davewatts50
Amateur Rider
Here are my bets for the UK's all-weather races today. Initial selections are from the Newcastle meeting. There may be more to follow later.
Note, the point of writing up these selections is always to illustrate which horses are carrying my personal bets. And those bets are always derived/determined from the processes outlined in the book: UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on the AW
7:00 NEWCASTLE - Classified Stakes (Rider Restricted Race) (Div II) (0-50) (6) 4yo+ 6F
BENEFICIARY - Is an inform 7 year old gelding who’s a course and distance winner. He last ran 9 days ago at Newcastle in a Class 6 over 6 furlongs, finishing 2nd and beaten by 1.25 lengths. That race was run at a fair clip as Beneficiary took a strong early lead and the rest of the field were left to chase him down. He was final worn down by The Gay Blade. Looking at the race Jack Garritty went too strong early on and paid the price for it.
Looking at the shape of the race, there are two that like to go forwards Beneficiary and Classy Clarets. The remainder of the field generally run in midfield or are late closing types but none of them look like they are strong closers.
This must favour the prominent runners which helps in short listing potential winners. Beneficiary is the favourite for good reason. Having watched the replays it looks like the last two race he had raced too strong early on and paid the price late on.
I believe today is his day. This grade of racing generally sees the best horse winning
In this grade that matters. Most rivals struggle to finish; he actually does finish, he just went too hard. I believe similar tactics will be used again today but this time I believe Jack Garritty will get the fractions right. If he repeats the performance from LTO he wins the race.
BENEFICIARY Win bet @ 4.0 BOG
Note, the point of writing up these selections is always to illustrate which horses are carrying my personal bets. And those bets are always derived/determined from the processes outlined in the book: UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on the AW
7:00 NEWCASTLE - Classified Stakes (Rider Restricted Race) (Div II) (0-50) (6) 4yo+ 6F
BENEFICIARY - Is an inform 7 year old gelding who’s a course and distance winner. He last ran 9 days ago at Newcastle in a Class 6 over 6 furlongs, finishing 2nd and beaten by 1.25 lengths. That race was run at a fair clip as Beneficiary took a strong early lead and the rest of the field were left to chase him down. He was final worn down by The Gay Blade. Looking at the race Jack Garritty went too strong early on and paid the price for it.
Looking at the shape of the race, there are two that like to go forwards Beneficiary and Classy Clarets. The remainder of the field generally run in midfield or are late closing types but none of them look like they are strong closers.
This must favour the prominent runners which helps in short listing potential winners. Beneficiary is the favourite for good reason. Having watched the replays it looks like the last two race he had raced too strong early on and paid the price late on.
I believe today is his day. This grade of racing generally sees the best horse winning
In this grade that matters. Most rivals struggle to finish; he actually does finish, he just went too hard. I believe similar tactics will be used again today but this time I believe Jack Garritty will get the fractions right. If he repeats the performance from LTO he wins the race.
BENEFICIARY Win bet @ 4.0 BOG
