US Presidential election 2016

And on the Dem side, Bernie wins Oklahoma in a close fight.
It's been a good night for Clinton, but the wizened old socialist is still in there. :)
 
Cruz looks like the fly in the ointment going forward

If Rubio can't break 20% in Texas he draws no delegates and they're shared proportionately between Cruz and Trump. In terms of the Trump and Rubio race, this is as a good as a bonus state win for Trump. It's basically a win in everything but name. Cruz is getting panned in the N/E and after his New York values comment he can pretty abandon any hope there later in the campaign

I suspect Trump will just about edge Kasich in Vermont

I've seen nothing from Minnesota, but if Rubio doesn't land there, then he's had the worst of the lot. He's doing better in Arkansas than I thought he would mind you. I figured that with their voting history they'd line up for Cruz, but I don't think there's a great deal in this one. I'm not sure Rubio isn't going to get something, but if he draws a blank on super Tuesday can really still be viable for the nomination?
 
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The Hilary campaign must have tested the phrase "breaking down barriers". I started to wonder half way through the speech if she was standing for election in the people's republic of China...
 
SlimChance said:
The Hilary campaign must have tested the phrase "breaking down barriers". I started to wonder half way through the speech if she was standing for election in the people's republic of China...
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Hypocritical, evil bitch.
Her, of all people, to be talking about curbing the selfishness and greed of big business. Talking about honesty and transparency in government. #jesuschristalmighty.


Her speech was lifted line-and-paragraph out of the Bernie Sanders handbook.
 
She's never been a great orator, neither is she a particularly good campaigner. She'll do well in debates, but they're so choreographed with such strong rules of engagement its difficult to really get a tear up going. Her strength is the detail of adiminstration and its difficult to win elections on that, especially elections that last 6 months. She's vulnerable, but to whom?

If Rubio doesn't win one of Minnesota or Arkansas he's probably no longer viable. He's dangerously close to dipping below 20% in quite a few states too.

If it comes down to Trump versus Cruz heading into the north, then Trump will win that.
 
LOL, watching the Donald's speech from Florida just now, he declares war on three countries -- Mexico, China, and ................. Ireland. :D
Yep, the Irish are stealing American jobs (he specifically referenced Pfizer), and he's "gonna stop that".
Anybody else hear him saying that?
 
Trump's speech is pretty spectacular. Who else would take live questions, he's killing it.
 
icebreaker said:
LOL, watching the Donald's speech from Florida just now, he declares war on three countries -- Mexico, China, and ................. Ireland. :D
Yep, the Irish are stealing American jobs (he specifically referenced Pfizer), and he's "gonna stop that".
Anybody else hear him saying that?
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Yes. He said it was unbelievable that a company like that was in Ireland. I don't remember the exact quote.
 
SlimChance said:
Trump's speech is pretty spectacular. Who else would take live questions, he's killing it.
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Indeed, it was an excellent speech. It was magisterial and distinguished, presidential even if I dare say it. I didn't think the man had it in him. And then the polished way he dealt with the questions afterwards showed a level of ability and skill you would want in a president. I can see how he appeals to the America voter.(And as you say, would Hilary's handlers expose her to hostile Press questions on such a night)?
Another thing that struck me was the contrast in the choreography of his speech to that of Clinton's. He had alongside him only Chris Christie at the podium; Hilary had a load of young, racially-diverse supporters/handclappers carefully lined up in rows behind her. ( I think I saw only one white caucasian among the lot of them -- it was mindful of those Coca Cola adverts in the 80's of "I'ld like to buy the world a Coke"). Blatantly pre-arranged and organised. Donald's way, on the other hand, oozed an air of stately and dignified decorum appropriate to high political office.
 
Did you see Ted Cruz's speech though! It looked like it was delivered from a strip club, by some low grade Bond villian (which of course he is)

Its looking like Rubio has missed the 20% threshold in Alabama, Texas and Vermont.

Trump did get clobbered in Minnesota and has of course already lost Iowa. It's the only real sign of weakness he's got at the moment in the mid west, which does lead you to think he'll struggle in Wisconsin too in a general election

Also (and its gone unreported) Trump seemed to be signalling how he was going to solve the migrant crisis. He's going to turn a whole swathe of Syria into a giant application centre and make the arab states pay for it. Making your suppliers pay for your corporate risk has become a trend in American business. After the first property crash he suffered he learned not to gamble his own money again and gambles bank money now. It'll become a theme

1: Mexico pays for America's wall
2: South Korea and can Europe pay for American military protection
3: Now the Gulf states can pay for American immigration (which isn't where the problem lies incidentally, America gets a smidge of what's coming to Europe). He's already said that the US tax payer is funding Europes social welfare programmes (because Europe doesn't spend 5% of its GDP on handing out replenishment contracts to the American defence industry)

