UK Racing - What happens next

granger

granger

Senior Jockey
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As more regulars return (myself included), this seems like a topic that people should have opinion on

The State of British Racing

There are 2 top trainers, one of which cotton wool's his best horses and the other who does run his horses but is unearthing good but not great horses

There are a bunch of trainers who have good owners and great facilities but I'd struggle to name 5 decent horses they train - Alan King, Jonjo, David Pipe

Skelton, Olly Murphy, Harry Fry - again nothing special

As for the horse side of things, UK trainers are paying fortunes for pointers but the best of these stay here when it comes to track performance

What happens when Nicky does pack things in? Which seems closer than it is further away
 
Nico will take over the Seven Barrows yard.

Suspect he’ll pack in riding when his master retires.
 
Well, nothing is fucked. According to Rodway Twister, Kingo and even Tom ******* Lacey are all better than Elliott, Cromwell and Henry.
 
The 'best' trainers are generally those with the wealthiest owners, and right now, the money is largely concentrated in Ireland.

It wasn't so long ago (10-12 years?) that the opposite applied. I figure these things are cyclical, and there will be an upturn in the fortunes of UK trainers eventually.
 
As form students/punters, we work within the parameters of the situation in which we find ourselves.

We can't do anything about how these guys buy or train their horses, just adapt accordingly.

If we get it right we'll do okay on the punting front. If not we lose.
 
Grasshopper said:
The 'best' trainers are generally those with the wealthiest owners, and right now, the money is largely concentrated in Ireland.

It wasn't so long ago (10-12 years?) that the opposite applied. I figure these things are cyclical, and there will be an upturn in the fortunes of UK trainers eventually.
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When you see the prices that UK buyers pay, I don't think this is fully true

I do agree these things are cyclical, but think this is more to do with how horses are prepped, the different way races are run and the fact that the top Irish yards have access to or better knowledge of young horses coming to the sales

And if brutally honest, I do think the Irish trainers are just better right now
 
Mullins alone will win more races at Cheltenham than the UK this season.

Wouldn’t be the worst bet for the trainers title. He has the fire power should he wish. Thats providing he sends his second and third strings over.
 
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granger said:
When you see the prices that UK buyers pay, I don't think this is fully true

I do agree these things are cyclical, but think this is more to do with how horses are prepped, the different way races are run and the fact that the top Irish yards have access to or better knowledge of young horses coming to the sales

And if brutally honest, I do think the Irish trainers are just better right now
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Nah; it's all tied into prize money, and Ireland attracting better horse for that reason.
UK purses need fixing, and quickly.
 
granger said:
When you see the prices that UK buyers pay, I don't think this is fully true

I do agree these things are cyclical, but think this is more to do with how horses are prepped, the different way races are run and the fact that the top Irish yards have access to or better knowledge of young horses coming to the sales

And if brutally honest, I do think the Irish trainers are just better right now
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Might be some truth in that, tbh.

Through the season, Irish horses generally seem to have harder (for want of a better word) campaigns than UK horses.

Too many races at the top-end in the UK are uncompetitive affairs - both in terms of numbers and quality of horse. And a result, I think Irish horses are better prepared physically and mentally, for the Spring Festivals.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Might be some truth in that, tbh.

Through the season, Irish horses generally seem to have harder (for want of a better word) campaigns than UK horses.

Too many races at the top-end in the UK are uncompetitive affairs - both in terms of numbers and quality of horse. And a result, I think Irish horses are better prepared physically and mentally, for the Spring Festivals.
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Yes. (And maybe no.)

It wasn't long ago Michael Dickinson talked about when Monica was doing the training they were happy with how things were going but brought along a sports scientist chap to ask for advice on how to do things better.

He watched a session of gallops then said, "Is that it? Is that all they do?"

When pressed by Dickinson he explained that the horses were athletes and needed to train like athletes; they needed to do more work to get them a lot fitter. Shortly after that the Dickinsons started to dominate the sport.

Pipe got his horses hard fit, also using more scientific approaches. The cost of that is regularly debated.

I think Nicholls, Skelton etc do likewise and horses nowadays probably are harder fit than a [human] generation ago.

Then again, Tom Dreaper was interval-training them in the time of Arkle. Could that have been why his best horses were so much better than the others?

So, if horses are generally harder trained than before, what is Mullins etc doing that is making their horses 'better' than the hard-trained British ones? Is it the deep-sand gallops?

Does anyone keep an eye on the attrition rates of the big Irish yards the way they did/do on Pipe's, Nicholls's, etc? I have no figures myself but it seems every so often we get news that one or two of Elliott's or Mullins's is/are out for the season but there's never any criticism of it.

Just penning some thoughts as they occur to me, by the way. No strong opinion intended.
 
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It's also a truism for most athletes that you can only get so fit in training, and that 'match-fitness' puts you on another level again.

My point is that UK horses (at the top-end) perhaps don't get as much from 'match-fitness' as their Irish counterparts, due to the races they contest generally being less exacting in terms of the effort required to win them. That also plays into the mental fitness aspect.

