US Presidential election 2016
- Thread starter Warbler
- Start date
Folk might find this little piece semi interesting given the plethora of polling organisations flying around America and some of the alarming findings they generate
Basically Nate Silver has 'credit rated' them based on historic accuracy and methodology
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/
There are a few polls for instance that show a massive tightening of the South Carolina GOP primary, whilst others conducted at the same time show Trump enjoying comfortable doubel figure leads
It seeems that Trump has suffered a bit of erosion in his support post SC debate, but at the moment at least, this looks manageable. A little bit of me thinks he could be looking further down the track and softening some of his rhetoric ahead of the winner takes all states in the north that start coming about mid March. By then he could be facing Rubio as his only principal challenge. Attacking Bush and the Iraq record in South Carolina of all places, looked counter intuitive, and he might have lost about 5% in the state for doing so. He seemed to enjoy a national bounce off the back of it though, and this was certainly the view I think I'd observed across the vox pop of social media. Has he calculated that losing 5% of the South Carolina vote is a price worth paying if he can add 2-3% in the northern states
Basically Nate Silver has 'credit rated' them based on historic accuracy and methodology
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/
There are a few polls for instance that show a massive tightening of the South Carolina GOP primary, whilst others conducted at the same time show Trump enjoying comfortable doubel figure leads
It seeems that Trump has suffered a bit of erosion in his support post SC debate, but at the moment at least, this looks manageable. A little bit of me thinks he could be looking further down the track and softening some of his rhetoric ahead of the winner takes all states in the north that start coming about mid March. By then he could be facing Rubio as his only principal challenge. Attacking Bush and the Iraq record in South Carolina of all places, looked counter intuitive, and he might have lost about 5% in the state for doing so. He seemed to enjoy a national bounce off the back of it though, and this was certainly the view I think I'd observed across the vox pop of social media. Has he calculated that losing 5% of the South Carolina vote is a price worth paying if he can add 2-3% in the northern states
icebreaker
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First results coming from Nevada suggest Clinton leading Bernie by a very small margin (51% to 49%), but probably enough to win as the early results are from districts that would favour Bern as against strong Clinton areas that count more slowly.
Damn.
Damn.
icebreaker
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Yeah, CNN says that exit polls indicate that 73% of SoCar Republicans identify themselves as self-professed evangelicals. Extraordinary. (Up from 65% in 2012).
Cruz is consistently beating the pollsters predictions ............. did so spectacularly in Iowa and to a lesser extent in NH.
His on-the-ground organisation is outstanding, isn't it! 12,000 volunteers canvassing and door-knocking around the state over the past week, and the committed support of over 500 pastors.
icebreaker
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:lol:
This is a huge win for the Donald and by an impressive margin ................. in an army State, a State with a majority evangelical electorate. It really was a dream ground for Cruz, yet Trump takes it handsomely.
I think there's no stopping the Donald now, unless Cruz were to drop out thereby consolidating the non-Trump vote around Rubio. But that's not going to happen anytime soon, I reckon.
This is a huge win for the Donald and by an impressive margin ................. in an army State, a State with a majority evangelical electorate. It really was a dream ground for Cruz, yet Trump takes it handsomely.
I think there's no stopping the Donald now, unless Cruz were to drop out thereby consolidating the non-Trump vote around Rubio. But that's not going to happen anytime soon, I reckon.
Cruz doesn't quite get second either. For him (thank the lord) this is the death knell as the nominee. He was comfortably beaten in New Hampshire and you just don't see how a tea party Texan with a direct line to God is going to get traction in the less evangelical winner takes all states of the north. He becomes a problem for Trump though
So Jebby the elephant packs his trunk and said goodbye to the circus,
off he went with a trumpty trump, trump, trump, trump
Where does that leave us? Well in the first case Rubio is clearly going to emerge as the establishment candidate. The Republicans are ordering in the last chance saloon now. No Republican has ever come back to climb this kind of hill, but then he can probably count on California coming down the track, and its equally fair to say they probably haven't seen a campaign like this either.
If this were Europe, it would be relatively straight forward to understand. We tend to operate the traditional right / left linear scale of allegiance. America has invented this model called the 5 ring circus which does better represent how their voting preferences transfer.
If a moderate (and I use the word loosely in the American way) as there is little that we would recognise as moderate about Kasich, or Rubio, but if a moderate were to drop out of the race, then we would expect their vote to transfer to the next nearest moderate. Similarly, if a fascist candidate dropped, we'd expect the nearest fascist to be the alternative choice. Political philosophy is probably less decisive in directing traffic in America however, as opposed to the cult of the candidate. The other thing to note is that the fascist tendancy exhibits two distinct strains. On the one hand we have Trump's nationalist fascism that we've seen before in Europe and are comapratively familiar with. On the other hand we have Ted Cruz's theological fascism, which is a percuiliarly American invention, and perhaps sits more closely to certain countries in the middle east. It's certainly without paralell in the western democracies of the world anyway. It's by no means guaranteed that the two will naturally feed each other.
