"Value" - what the hell is it?

krizon

krizon

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I'm mystified! :confused: Various commentators/pundits keep referring to this thing called "value". Everyone is always searching for it, it seems. Do they ever find it? And if they do, just what is it? To hear some people talk, it's finding the best price on the rails, others it's getting in well ahead of the posted SPs. I give up. You - yes, you! - you're the expert. Please explain to a simpleton!
 
krizon said:
I'm mystified! :confused: Various commentators/pundits keep referring to this thing called "value". Everyone is always searching for it, it seems. Do they ever find it? And if they do, just what is it? To hear some people talk, it's finding the best price on the rails, others it's getting in well ahead of the posted SPs. I give up. You - yes, you! - you're the expert. Please explain to a simpleton!
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It's a load of bollocks and the most over used phrase in the industry. Let me give you a quick example why. Here is formula people use to judge value:

(Price you have taken of x) - (SP of x) = y

where
X = selection
y= value obtained

Now consider this. I'm a bookmaker betting on the toss of a coin with 100 punters. I'm betting:

5/6 Heads
5/6 Tails

88 people back Head
12 people back tails

SP:
Heads 8/15
Tails 11/8

Do the 5/6 Heads backers have the value?

No, the age old market forces of supply and demand dictate much of the market. Is the person who gets the value the first man in? Therefore can a punter betting at the off ever obtain 'value'? Counter that with examples of punters backing a 'dead' one in the morning before the market correctly predicts the way the horse will run. Value is a term far over used and far too sought in betting. People need to focus on backing winners these days in my humble opinion.
 
Ah, like a horse at 5/1 instead of 2/1 or like that? Thanks, Del - I hear presenters saying "he looks the value horse" and "that looks the value bet" and I wondered what it actually meant, because they never explain! So a search for value is simply a punter trying to find a horse at bigger odds than he thinks it should be.

Fantastic, this forum. There is nothing that can't be answered by someone!

Oops - answer crossed with Gearoid's. Now I'm back even further than 'what the hell is it'?! Cheers, Gears, I'll be able to answer 'a load of bollocks' in future to anyone who asks me!
 
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krizon said:
Ah, like a horse at 5/1 instead of 2/1 or like that? Thanks, Del - I hear presenters saying "he looks the value horse" and "that looks the value bet" and I wondered what it actually meant, because they never explain! So a search for value is simply a punter trying to find a horse at bigger odds than he thinks it should be.

Fantastic, this forum. There is nothing that can't be answered by someone!
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Unlike most women I've encountered, you're easily satisfied.
 
I put my own price on a horse, if I think it will be say evens and I can get 6/4 that's value. I then place my bet, if it is 4/6 I don't.
 
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Gearoid said:
No, the age old market forces of supply and demand dictate much of the market. Is the person who gets the value the first man in? Therefore can a punter betting at the off ever obtain 'value'?
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Media hype and previews and the views of connections and pundits skew the market somewhat as well. It isn't efficient a lot of the time and so I would say that lack of efficiency means it is possible to obtain value near the off.
 
Euronymous said:
Media hype and previews and the views of connections and pundits skew the market somewhat as well. It isn't efficient a lot of the time and so I would say that lack of efficiency means it is possible to obtain value near the off.
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And the rest. I sometimes know why a market moves in a certain direction. It often means the working man's selection (i.e the form pick) goes off at a very fair price. They claim it's a perfect market but it's not quite, it's some where in the middle. The only thing I want to know from the market is whether my horse is dead or not,
 
Gearoid said:
Here is formula people use to judge value:

(Price you have taken of x) - (SP of x) = y
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As far as I am concerned, the SP has relatively little to do with what I would personally regard as 'value'. Obviously if you believe that the market in the age of exchanges has become seriously efficient (think this is something Dave Nevison has argued?) you might have a differing viewpoint/

In normal circumstances the formula I would employ (not that I necessarily employ a formula) would be:

(Price you have taken about x) - (Price you believe x should be) = y

It's undoubtedly an elusive concept to get a hold of (and one that I struggle with any time that I attempt to punt seriously for a sustained period).

