davewatts50
Amateur Rider
Here are my bets for the UK's all-weather races today. Initial selections are from the Lingfield meeting. There may be more to follow later.
Note, the point of writing up these selections is always to illustrate which horses are carrying my personal bets. And those bets are always derived/determined from the processes outlined in the book: UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on
2:42 LINGFIELD - Party Bear is an In Form 4 year old filly who’s course & distance winner. She last won 27 days ago and has had 1 race since. Her LTO effort was 13 days ago at Newcastle in a Class 5 over 7 furlongs, finishing 4/4 beaten by 26.75 lengths. What has to be remembered is she was leading that race when her saddle slip and then she was eased down. I feel she was travelling really well and I believe she had every chance of winning if the saddle hadn’t slipped. I think the fact she finished last has significantly impacted her price in the market.
Her highest winning mark is 70 and she is running off a mark 73 today. In my opinion she’s quite well handicapped.
The only negative I can draw is that she is upped to a Class 2 and she has never competed at this level. That said Karl Burke is a really good trainer and he could have chosen plenty of easier options for her. He knows she’s a progressive filly and he obviously thinks she’s up to the task as do I.
The main dangers I see as Mereside Diva and Penelope Valentine.
Party Bear EW @ 11.0 BOG
Note, the point of writing up these selections is always to illustrate which horses are carrying my personal bets. And those bets are always derived/determined from the processes outlined in the book: UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on
2:42 LINGFIELD - Party Bear is an In Form 4 year old filly who’s course & distance winner. She last won 27 days ago and has had 1 race since. Her LTO effort was 13 days ago at Newcastle in a Class 5 over 7 furlongs, finishing 4/4 beaten by 26.75 lengths. What has to be remembered is she was leading that race when her saddle slip and then she was eased down. I feel she was travelling really well and I believe she had every chance of winning if the saddle hadn’t slipped. I think the fact she finished last has significantly impacted her price in the market.
Her highest winning mark is 70 and she is running off a mark 73 today. In my opinion she’s quite well handicapped.
The only negative I can draw is that she is upped to a Class 2 and she has never competed at this level. That said Karl Burke is a really good trainer and he could have chosen plenty of easier options for her. He knows she’s a progressive filly and he obviously thinks she’s up to the task as do I.
The main dangers I see as Mereside Diva and Penelope Valentine.
Party Bear EW @ 11.0 BOG
