Uk House Prices To Crash

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Thatcher was all about conflict and saw it as her mission to try rid the country of Labour and it's supposed socialist leanings. What she didn't realise is that both parties shared the same establishment interests and were essentially on the same side working for the same capitalist interests.
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oh come off it!

She knew exactly what labour was all about and im sure she could clearly differentiate between the Healey's and the Benns

If she wanted to rid the country of "socialism", then surely the best way would have been to go for drippy consenual politics?. The far left probably had a revival under her administration, which was remarkable, becase as we now know, far left politics were in terminal natural decline (to the extent that they have now hitched themselves to the neo religous facists)

Still she had an easy ride. Nationlising the top 100 companies and dismantling our defence were not exactly the sanest policies weve seen.
 
Originally posted by Warbler@Sep 18 2007, 01:02 PM
Your sense of irony is appreciated Simmo, these people are indeed the modern day Kulak and will be dealt with accordingly. You obviously have an appreciation of these things. Although I had Phil Waters pencilled in as my head of the NKVD I think you'd make an extremely effectively regional governer, reporting to my Supreme Soviet. Consider yoursef appointed.
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Rename Vauxhall Cross to Simmo Cross and you've got a deal.
 
Originally posted by ovverbruv@Sep 16 2007, 03:21 PM
I hope there is a crash, prices are unrealistic and at the moment I have very few options for buying. I would like to see a drop of roughly 25% so that people on decent but not huge wages (£19500 for me) could afford a house in an area that isnt economically deprived.
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I have to say, I agree with this. I think prices at the moment are nuts, out of reach of most first time buyers. Me and my fiance are trying to save for a deposit at the moment, but the only way I can see us affording a house is if I cash in my pension scheme which I've been paying into for the last 13 years, and using that as part payment. We're saving as much as we can, but it will be a good 5 years at this rate before we could afford a mortgage. I'd like to buy before I'm 35 so I can have a 30 year mortgage which would be paid off when I retire. That really gives us four years :D

Decent sized flats around here are going for £200k+, even studio flats are over £100k, you won't get even a basic small house in the worst place in town for less than £180k. My wages as a fully trained legal professional are £19k a year, which is considered a good wage for Dorset, I am by far the chief breadwinner (my fiance is 20 and just starting out on the careers path). You can see how it doesn't add up.

Also, renting is very expensive in this area, even bedsits are circa £400 a month, so that's dead money straight away - hard to save when you're having to pay out a considerable proportion of your wages on the bills.

We're considering actually moving in with my parents for a year to save as much as we possibly can - would be a bit of a horror but the offer is there and it would only be short term...

Fingers crossed that things are ok in 4/5 years time when we come to buy, prices have dropped a bit and interest rates aren't sky high.
 
Purr, moving in with your parents is probably a good thing. Like you say, you can save more money, and you may even find that the prices of the houses you have been looking at, come down in price. Just remember it may only be for a year!

When I took on my first house, I took on a 25 year endownment (yes, not a bright move) but I sold the house and kept the endownment going. In a few years I should hopefully have a payout of what the endowment was meant to have covered. I am still not convinced it will pay out anything near the £63750 we paid for the house but I am constantly assured it won't be "far off". I beg to differ.

I was 26 years old when I brought my first house and thought taking out a 25 year mortgage was ludicrous. When I hear they offer 30 year and 35 year mortgages now it terrifies me especially when you look at the prices - plus all the extra's you have to pay for as well. I don't know how many people in their 20's or 30's can even contemplate taking on such a massive loan.
 
Rumour has it (don't you just love that word :) ) that the BoE are going to cut interest rates. They dropped the interest rate in the US by half a percent yesterday. I wonder what they will do here?
 
Probably more of a correction than a crash! shrug:: Good news for some people but not for others. I for one will be watching closely. :what:


House prices fall at the fastest rate in two years
Angela Balakrishnan
Thursday October 11, 2007
The Guardian


House prices across the UK tumbled last month at the fastest rate for two years, a leading industry survey shows today, while demand from first-time buyers plummeted sharply, adding to widespread evidence that the housing boom could be over.
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said house prices declined in September for the second month in a row with 14.6% more surveyors reporting a fall in prices rather than a rise. This was an increase on the 3.3% more surveyors that reported a fall over a price rise in August.

New buyer enquiries fell for the tenth consecutive month and at the fastest pace since March 2003 as five interest rate rises by the Bank of England since August last year and recent tightening of mortgage lending criteria put up the cost of a home. "The combination of rising interest rates, the introduction of home information packs and volatility in the financial markets resulting in tightening of lending criteria, has certainly affected the confidence of buyers and sellers," said Jeremy Leaf, spokesman for RICS. "As a result, some would-be buyers are turning to the rental market."
"At this time of the year and just before Christmas we would usually see the market pick up after children go back to school," said Ian Sandy, a surveyor in Mansfield, Nottinghamshire. "We are seeing a very depressed market."

However Mr Leaf said a market meltdown was unlikely. Recent data show that the UK's underlying economy remains strong and with speculation high that the next move in interest rates will be down rather than up, Mr Leaf said buyers were using the opportunity to negotiate with more flexible vendors.