Now the anti Trump brigade have pinned their hopes on the idea that an anybody but Trump candidate would emerge, and that this person (presumably Rubio) will hoover up the remnants. Sadly for them however, it doesn't work like that
To illustrate this, look at the USA Today poll of Bush supporters asked about their second preference (from an unrelaibly small sample)
Kasich = 35%
Rubio = 25%
Cruz = 15%
Trump = 15%
Undecideds 10%
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/20/where-do-jeb-bush-and-ben-carson-votes-go/
Kasich didn't campaign to any great extent in SC, dividing his time equally between there an Michigan. Similarly, he's taking a pass on Nevada too. It's a clear indication that his strategy is going through to at least Super Tuesday before he drops out at the earliest. You also suspect he's gambling on Rubio not having broken through by the time the states start to swing north and perhaps give him a better chance
So remarkable as it might seem, Rubio might only be picking up a ratio of no more than 2:1 off Bush against Trump, and even then, he's only doing so from a quarter of the votes up for grabs. It's not enough to overhaul the Donald. He needs Kasich to drop too, and to do so in good time to make up the shortfall. So in theory Bush is only going to serve about 2% to Rubio and 1% to Trump from a base of about 8%. It ain't enough to materially start affecting the outcome
The key bloc going forward therefore will be Cruz. At the moment he ain't going nowhere. How will his vote split?
If we follow the European linear left/ right model there'd be grounds for thinking he could actually serve votes to Trump, but this is too simplistic.
Trump did actually get fractionally more evangelicals than Cruz in SC, so there is evidence that they're prepared to overlook his wobbly religious credentials in favour of his nationalist right wing agenda. The southern states tend to be baptist as well though, so perhaps the Pope needn't have cut as much influence there as he could have done in the north. That Rump can survive an onslaught from his holiness though is testimony of something. I doubt Cruz or Rubio could
There will be opportunity for Rubio you feel once Kasich drops out. He looks capable of winning Virginia. I wouldn't describe Cruz as bomb proff in Texas or Oklahoma, but you'd think he should carry both.
The interesting dynamic that might occur later down the road though is whether Cruz's right wing starts to shed votes in favour of Trump to effectively adopt a 'stop Rubio' position.
Another thing I think I've detected in Trump is a softening in some of his positions regarding the potential adoption of more socially moderate positions. I suspect that he's possibly thinking in terms of reaching out to the more hard nosed and less dogmatic Kasich supporters of the winner takes all states in the north. I think he's calaculating that they're nervous about a 1 term Florida senator who counts Jeb as his mentor. If they take the view that Trump is the best bet against Hillary, I wouldn't automatically assume that they'll all transfer en masse to Rubio. Again, even if they do so in a ratio of 2:1, it's likely to be too little, too late
The theoretical maths that a unified establishment candidate could beat Trump still holds, but by the time they get down to this position Trump could be up on about 40% with a fair amount of real estate bagged. The fact that the GOP have even been reduced to this is a salutory testimony in itself considering they were all laughing at him back in July.
It's going to start to get interesting very shortly
So Jebby the elephant packs his trunk and said goodbye to the circus,
off he went with a trumpty trump, trump, trump, trump
Where does that leave us? Well in the first case Rubio is clearly going to emerge as the establishment candidate. The Republicans are ordering in the last chance saloon now. No Republican has ever come back to climb this kind of hill, but then he can probably count on California coming down the track, and its equally fair to say they probably haven't seen a campaign like this either.
If this were Europe, it would be relatively straight forward to understand. We tend to operate the traditional right / left linear scale of allegiance. America has invented this model called the 5 ring circus which does better represent how their voting preferences transfer.
If a moderate (and I use the word loosely in the American way) as there is little that we would recognise as moderate about Kasich, or Rubio, but if a moderate were to drop out of the race, then we would expect their vote to transfer to the next nearest moderate. Similarly, if a fascist candidate dropped, we'd expect the nearest fascist to be the alternative choice. Political philosophy is probably less decisive in directing traffic in America however, as opposed to the cult of the candidate. The other thing to note is that the fascist tendancy exhibits two distinct strains. On the one hand we have Trump's nationalist fascism that we've seen before in Europe and are comapratively familiar with. On the other hand we have Ted Cruz's theological fascism, which is a percuiliarly American invention, and perhaps sits more closely to certain countries in the middle east. It's certainly without paralell in the western democracies of the world anyway. It's by no means guaranteed that the two will naturally feed each other.