Graded Irish horses have (in recent seasons, at least) needed to do more to win their races, than UK horses at the same level. In my view, the more competitive nature of the Irish Graded pattern, better primes their horses - physically and mentally - to run to a particular level. The odd outlier aside, Graded UK horses are generally running in less competitive races, and are often found wanting, when required to run to a significantly better level when facing Irish opposition at the Festivals.

Re Mullins and what he does differently, whilst he undoubtedly has access to the best stock, he is also fearless about running his horses in the top Irish races, which plays into the previous point (imo).
 
I won't/can't disagree with any of that, GH.

I do think, largely, that most of the top-end UK horses have only two main targets in mind during a season, in the sense that they are trained to absolutely peak for those two races, one in mid-late autumn or over the Festive period, the other in the spring, and wonder if that is enough.
 
Also far less option for Irish novices so they inevitably will face good horses before the spring which as long as they stay injury free, will obviously stand to them
 
The odd UK trainer managing to snare one or two big money P2P recruits isn't comparable to the number that Gordon, Willie and Henry recruit every year.

Gordon must have 20+ who have either been bought through the sales or privately come to him every year. Perhaps 2/3 of those will be Grade 1 animals in the earlier years and plenty will prove to be expensive mistakes, like for any other trainer.

Willie is increasingly active in the P2P market and has has even been buying them up before they've run in P2Ps. And then you get to his complete choke hold he has on the French market. His buying network is obscene.

He has in excess of 30 French recruits for this season, before you take into account any stores or P2P recruits. He's basically adding a medium sized stable to his existing stock every year and cutting the crap from the bottom.

From my counting, Nicholls, who would probably be the largest French importer at a somewhat comparable level in terms of stable size over here, has 5/6 and the same again from the P2P sphere - albeit some very expensive purchases which hasn't been like them for a while. It will be interesting to see how they fare as Malone's record for him in that area is pish in the main.

I'm very intrigued by the move to buying 20+ stores every year. There have been some good horses unearthed so far, but no top notcher and they all seem to be very immature early on and take a good couple of years to settle.

Nicky has always tended to have that owner/breeder network and his record with them is absurdly good. He's done well with his P2P recruits too.

The Irish calendar and prize money is on a different planet though. There's an established pathway for basically any graded horse throughout the season and limited options to duck them and the handicappers have viciously competitive options throughout. Its a different level altogether.

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Henry started out very small and built an empire

I can't have it that certain UK trainers have not been endowed with more obvious success paths but have remained at best average
 
granger said:
Henry started out very small and built an empire

I can't have it that certain UK trainers have not been endowed with more obvious success paths but have remained at best average
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No disagreement there. He's top class. I'm surprised it has taken as long as it has for so many good horses to land his way. If I had a horse, it would be going under his care.

Olly Murphy has been bitterly disappointing over here. The money poured into that yard 2/3 years back was astronomical and they've gone backwards rapidly. He basically admitted today he's unable to pick the right races for his horses and he's now lost Coleman.

Skelton hasn't bridged the gap in the Grade 1 races and it sounds like his reputation may be permanently damaged. Harry isn't reliable enough on the big day either.

I don't have a clue what to make of Fergal. They have had an absolute howler with Imperial Alcazar at the last two festivals. I have no idea how you conspire to make the same mistake twice.

The Pipe's seem to lose their best established horses or emerging prospects every year, which is rotten luck. Adagio, Make Me a Believer, Night Edition Israel Champ, Warthog etc have all passed away or disappeared.

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Bonjers said:
No disagreement there. He's top class. I'm surprised it has taken as long as it has for so many good horses to land his way. If I had a horse, it would be going under his care.

Olly Murphy has been bitterly disappointing over here. The money poured into that yard 2/3 years back was astronomical and they've gone backwards rapidly. He basically admitted today he's unable to pick the right races for his horses and he's now lost Coleman.

Skelton hasn't bridged the gap in the Grade 1 races and it sounds like his reputation may be permanently damaged. Harry isn't reliable enough on the big day either.

I don't have a clue what to make of Fergal. They have had an absolute howler with Imperial Alcazar at the last two festivals. I have no idea how you conspire to make the same mistake twice.

The Pipe's seem to lose their best established horses or emerging prospects every year, which is rotten luck. Adagio, Make Me a Believer, Night Edition Israel Champ, Warthog etc have all passed away or disappeared.

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Good post this.

Olly Murphy and Pipe are the two I really had noted from the UK who had the most opportunities but have failed.

I know grassy is a huge Alan King fan to boot
 
Interesting conundrum - does the trainer make the horse, or does the horse make the trainer.
 
granger said:
I know grassy is a huge Alan King fan to boot
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Blatant trolling this early in the season is just bad manners.

FWIW, I don’t see Olly Murphy “losing” Aidan Coleman, as much of a loss at all. One of the most over-hyped jockeys of the last several years, imo. Mind you, you could say the same about Murphy, when it comes to trainers.
 
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