The survey showed vendors are under no pressure to sell, and the supply of new properties on the market fell for the fourth month and at the sharpest rate since June, helping to support house prices. However, London, whose economy is heavily geared towards the financial services sector, was the only region in the survey to experience a rise in sale instructions.

Scotland saw the strongest price growth, but large price falls were recorded in East Anglia, Wales, and the Midlands. The south-east, north-west, south-west and Yorkshire and Humberside also saw small decreases in price. London showed a small rise in prices. The RICS September survey follows other price indices from the Halifax and Nationwide which also showed that the housing market was starting to turn from the double-digit annual price growth seen earlier this year.

Looking ahead, RICS said that surveyor confidence had further deteriorated, especially following the Northern Rock crisis. Sales expectations hit the lowest levels for over four years. Expectations of prices rises fell to the weakest level for over two years.

Many economic forecasting groups have said that the housing market will be particularly hard hit next year as the full impact from the credit crunch is felt.
 
A correction is long overdue.

The price of housing in this country is insane, compared to our European neighbours.

You can argue that countries like France and Spain have more land area relativeto their population sizes and so you'd expect property to be cheaper, but prices in densely populated Belgium and Holland are barely half of what they are in the UK, and these countries have comparable per capita GDPs.
 
Originally posted by Venusian@Oct 11 2007, 11:51 PM
A correction is long overdue.

The price of housing in this country is insane, compared to our European neighbours.

You can argue that countries like France and Spain have more land area relativeto their population sizes and so you'd expect property to be cheaper, but prices in densely populated Belgium and Holland are barely half of what they are in the UK, and these countries have comparable per capita GDPs.
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Prices on the Costa Del Sol have increased at the same rate as the UK but will crash far faster.
 
There WILL be a house price crash next April - Alistair Darling made sure of that in his pre-budget speech on Wednesday. Buy-to-let landlords who previously would have had to pay 40% CGT if selling a property in the first two years and then 24% will offload properties from April because from then they will only pay 18%.
I am not a buy to let landlord by the way. I am somebody who set up their own business 5 years ago. I’ve risked a lot, worked very long hours, sacrificed time with the family and suffered financially. We spent a lot of time and money implementing an Enterprise Management Incentive (EMI) Share Option Scheme so we could attract high quality individuals who would stay with the company. The advantage of a qualifying EMI scheme is that the tax relief on CGT is tapered so that if we sell the company, we would pay 10% tax on the gain if the shares had been held for 2 years. This is what Gordon Brown said when he announced the scheme :-
This Government today sends a clear signal of support for enterprise to those who invest in the UK. My message to business is — when you are ready to start out, start up, start investing or start hiring — this Government is on your side.
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. Then this week in a totally cac-handed attempt to stop private equity firms taking advantage of the tax system to only pay 10% tax they have effectively hiked the tax rate of entrepreneurs such as myself by 80% by introducing a flat rate CGT of 18%. Whilst I applaud their intentions, I can’t believe that with all the resources available to the government they can only come up with a scheme that will lead to a fire sale as entrepreneurs look to sell their business before April 2008. It is absurd !
 
I don`t think property owners need worry.

With the Inheritance Tax battle well and truly won, I`m sure the Telegraph, Mail and Express are, probably, already preparing their next campaign which will be either to make it illegal for property prices to fall or, alternatively, provide a suitable compensation scheme for any poor soul affected by any falls. You know it makes sense!!
 
I really find it impossible to envisage a 'crash'. A short-term blip, perhaps, but that would only make it a good time to buy which, in turn, will help the market recover its buoyancy.

Just as a number of shrewdies look set to pick up on virtually bets to nothing on Northern Rock, so a greater number will make a decent profit by cashing in on a drop in house prices.
 
Yep, even The Times are scaremongering now with headlines like that - but what the hell would they know according to some people on this forum. :eek: Let's wait and see.
UK house market is ‘heading for crash’Courtesy of The Times
Gary Duncan, Economics Editor
The property boom of the past ten years has left the British housing market in danger of following the slump in American house prices, the International Monetary Fund said yesterday.

In a bleak warning, the IMF found that homes in Britain were overpriced by up to 40 per cent — far more than the overpricing in the US before the current property slump began there. The finding will fuel fears over housing market prospects after growing evidence recently that prices have already begun to fall in some parts of Britain.

The warning came as it emerged yesterday that the Bank of England discussed whether to lower interest rates this month to shore up Britain’s growth. But there was substantial reluctance among the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee to rush into lowering borrowing costs, with only one of the nine-strong panel voting for a rate reduction.

The IMF report said: “The extent of house price overvaluation may be considerably larger in some national markets in Europe than in the US. The estimates suggest that a number of advanced economies’ housing markets outside the US could be vulnerable to a correction.”