Now the anti Trump brigade have pinned their hopes on the idea that an anybody but Trump candidate would emerge, and that this person (presumably Rubio) will hoover up the remnants. Sadly for them however, it doesn't work like that
To illustrate this, look at the USA Today poll of Bush supporters asked about their second preference (from an unrelaibly small sample)
Kasich = 35%
Rubio = 25%
Cruz = 15%
Trump = 15%
Undecideds 10%
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/20/where-do-jeb-bush-and-ben-carson-votes-go/
Kasich didn't campaign to any great extent in SC, dividing his time equally between there an Michigan. Similarly, he's taking a pass on Nevada too. It's a clear indication that his strategy is going through to at least Super Tuesday before he drops out at the earliest. You also suspect he's gambling on Rubio not having broken through by the time the states start to swing north and perhaps give him a better chance
So remarkable as it might seem, Rubio might only be picking up a ratio of no more than 2:1 off Bush against Trump, and even then, he's only doing so from a quarter of the votes up for grabs. It's not enough to overhaul the Donald. He needs Kasich to drop too, and to do so in good time to make up the shortfall. So in theory Bush is only going to serve about 2% to Rubio and 1% to Trump from a base of about 8%. It ain't enough to materially start affecting the outcome
The key bloc going forward therefore will be Cruz. At the moment he ain't going nowhere. How will his vote split?
If we follow the European linear left/ right model there'd be grounds for thinking he could actually serve votes to Trump, but this is too simplistic.
Trump did actually get fractionally more evangelicals than Cruz in SC, so there is evidence that they're prepared to overlook his wobbly religious credentials in favour of his nationalist right wing agenda. The southern states tend to be baptist as well though, so perhaps the Pope needn't have cut as much influence there as he could have done in the north. That Rump can survive an onslaught from his holiness though is testimony of something. I doubt Cruz or Rubio could
There will be opportunity for Rubio you feel once Kasich drops out. He looks capable of winning Virginia. I wouldn't describe Cruz as bomb proff in Texas or Oklahoma, but you'd think he should carry both.
The interesting dynamic that might occur later down the road though is whether Cruz's right wing starts to shed votes in favour of Trump to effectively adopt a 'stop Rubio' position.
Another thing I think I've detected in Trump is a softening in some of his positions regarding the potential adoption of more socially moderate positions. I suspect that he's possibly thinking in terms of reaching out to the more hard nosed and less dogmatic Kasich supporters of the winner takes all states in the north. I think he's calaculating that they're nervous about a 1 term Florida senator who counts Jeb as his mentor. If they take the view that Trump is the best bet against Hillary, I wouldn't automatically assume that they'll all transfer en masse to Rubio. Again, even if they do so in a ratio of 2:1, it's likely to be too little, too late
The theoretical maths that a unified establishment candidate could beat Trump still holds, but by the time they get down to this position Trump could be up on about 40% with a fair amount of real estate bagged. The fact that the GOP have even been reduced to this is a salutory testimony in itself considering they were all laughing at him back in July.
It's going to start to get interesting very shortly
icebreaker
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I don't see it like this.
Surely Trump would want Cruz to stay in the race -- Cruz staying in splits the non-Trump vote, no?
(I won't be able to respond to any reply you may make as going out for some hours. Just in case you thinkz I be rude or anythin').
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SlimChance
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She's closer to the bet of all time at EVS than a lay.
AliGupter
At the Start
The Donald 3/1 to be next President, wow...
I've never said never with him as I spent 3 weeks travelling America last year and I could see exactly why Trump could get in. Every day that passes his chances seem to get better...
I've never said never with him as I spent 3 weeks travelling America last year and I could see exactly why Trump could get in. Every day that passes his chances seem to get better...
It's probably quite difficult to assess. I wouldn't be surprised if there were a state by state dynamic in reality
Certainly there is a strong argument to say that if the majority is embedded why disrupt it?
If you were to use the current national GOP moving average - you'd be right, a combined assault of Kasich, Bush & Rubio wouldn't overhaul Trump. There are other states however where it would. The danger comes when Trump has a majority of say 7, which can be wiped out by a coalition of moderates. The key therefore seems to be when Kasich is forced out, and how long it is before Rubio starts to win and becomes believable.
I've tried playing around with the Super Tuesday delegate predicting tool (not sure I configured it correctly actually as it I think its given me less delegates than are available!), and have given Virginia to Rubio. I've also given him Minnesota (which surprised me - I think I've extrapolated of a rogue poll - this does seem much more like a Trump win instinctively). I've got Cruz hanging on in Texas, but think Trump might get nearer than is imagined. I've given Trump Oklahoma and Cruz Arkansas (all eductaed guess work based on polling data and some wild assumptions!)
The predictor gave a result on March 2nd therefore of
Trump = 318 (11)
Cruz = 193 (3)
Rubio = 150 (2)
It's possible that if Kasich has bombed, he drops at this point, but his strategy is seemingly to make a stand in Michigan on March 8th, and if he carries that, he'll go through to Ohio on March 15th. This could be the date when Trump breaks Rubio though in picking up the 99 delegates that Florida serves.