I have heard people proclaiming an 11/2 shot 'value' on the basis that he should be 9/2. I find it hard to believe anybody could be that good in spotting value within a 10 or 15% margin. An awful lot of it comes down to intuition for me personally, though surely the only 'real' way of knowing whether you are getting value is to punt horses that are in your view over-priced over a reasonable period of time and see how you do.
 
trackside528 said:
you are getting value is to punt horses that are in your view over-priced over a reasonable period of time and see how you do.
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But that suggests making gambling pay which is not the same thing as obtaining value. The best judges of value might be the worst punters in the world. Value is just far too over used, in fact it's a tiring phrase that detracts from a person's opinion rather than adding to it. I do like the current in running joke on the forum that if you get the 'value' you are the moral winner. It sums up the whole thing. I want to back winners, nothing else.


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Can I just say it's nice to see Teabag on here - when are you gracing Lingfield with your 10-year appearance, dearest? I won't recognise you if you show up again!
 
The only price that has made me sit up in the last 6 months was Big Bucks at 11/8 for Stayers Hurdle.
Have the exhanges and the efficient markets they bring made value almost a redundant concept.
 
Gearoid said:
But that suggests making gambling pay which is not the same thing as obtaining value. The best judges of value might be the worst punters in the world. Value is just far too over used, in fact it's a tiring phrase that detracts from a person's opinion rather than adding to it. I do like the current in running joke on the forum that if you get the 'value' you are the moral winner. It sums up the whole thing. I want to back winners, nothing else.


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Surely there is no way to make punting pay in the long run apart from backing horses that are bigger prices than they should be more often than the other way around?

I don't buy into this notion that just because a horse's SP is shorter than the price you have backed it at that you have therefore automatically gotten the 'value'.
 
The word value gets touted during the preview of every race these days it seems. We could go round in circles all day arguing over what is or not value. Luke makes a valid point about the market pushing horses like Big Buck's out to 11/8. It's certainly not the perfect market. I much rather ask people what price they would back a horse regardless of whether they fancy it or not. The price you will risk your money at is a much better indicator than anyone's perception of 'value'
 
Gearoid said:
But that suggests making gambling pay which is not the same thing as obtaining value. The best judges of value might be the worst punters in the world.
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Making it pay is all about discipline and staking (assuming one has the rudiments of form analysis)
I know someone who is sharp as a tack but feels every loss as a personal affront and just plunges straight in again.
 
Gearoid said:
The word value gets touted during the preview of every race these days it seems. We could go round in circles all day arguing over what is or not value. Luke makes a valid point about the market pushing horses like Big Buck's out to 11/8. It's certainly not the perfect market. I much rather ask people what price they would back a horse regardless of whether they fancy it or not. The price you will risk your money at is a much better indicator than anyone's perception of 'value'
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But the price at which I would risk my money is the indicator I use for value. I don't care about the market other than the fact that it gives me the prices.

In the coin toss example you gave, I denote "value" to be anything over Evens.

Simples.

The two examples of value that leapt out at me from the Cheltenham Festival were the Big Buck's example Luke gave and the 6/1 about Finian's for the Arkle.
 
Bar the Bull said:
The two examples of value that leapt out at me from the Cheltenham Festival were the Big Buck's example Luke gave and the 6/1 about Finian's for the Arkle.
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For me it was Sizing Europe in double figures for the QM. I didn't fancy him that strongly for the race and didn't have a big bet but it made no sense at all that he was longer in price than Woolcombe Folly and Somersby. Layers tend to put too much emphasis on the most recent bit of form a horse has as opposed to their overall profile.
 
Bar the Bull said:
Simples.

The two examples of value that leapt out at me from the Cheltenham Festival were the Big Buck's example Luke gave and the 6/1 about Finian's for the Arkle.
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The true price of a coin toss can be proved mathematically. I'd like you to apply the same theory to an Irish maiden hurdle.



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