House prices and the great affordability gap
Mortgage payments are making up the biggest share of take-home pay for 17 years, according to newly released figures

House prices slow on interest rate rises
Householders dipping into savings
Tories propose a cash handout for long-term tenants to buy homes
Background
First-time buyers are deserting property market
Flat rate on capital gains ‘will help house prices’
Buy-to-let keeps housing market going
Lenders to get help to promote longer fixes
Half of young workers pushed out of housing market

Don’t let the headlines give you nightmares
It is probable that the property market is not only coming off the boil but also is about to feel a nasty chill

House prices in Britain now stand at about nine times average annual earnings — up from about five times in 2001. Average national house prices have risen threefold since the early 1990s, from about £60,000 to about £200,000 now.

In its twice-yearly report on world economic prospects, the IMF warned Europe’s governments that the tighter lending conditions for homebuyers caused by the worldwide squeeze on credit could lead to a serious correction in excessive house prices.

“The steady increase in interest rates has already contributed to some cooling of these housing booms, and recent developments are likely to have a further dampening impact,” it said.

The IMF, however, did qualify its pessimism, saying that there were “considerable uncertainties” in its model, which did not take in key factors in Britain such as shortages of supply, boosts to prices from immigration and greater affordability due to the availability of mortgages.
 
Interesting to see the prices of houses in the US right now, bearing in mind they are still mostly on a downward spiral. It's interesting to see what you can buy over there - bearing in mind these are just the asking prices. :eek:

http://international.propertyfinder.com/2/...ROPERTY_DETAILS

It's nice to look especially as it is starting to get colder here in the UK! This is just of hundreds on that particular website.
 
News from the Land Registry - the only reliable source of house price statistics because they record the actual prices - that house prices across the country rose by 0.4% in September. This gave a rise of 8.7% over 12 months compared with 9.4% for the year to end August.
So, as opposed to the Daily Kathygraph :P , the Archie Echo repeats :ph34r: that house prices are still rising but the rate of rise is slowing down.
 
If this price crash is going to materialise, why did a report today say that houses are becoming less and less affordable?
 
What the hell would the Financial Times know about the housing market slowing down? shrug::

FT index confirms housing market cooling
By Chris Giles, Economics Editor

Published: November 9 2007 09:37 | Last updated: November 9 2007 09:37

House price inflation peaked in June , with the market slowing ever since, the November FT house price index shows. Half of the regional markets in England and Wales have experienced falling house prices since the June peak.

In October, house prices were 8.9 per cent higher than a year earlier, a fall in the inflation rate from 9.2 per cent in September and a high of 10.1 per cent in June. The annualised rate of growth over the past three months is even lower at 6.1 per cent, suggesting house price inflation will continue on a downward path.
Regional house price data
Our interactive map shows house price changes across the country click here
The figures confirm a slowing property market, something the Bank of England and people seeking to enter the housing market have been looking for all year. Peter Williams, chairman of Acadametrics, the consultancy that compiles the index , said: “The data suggest that the market turned in around May or June 2007”.

The question that few are willing to forecast with any certainty is how far and how quickly the market will slow. “What we are witnessing is a market in transition - albeit at this stage it is hard to predict where it might settle,” Mr Williams added.

The FT index shows the prices achieved by vendors in the northern half of England and the midlands fell between June and September, with the North, the North West, Yorkshire and Humberside, the East Midlands and the West Midlands all suffering declines.

Southern English regions experienced continued rising house prices, although at a slower rate, while Wales bucked the slowing trend with a steady market.

The rise of London’s house prices is still far out of line with the rest of England and Wales. Transaction prices rocketed 17.3 per cent in the year to September. But even in London the more recent data has been somewhat cooler. The three month annualised growth rate between June and September stood at 12.5 per cent.

The figures are in line with other surveys of house prices, which often have very volatile monthly movements but have begun to show a slowing market at all stages from asking prices though to completed transactions.

The slowdown in demand appears to have multiple causes. First-time buyers have increasingly been priced out of the market, both by rising house prices and higher interest rates. Investors seeking a buy-to-let property have become more cautious as the market peaked. And those with patchy credit histories can expect to have much more difficulty in finding a low-cost mortgage as lenders have sharply increased the cost of their subprime mortgages.

The FT index is more comprehensive than the lenders’ data since it is based on the final sale price of every transaction recorded by the Land Registry. The lenders’ figures are based on agreed prices on a sample of properties needing a mortgage.

Scotland is not covered by the Land Registry and is not part of the FT index. The FT’s index is subject to revision as there are sometimes delays in reporting housing transaction to the Land Registry. September’s annual rate of house price inflation has been revised up to 9.2 per cent from the previously published figure of 8.8 per cent.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007
 
Halifax showed a 0.5% fall in October which meant just a 0.3% rise in Q3.*

Cooling at this stage - no more.
 
A fall is definitely needed, perhaps 10 to 20%, and then, if the projected surge in housebuilding actually happens, we may be able to look forward to a long period of stable prices.

You never know, the strange British obsession with house prices may eventually disappear, and not before time.
 
If a slowdown helps first-time buyers, keeps investors cautious, and makes it more difficult for those with poor credit to get mortgages (all of which are mentioned in the above article), I'm finding it hard to see what's so bad about it*.

*easy for me to say as a debt-free renter, I guess.
 
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