I believe however there might be an issue emerging about a brokered convention if the Donald fails to get 50% of the delegates, and then its anyone's guess how the GOP might perform. If he can break this though.....
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I still think its worth taking a punt on a decent size Trump majority at a price if we can find a market for it. Sure it's not the result that the data nor logic would point to, but neither is it inconceivable
Hillary isn't a natural campaigner, her strength is much more that of an adminsitrator. Trump by contrast seems to revel in the mud slinging and soundbites of nasty modern politics. I can see his campaign better capturing the zeitgeist and closing the gap on her.
Hillary will be fine in the debates, she'll probably excel in truth, but its pretty rare that they impact the result given how choreographed they are. It tends to be the day to day, drip feed of a narrative that sets the tone
Having said that, you still look at the data, and it all says Trump can't win. Trumps been making a mockery of this though since about August
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SlimChance
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Do you think he can win?
trackside528
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It's just a bizarre race really. Looking at the market (both outright and nomination), I think they are about in line with my thinking right now.
Rubio is still the most logical candidate to get into a 1-on-1 with Trump, Cruz has virtually no path - vast majority of the states that suit him coming up are proportional rather than winner take all - but he will hang in for a while (and I would imagine resort to increasingly nasty underhanded tactics). Kasich will pick up support in the Northern states, but I have a hard time seeing him getting to the nomination.
Warbler, what do you make of Trump as a political tactician - I honestly cannot work him out. I do think there is a large element of strategy behind the bluster, but some of the things he does are just bizarre. To take one example, why did he continuously hound Bush (even in the week before South Carolina), when it was clear he was on the rack, and Trump benefited from him (from a political perspective) staying in as long as possible? It came off more like a personal vendetta than a political strategy.
He is without doubt the most entertaining person that has run for President, and an ability to command basically saturation coverage from the media (totally dishonest, liars etc :lol in a way that I have not seen before.
Rubio is still the most logical candidate to get into a 1-on-1 with Trump, Cruz has virtually no path - vast majority of the states that suit him coming up are proportional rather than winner take all - but he will hang in for a while (and I would imagine resort to increasingly nasty underhanded tactics). Kasich will pick up support in the Northern states, but I have a hard time seeing him getting to the nomination.
Warbler, what do you make of Trump as a political tactician - I honestly cannot work him out. I do think there is a large element of strategy behind the bluster, but some of the things he does are just bizarre. To take one example, why did he continuously hound Bush (even in the week before South Carolina), when it was clear he was on the rack, and Trump benefited from him (from a political perspective) staying in as long as possible? It came off more like a personal vendetta than a political strategy.
He is without doubt the most entertaining person that has run for President, and an ability to command basically saturation coverage from the media (totally dishonest, liars etc :lol
in a way that I have not seen before.I'm not sure he's the tactician or is half as clever as people think he is. He's salesmen. So far as I can see he uses the language to tell people that they all want his product without really telling them what it is, and he sells the aspiration. I'm honestly not so sure that half the time he just isn't shooting from the hip, and basically saying "this is what I reckon, who agrees?". I think people are giving him more credit than he deserves. It's not as if he has a big team of advisors. Most of them are sychophantic servants
I think he genuinely hates Bush and the Bush family, and he wanted to humiliate Jeb and grind him into the dust. Remember the SC debate when he talked about the friends he lost in the WTC. I thought for the first time we saw a genuine flash of sincerity in Trump. He holds Bush responsible and wanted to nail him. He has an extremely unpleasent temper and is a notorious grudge bearer. This clouds his judgement and prevents him thinking strategically. Everything is just one big deal that he has to come out of on top, and that makes him more dangerous then any nationalist tendancies he has. I personally regard Cruz, Carson and Rubio as politically more unhinged. Trumps flaw is in his personality
Another thing I've noted about him is the apparent obsession he has with opinion polls or any sort of approval proxy, and the way he presents these as factual evidence of his argument. I do think he's plugging into a certain zeitgesit though, and I'm equally sure he's onto something with his pursuit of the blue collar democrat vote in the industrial north
I'm reminded a little bit about how he slagged off Scotland and said he wouldn't invest any more money in the socialist **** hole that harbours terrorist symptahisers like Alex Salmond. About 6 weeks later he bought Turnberry for £38M. When he says he thinks he can win in New York and Michigan then, I suspect he's eyeing up Pennyslvania, New Hampshire and Wisconsin
I agree Cruz has no path. He simply isn't going to get traction in the northern winner takes all states. I'm still yet to be convinced that Trump won't be able to bully Rubio off the ball though in a one on one. I suspect kasich stays in the race until Ohio, and might even try and hang in for a brokered convention. Rubio had a fair amount going for him in SC with some high profile endorsements and a popular governor by his side, and still couldn't lay a glove on Trump. He only just beat Cruz. I think with Trump, Cruz, and Carson framing the extreme its easy to overlook just how barmy Rubio is too. This is a man who told the world that the Paris attacks were Gods will!!! The GOP is a complete and utter looney bin
In terms of whether Voldermort can take the White House? I'm not ruling it out certainly.