In other news, today's batshit crazy idea from the GOP is to set up an anti-Trump superPAC. Yep, that's right, they've decided to ask their own donors to establish and fund an unregulated attack mechanism to aim at Trump, and not to be out done, Erik Erickson of 'Red State' is now talking about asetting up a rival party called the Constitution Party to oppose Trump. I suspect that when they see the new people Trump's bringing into the party, and the recah he's getting into traditional blue collar Democrats some of this message might water down a bit. Politicians are opportunists and if they see a way to beat Hillary they might start thinking hang on a minute, Trump isn't all bad you know

I thought taking questions from the press at his victory speech was a stroke of genius actually, especially for someone who so frequently seems to lose his train of thought and doesn't have a command of the detail. It came through last night with some of his claims actually, but no one is allowed to stick their hand up and say "that's actually wrong"
 
You are a form reader

Rubio = 3, 5, 2, 2, - 3, 3, 3, 3, 2, 1, 3, 3, 3, 3, 2
Trump = 2, 1, 1, 1 - 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 3, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1

Rubio is Third Intention

Basically he's lost to Cruz in ultra conservative areas, and lost three times to Kasich now in the north east. 38 delegates in Minnesota with no threshold cut off. As the attention switches to the north expect Cruz to lose ground. I think we've seen peak Ted last night, and this is as good as it gets for him
 
Warbler said:
Did you see Ted Cruz's speech though! It looked like it was delivered from a strip club,
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Aye, the name of the location where he made his speech -- The Redneck Country Club, Stafford, Texas, -- kinda says it all. :D
(Visions of a pole-dancing, robot-rodeo joint or dive bar come into meh mind).
 
icebreaker said:
But only a few months ago t would have been incredible if anyone had forecast that Trump would carry these Southern States.
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I think the picture that's emerging is more of an east west dynamic with Trump losing support as he heads into the country. I suspect he'll end up with the entire Atlantic coast at this rate. Places like Illinois, Ohio and Missouri become important. You have to suspect that New York and New Jersey are in the bag. Cruz might get some traction in places like Indiana, Kansas, New Mexico etc, and Rubio if he can't take Florida is clinging to California, Washington and Oregon and a brokered convention.

I don't think this is the knock out blow Trump was looking for by a long way, but its probably a tactical victory given that Cruz has emerged as the immediate threat and not Rubio, who himself has drawn a blank in three states and won't be counting any delegates from them
 
Looks like they've called Alaska for Cruz

So that mad banshee can't even deliver Alaska for him. Looks like the end of her anyway. Trump doesn't like losers, and she was a liability to McCain, and will become one for him. "Sarah you're fired"
 
I think there might be a bit of an angle here

Far from framing this as a north/ south thing, Trump seems to be establishing an east / west dynamic with his support diluting as he moves across the union. I suspect he could sweep the Atlantic coast, but all of a sudden the mid west doesn't look quite so solid


Trump is also striking at 82% in primaries, yet 25% in caucuses. It possibly points to his ground game being wobbly, or at leasy vulnerable to the better organised Cruz. How will he get on in a few days in Kansas and Kentucky? Even the Maine caucus might suddenly be more of an effort for him, its not as if he romped Vermont. I suspect he has Louisiana though based on places like Georgia and Alabama, then again, the state does have Texan influences that appear to have crossed into Oklahoma

Actually .... I'm now thinking peak Cruz comes in a few days time
 
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Just looking at some of the turnouts on the Republican vote. Some of them are stagegering, although Vermont dropped slightly. The turnout in Virginia compared to 2012 is remarkable. Have they moved from a caucus to a primary? Or were they shovelled out the back end in 2012 but been given a new slot in the calender this time?

Anyway

2012 = 5,732,649
2016 = 9,784,686

For whatever reason, the Republicans have added 4,052, 037 to their participation (41%). Must be the Rubio effect!!!

OK, people will accept its the Trump effect, but are these new voters to the Republican cause? If they are Hillary Clinton is in trouble. The chances are however is that a majority of these are Republican voters who've joined the process upstream of where they normally get involved
 
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Warbler said:
Just looking at some of the turnouts on the Republican vote. The turnout in Virginia compared to 2012 is remarkable.
Anyway

2012 = 5,732,649
2016 = 9,784,686

For whatever reason, the Republicans have added 4,052, 037 to their participation (41%).
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No way can that 2016 figure be correct, mate.
The Total population of the State is just 8 million (from the 2010 census -- the last official census) with an annual growth rate of 1%
 
It's the victim of a misleading edit.

