing well and could pick up the pieces if things totally collapse up front.
My Verdict
On pure form Beauzon sets the standard and from stall 1, he’ll be tough to peg back if allowed to dictate. However, with several pace rivals in the line-up, this could become a little more tactical than it first appears. If they go too hard early, Water Of Leith looks the one most likely to capitalise late, with Mumayaz another who could run on into the places if the leaders overdo things.
My Bets
Beauzon and Water Of Leith. Reverse Forecast
Note, the point of writing up these selections is always to illustrate which horses are carrying my personal bets. And those bets are always derived/determined from the processes outlined in the book: UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on
Wolverhampton 19:30
This seven-runner sprint looks an interesting tactical affair and the pace angle could easily decide the outcome.
Three front runners line up in Beauzon, Twilight Madness and Digital, all of them like to get on with things. That should ensure a solid gallop from the outset and there’s every chance the lead becomes contested. In small-field sprints at Wolverhampton, that early pace battle can often decide the race before they even straighten for home.
Beauzon arrives in excellent form having rattled off a sequence of wins and once again tops the ratings. He’s also a course and distance winner. Stall 1 looks ideal for his usual attacking style and if he breaks well he should be able to grab the rail and attempt to dictate. The RaceIQ data backs up his fat early pace.
The slight nagging doubt is that long winning runs don’t last forever, and with other pace angles in the race he may not get things entirely his own way this time. That said he looks a strong candidate to extend his winning sequence in this race.
Twilight Madness is a regular here and a proven course-and-distance winner. He has the speed to be involved early but his efforts can flatten out late if the early fractions are strong, something that could easily happen in this race.
Digital is another who likes to go forward and could add to the early pressure, though he arrives off a below-par run and looks slightly less convincing than the principals.
If the pace becomes contested, the race may well set up for something finishing late and Water Of Leith fits that scenario well. He tends to track the speed rather than force it and regularly finishes his races strongly here, so a strong early gallop would play right into his hands. His RaceIQ data tells me that he’s going to be involved at the business end.
Mumayaz is another capable of finishing well and could pick up the pieces if things totally collapse up front.
My Verdict
On pure form Beauzon sets the standard and from stall 1, he’ll be tough to peg back if allowed to dictate. However, with several pace rivals in the line-up, this could become a little more tactical than it first appears. If they go too hard early, Water Of Leith looks the one most likely to capitalise late, with Mumayaz another who could run on into the places if the leaders overdo things.
My Bets
Beauzon and Water Of Leith. Reverse Forecast