Just take the 2012 result as your baseline. Obama carried Florida on a personal vote. I'm not sure Hillary will be able to. A lot might depend on whether Kasich will accept a Trump ticket? I'm not sure he will, but if he does, he'll deliver Ohio I reckon. Trump and Kasich will also be better placed to get Pennsylvania than McCain and his clothes horse. Hillary will need to rein her environmental rhetoric right in there. Trump's nationalism only needs to be capable of generating a 3% swing amongst the blue collar democrats to take the state (all things being equal). If he delivers that, he's won on the 2012 college. I wouldn't rule out New Hampshire, Iowa or Wisconsin either. I suspect Virgina will stay Democrat though
The wildcard in all of this though is a terrorist incident. It doesn't even have to be in the US. An attack in Canada or even the UK is seemingly capable of getting the American's frothing based on their outrage post Paris.
Should a terrorist incident occur in the US though, and even worse, one committed by someone who has arrived legally since November 2015, you won't be talking about whether Trump wins, but rather how big his majority will be
This election is sheer theatre. Heads truly are spinnin' (about the truest thing she's ever said). There are some mighty reputations on the line (Nate Silver). It's a clash of the politcial scientists who've been writing Trump off from day 1, against the intuitive readers of nuance. And if I'm going to be honest, I'm far from convinced that the armchair amateur is any less accurate now than the so called paid experts. Many of them have egg all over their faces
Last week Trump called out the Pope (well perhaps the Pope called out Trump in truth). Today he's implicating Saudi Arabia in 9/11 and preparing the ground to arrest George W Bush for treason. This just gets better and better
I think he genuinely hates Bush and the Bush family, and he wanted to humiliate Jeb and grind him into the dust. Remember the SC debate when he talked about the friends he lost in the WTC. I thought for the first time we saw a genuine flash of sincerity in Trump. He holds Bush responsible and wanted to nail him. He has an extremely unpleasent temper and is a notorious grudge bearer. This clouds his judgement and prevents him thinking strategically. Everything is just one big deal that he has to come out of on top, and that makes him more dangerous then any nationalist tendancies he has. I personally regard Cruz, Carson and Rubio as politically more unhinged. Trumps flaw is in his personality
Another thing I've noted about him is the apparent obsession he has with opinion polls or any sort of approval proxy, and the way he presents these as factual evidence of his argument. I do think he's plugging into a certain zeitgesit though, and I'm equally sure he's onto something with his pursuit of the blue collar democrat vote in the industrial north
I'm reminded a little bit about how he slagged off Scotland and said he wouldn't invest any more money in the socialist **** hole that harbours terrorist symptahisers like Alex Salmond. About 6 weeks later he bought Turnberry for £38M. When he says he thinks he can win in New York and Michigan then, I suspect he's eyeing up Pennyslvania, New Hampshire and Wisconsin
I agree Cruz has no path. He simply isn't going to get traction in the northern winner takes all states. I'm still yet to be convinced that Trump won't be able to bully Rubio off the ball though in a one on one. I suspect kasich stays in the race until Ohio, and might even try and hang in for a brokered convention. Rubio had a fair amount going for him in SC with some high profile endorsements and a popular governor by his side, and still couldn't lay a glove on Trump. He only just beat Cruz. I think with Trump, Cruz, and Carson framing the extreme its easy to overlook just how barmy Rubio is too. This is a man who told the world that the Paris attacks were Gods will!!! The GOP is a complete and utter looney bin
In terms of whether Voldermort can take the White House? I'm not ruling it out certainly.
Just take the 2012 result as your baseline. Obama carried Florida on a personal vote. I'm not sure Hillary will be able to. A lot might depend on whether Kasich will accept a Trump ticket? I'm not sure he will, but if he does, he'll deliver Ohio I reckon. Trump and Kasich will also be better placed to get Pennsylvania than McCain and his clothes horse. Hillary will need to rein her environmental rhetoric right in there. Trump's nationalism only needs to be capable of generating a 3% swing amongst the blue collar democrats to take the state (all things being equal). If he delivers that, he's won on the 2012 college. I wouldn't rule out New Hampshire, Iowa or Wisconsin either. I suspect Virgina will stay Democrat though
The wildcard in all of this though is a terrorist incident. It doesn't even have to be in the US. An attack in Canada or even the UK is seemingly capable of getting the American's frothing based on their outrage post Paris.