The figures are overall turnout for the 15 states who've so far participated. The observation about Virginia was supposed to be in isolation, albeit it certainly doesn't read that way

265,570 in 2012
1.025,779 in 2016

I suspect the figure reported for Virginia is wrong as its 4 times higher and way out of kilter with anything else. Texas is about double, but possibly down to having a local candidate. Minnesota is also double. Arkansas is about 2.5 times more. Massachusetts is another which is nearly double
 
I tell you what, these next four states look interesting on Saturday. There's bugger all polling done on them, and three are caucuses. There's a clear late decider dynamic in play which seems to go against Trump, and definite evidence of a concerted campaign now being mounted across all media channels that is starting to take some effect. I think there has to be a chance he'll be marked up at a shade odds on in them though, and I'm not sure he is

I'm also given to understand that in order to be considered for a brokered convention a candidate needs to have carried at least 8 states under rule 40(b) of the RNC 2016. At the moment Rubio has someway to go, although it looks possible that Cruz could get there. Having said that, Cruz is even more unelectable than Trump, and nearly as unpalatable to the GOP. It's going to cause a shite storm if they invoke a brokered convention anyway and rob Trump, but to do so for Cruz's benefit? The damage to the party is too great surely? The GOP is going into meltdown. They've got until Ohio to sort it out, and even that might be too late
 
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Reading about the place in the newspaper today would not encourage any right-thinking person to visit it.

"The bar was founded by controversial radio host Michael Berry, who once compared black teenagers to 'jungle animals' and has reportedly been friends with Cruz for two decades.
"Berry has come under fire in the past for derogatory comments about black people.
He has mocked black victims of gun violence in Chicago and once said 'the dirty little secret is black people don't believe that black lives matter'."
"The club has a full-size replica of the Dukes of Hazzard's General Lee, including its Confederate flag emblazoned across the roof, Media Matters reported.
Berry has previously said the flag represents the 'heritage of the state'.
He has also claimed that most white people 'would like to get as far from black people as they possibly could and never have to see another black person'."

A really bad choice of venue by Cruz. He could of course claim that he didn't know the "style" of the place, but that would call into question his capability to be a leader.
If Trump had used this Redneck joint to hold his victory meeting, I can imagine the howls of denunciation from the Press, the television media and Megyn Ryan.
 
icebreaker said:
LOL, watching the Donald's speech from Florida just now, he declares war on three countries -- Mexico, China, and ................. Ireland. :D
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That's nothing Ted Cruz is sending deportation squads out to round up the Irish

"Ted Cruz moved to a more aggressive deportation policy in an interview on Monday night, saying he would look for and deport undocumentedl immigrants using Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents, marking a change from a January interview with CNN.

Appearing on "The O'Reilly Factor" on Fox News, Cruz was repeatedly pressed on the specifics of his deportation plans by host Bill O'Reilly, who asked Cruz, "Would you go look for them, though? As (Donald) Trump would look for them to get them out, would you do that if you were president?"
"Bill, of course you would, that's what ICE exists for," Cruz said. "We have law enforcement that looks for people who are violating the laws, that apprehends them and deports them."
O'Reilly offered a hypothetical example of an immigrant from Ireland with "a couple of kids and he's settled into Long Island."
"And you, President Cruz, are going to send the feds to his house, take him out, and put him on a plane back to Ireland?" O'Reilly asked.
"You better believe it," Cruz said."
 
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I considered it, but decided it was unlikely.

I think it hinges on whether the decision is based on someone who can help assemble the college, or someone who can help deliver a governmental programme. I don't really see what Carson offers. He's even more inexperienced than Trump. He isn't going to pull black voters over. The combination of Hillary with an Obama endorsement has sealed that deal. He doesn't have a political base. Katich can probably deliver someone Ohio which is a big prize, and won't be without appeal in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It would be a no contest betweent he two in terms of who you'd want

I think there's scope in the Republican VP market given that the current book is made up almost entirely of people who'd refuse to work with Trump, or people whom he wouldn't consider. He has said he wants someone who knows how to play congress, but I suspect he's a little bit more 'bottom line' focused, which means he needs someone who can carry states for him first.

Despite Christie following him around like an attack dog at the moment, I think the general feeling is that he's lined up for Attorney General. In any event, he's a state Governor rather than a DC mandarin, and New Jersey is pretty solid Democrat

I've heard names like Joe Scarborough mentioned if you fancied trying to sneak a price, but I think he might have burned a bridge (or a cross) in the last few days.

A looney general is never a bad bet with Trump you feel!

There is a growing rumour that Mitt Romney has a role to play yet. He's supposedly making a major announcement tomorrow. Somewhat to my surprise at least Romney seems to have seen his reputation grow since his defeat. Clearly Romney isn't a Trump supporter, so you're backing a Trump defeat if taking a punt on Romney, but there might be a trade in there somewhere. If Romney offered himself to a Katich or Rubio ticket it would certainly inject new life into the campaign.

Lets be honest, the way this circus has been going, who'd be shocked if Trump nominated Ted Bishop!!! or even Donald Junior!!!

I'd be curiousto investigate Jeff Sessions at a price. He offers the experience to balance the ticket, and he has impecable conservative credentials that would fit Trump's narrative last night of being a unifier. Trump knows he's going to have to start tacking centre soon, (its already started) so he's going also need someone out there on the right to keep the conservatives and rabid happy. Don't know enough about Sessions own personal circumstances or ambition though, there might be a very good reason why he'd be a complete N/R.

I do like the irony of Trump running a brain surgeon though :lol:

Tomorrows debate should be fun anyway
 
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