Should a terrorist incident occur in the US though, and even worse, one committed by someone who has arrived legally since November 2015, you won't be talking about whether Trump wins, but rather how big his majority will be
This election is sheer theatre. Heads truly are spinnin' (about the truest thing she's ever said). There are some mighty reputations on the line (Nate Silver). It's a clash of the politcial scientists who've been writing Trump off from day 1, against the intuitive readers of nuance. And if I'm going to be honest, I'm far from convinced that the armchair amateur is any less accurate now than the so called paid experts. Many of them have egg all over their faces
Last week Trump called out the Pope (well perhaps the Pope called out Trump in truth). Today he's implicating Saudi Arabia in 9/11 and preparing the ground to arrest George W Bush for treason. This just gets better and better
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SlimChance
Guest
This amused me. He was saying the same things about Japan 20 years ago.
http://fusion.net/story/174515/donald-trump-president-oprah-interview/
http://fusion.net/story/174515/donald-trump-president-oprah-interview/
He actually sounds quite warm in that clip.
As you say the message is the same, but today its a lot more angry and snarling
There was a bit at the start which I think people haven't fully latched onto, and outside of fighting ISIS I think he's going to start using US military strength as a foreign currency earner. He's already indicated that the South Koreans and Germans can start paying for US protection
As you say the message is the same, but today its a lot more angry and snarling
There was a bit at the start which I think people haven't fully latched onto, and outside of fighting ISIS I think he's going to start using US military strength as a foreign currency earner. He's already indicated that the South Koreans and Germans can start paying for US protection
The Trump ceiling just hit the 50% mark!
OK, let's qualify that. It's an Emerson poll for Massacheusetts, and the previous one looked decidely rogue too
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/270227-poll-trump-leads-in-massachusetts-democrats-tied
One thing I do think could be happening though is that Trump is finding he has a 'home state(s)'. His brash, patriotic, but not overly religious campaign might really resonate within New England, and the north east seaboard. He's already bagged New Hampshire but it might be worth looking that the sort of states that could be receptive to this message
March 1st
Massacheusetts = 42 (proportional)
Vermont = 16 (proportional 50% WTA)
March 5th
Maine = 23 (proportional 50% WTA)
April 19th
New York = 95 (proportional 50% WTA)
April 26th
Conneticuit = 28 (WTA)
Rhode Island = 19 (Proportional)
June 7th
New Jersey = 51 (WTA)
So there's about 274 delegates here with grounds to believe that Trump is carrying all the states concerned with the only issue to be resolved really being the allocation.
Contrast that with Rubio who in theory has a big advantage as WTA super state senator. The problem is that Floridians hate the absent Rubio. He's currently in third place in his home state (contrast that with Ted Cruz in Texas) who is potentially vulnerable to Trumpmania but is still holding a lead
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ida_republican_presidential_primary-3555.html
California gives Rubio a chance, but Trump could easily be picking up in the region of 110 delegates from his New England stronghold, plus 99 from Rubio's backyard, and that's provided he can't make advances down the coast and start hitting the likes of, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, and even Georgia given he's already won SC and is set fair in FL
OK, let's qualify that. It's an Emerson poll for Massacheusetts, and the previous one looked decidely rogue too
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/270227-poll-trump-leads-in-massachusetts-democrats-tied
One thing I do think could be happening though is that Trump is finding he has a 'home state(s)'. His brash, patriotic, but not overly religious campaign might really resonate within New England, and the north east seaboard. He's already bagged New Hampshire but it might be worth looking that the sort of states that could be receptive to this message
March 1st
Massacheusetts = 42 (proportional)
Vermont = 16 (proportional 50% WTA)
March 5th
Maine = 23 (proportional 50% WTA)
April 19th
New York = 95 (proportional 50% WTA)
April 26th
Conneticuit = 28 (WTA)
Rhode Island = 19 (Proportional)
June 7th
New Jersey = 51 (WTA)
So there's about 274 delegates here with grounds to believe that Trump is carrying all the states concerned with the only issue to be resolved really being the allocation.
Contrast that with Rubio who in theory has a big advantage as WTA super state senator. The problem is that Floridians hate the absent Rubio. He's currently in third place in his home state (contrast that with Ted Cruz in Texas) who is potentially vulnerable to Trumpmania but is still holding a lead
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ida_republican_presidential_primary-3555.html
California gives Rubio a chance, but Trump could easily be picking up in the region of 110 delegates from his New England stronghold, plus 99 from Rubio's backyard, and that's provided he can't make advances down the coast and start hitting the likes of, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, and even Georgia given he's already won SC and is set fair in FL
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trackside528
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- Apr 30, 2006
- Messages
- 5,377
On Trump, Warbler, I broadly agree - or at least am coming round to that angle. Some of the things he says seem entirely off the cuff. On the other hand, some of the things he has said (eg taking on Bush over 9/11 in South Carolina) would be political suicide for 95+% of candidates, which makes me a shade wary of the natural instinct that he is sure to overstep the mark and come unstuck at some point. From a 'horse race' perspective, his campaign team is grossly inexperienced, and his organisation fairly shoddy to date. I couldn't back him in a general for that reason alone.
Clinton feels to me at the opposite extreme - strong organisation and a largely conventional campaign, albeit with a fractious team notoriously prone to infighting. That said, I think she is a poor campaign candidate who seemingly does little to inspire. If she gets nominated - which I am fairly sure she will - I would be giving the election outcome a wide berth (like backing a classy 2yo sprinter in a Guineas at prohibitive, too many doubts for me...) and looking at Senate races where I think there will certainly be value to be had.
What do you reckon to a Rubio/Kasich ticket? Seems appealing, albeit someone like Nikki Haley would be a natural to enter the picture presuming it is Hillary he would be up against.
Clinton feels to me at the opposite extreme - strong organisation and a largely conventional campaign, albeit with a fractious team notoriously prone to infighting. That said, I think she is a poor campaign candidate who seemingly does little to inspire. If she gets nominated - which I am fairly sure she will - I would be giving the election outcome a wide berth (like backing a classy 2yo sprinter in a Guineas at prohibitive, too many doubts for me...) and looking at Senate races where I think there will certainly be value to be had.
What do you reckon to a Rubio/Kasich ticket? Seems appealing, albeit someone like Nikki Haley would be a natural to enter the picture presuming it is Hillary he would be up against.
I think Rubio is very lucky that he's got Cruz, Carson and Trump in the race to make him look comparatively normal. He isn't. He's another tea party refugee with a strong line on God. I think he's lightweight. What do Floridans know about him that means he's struggling to carry his home state! I think Trump could muller him one on one.
I don't think Haley is on any ticket. She only just Rubio over the line for second against flamin' Cruz. Rubio will have to consider SC bagged and tagged. I'm not even convinced it would be in her interests to take the gig anyway.
Rubio needs OH, and that more or less guarantees Kasich first refusal. He's going to have to back himself to win FL, and I would think then it might be a case of Virginia and Iowa offering him his best shots
I think the GOP VP market is interesting though, for despite Trump being favourite for the nomination, the book has been drawn up to suggest otherwise. Just about everyone in it is either unacceptable to Trump, or he's unacceptable to them
He's said he wants someone with congressional experience, which makes sense, but he'll have also run the numbers and can see that someone like Kasich is critical. I'm just not convinced Kasich would work for him. One of the first things Trump will do is launch a military campaign against ISIS (and send Mexico the bill). Perhaps a mad general like William McCrystal. Joe Scarborough has been mooted. How does Vice President Bill O'Rielly sound? Phil Mickelson!
I see Cruz has had to sack Tyler incidentally, (coming after rumours of a secret meeting between Cruz and Rubio)
I don't think Haley is on any ticket. She only just Rubio over the line for second against flamin' Cruz. Rubio will have to consider SC bagged and tagged. I'm not even convinced it would be in her interests to take the gig anyway.
Rubio needs OH, and that more or less guarantees Kasich first refusal. He's going to have to back himself to win FL, and I would think then it might be a case of Virginia and Iowa offering him his best shots
I think the GOP VP market is interesting though, for despite Trump being favourite for the nomination, the book has been drawn up to suggest otherwise. Just about everyone in it is either unacceptable to Trump, or he's unacceptable to them
He's said he wants someone with congressional experience, which makes sense, but he'll have also run the numbers and can see that someone like Kasich is critical. I'm just not convinced Kasich would work for him. One of the first things Trump will do is launch a military campaign against ISIS (and send Mexico the bill). Perhaps a mad general like William McCrystal. Joe Scarborough has been mooted. How does Vice President Bill O'Rielly sound? Phil Mickelson!
I see Cruz has had to sack Tyler incidentally, (coming after rumours of a secret meeting between Cruz and Rubio)
So the Trump juggernaut continues. The 35% ceiling is lifted to 45% and Cruz and Rubio can't even muster enough votes between them to overhaul the Donald
Thursday's debate could be a touchstone. It will be interesting to see if they double team him, as Trump's rarely been put under any pressure on detail. Cruz is the best debater left, and he did say in Nevada that Super Tuesday would be crucial to his campaign. I suspect he's going to go in all guns blazing and see if that carries through to the up coming primaries. If doesn't, will he drop out? He doesn't have a track record of acquiesence (to put it mildly) and he could well be ahead of Rubio on March 2nd anyway. Why should he? He might have had two narrow seconds to Rubio, but must be calculating that if Carson wasn't still involved he'd have beaten Marco
Cruz has to be banking on Texas, which leaves Rubio with what exactly?
Virginia looks like his only hope of carrying a state. When pushed on the subject of when he thinks he'll first win, he's nominated Florida on the 15th. Leaving aside the fact that Trump is polling well in the sunshine state, this means he's adopting a strategy based around winning his first vote half way through the process. Can he seriously expect to win under this scenario? Trump still has New York to off set that (potentially if carrying 50%)
A bit of me wonders whether Trump isn't better off allowing Cruz to take Texas now in order to keep him in the race. Quite where Cruz's voters would go has been a talking point. It's been polled a few times to no definitive conclusion, but I've come round to the idea of not wanting to change anything so long as you're running the table. In any event, i don't see how Cruz builds after the southern states have been played
Kasich has pretty well confirmed his participation up until Ohio
You might enjoy this guy decoding Trump
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_aFo_BV-UzI
The bit where he notes that Trump always seems to have friends from the community that he's insulting who agree with him made me laugh. I've noticed this before with Trump, and I suspect its just one big lie. I'd be surprised if any of them could ever get through to him most of the time! The other thing I've noted before is the way he answers questions by weaving evidence from approval proxy indicators into them, be they opinion polls, sales figures, profit & loss accounts, viewers, newspaper circulation s etc
Heads are spinnin'
Thursday's debate could be a touchstone. It will be interesting to see if they double team him, as Trump's rarely been put under any pressure on detail. Cruz is the best debater left, and he did say in Nevada that Super Tuesday would be crucial to his campaign. I suspect he's going to go in all guns blazing and see if that carries through to the up coming primaries. If doesn't, will he drop out? He doesn't have a track record of acquiesence (to put it mildly) and he could well be ahead of Rubio on March 2nd anyway. Why should he? He might have had two narrow seconds to Rubio, but must be calculating that if Carson wasn't still involved he'd have beaten Marco
Cruz has to be banking on Texas, which leaves Rubio with what exactly?
Virginia looks like his only hope of carrying a state. When pushed on the subject of when he thinks he'll first win, he's nominated Florida on the 15th. Leaving aside the fact that Trump is polling well in the sunshine state, this means he's adopting a strategy based around winning his first vote half way through the process. Can he seriously expect to win under this scenario? Trump still has New York to off set that (potentially if carrying 50%)
A bit of me wonders whether Trump isn't better off allowing Cruz to take Texas now in order to keep him in the race. Quite where Cruz's voters would go has been a talking point. It's been polled a few times to no definitive conclusion, but I've come round to the idea of not wanting to change anything so long as you're running the table. In any event, i don't see how Cruz builds after the southern states have been played
Kasich has pretty well confirmed his participation up until Ohio
You might enjoy this guy decoding Trump
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_aFo_BV-UzI
The bit where he notes that Trump always seems to have friends from the community that he's insulting who agree with him made me laugh. I've noticed this before with Trump, and I suspect its just one big lie. I'd be surprised if any of them could ever get through to him most of the time! The other thing I've noted before is the way he answers questions by weaving evidence from approval proxy indicators into them, be they opinion polls, sales figures, profit & loss accounts, viewers, newspaper circulation s etc
Heads are spinnin'
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A disection of the demographic suggests that Trump is indeed breaking out of his straight jacket
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...eiling-may-be-wrong/56cc817a981b92a22d383ec1/
His base is broadening, and critically, the area I still have a hunch he'll make inroads on is yet to be tested, the blue collar democrat
He can still generate revulsion amongst 90% of this group, but if he reaches 10% of them who are prepared to convert their sympathy into a voting switch, he's winning the White House
A poll out tonight incidentally has him just one point behind Cruz in Texas now. I still don't see him winning the Lone Star state, but I'm certainly not confident enough to say he won't. If he has a good debate tomorrow, he probably can, and with it, one suspects knock Cruz out the race. If the tea party shock jocks are telling Cruz to tone down his God stuff
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...eiling-may-be-wrong/56cc817a981b92a22d383ec1/
His base is broadening, and critically, the area I still have a hunch he'll make inroads on is yet to be tested, the blue collar democrat
He can still generate revulsion amongst 90% of this group, but if he reaches 10% of them who are prepared to convert their sympathy into a voting switch, he's winning the White House
A poll out tonight incidentally has him just one point behind Cruz in Texas now. I still don't see him winning the Lone Star state, but I'm certainly not confident enough to say he won't. If he has a good debate tomorrow, he probably can, and with it, one suspects knock Cruz out the race. If the tea party shock jocks are telling Cruz to tone down his God stuff
S
SlimChance
Guest
I thought this was an excellent article with some colourful quotes.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-america-made-donald-trump-unstoppable-20160224?page=9
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-america-made-donald-trump-unstoppable-20160224?page=9
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Frightening - American politics are unbelievable.