Shadow Leader
At the Start
- Joined
- Nov 9, 2003
- Messages
- 9,884
You can't eat value, as they say.
"Value" - what the hell is it?
- Thread starter krizon
- Start date
G
Gearoid
Guest
You can't eat valve and... the bookmakers offer ediot insurance if you back the horse less than the SP. Never has a more favourable time to back winners regardless of price.
orchard cross paddocks
At the Start
- Joined
- Mar 31, 2011
- Messages
- 37
I fancied the Colin tizzard horse in the last at Cheltenham
it was 70.1 on betfair so I had the big £3 that was making my balance look odd on betfair!
now if it was 10.1 I would have put £23 on it!
was that price good value or not?
as it won no it wasn't!
it was 70.1 on betfair so I had the big £3 that was making my balance look odd on betfair!
now if it was 10.1 I would have put £23 on it!
was that price good value or not?
as it won no it wasn't!
M
Marble
Guest
Yes it has to be in the eye of the beholder, definately.
Going off on a slight tangent; i've noticed the amount of 14/1... 16/1... 20/1 shots running that should be 100-1 shots based on form, and how they seem to actually run seems to be going up. I have no stats of course that is just my naked eye interpretation over the last couple of years.
I think in some cases bookmakers are trying to make it appear that these horses 'have some sort of a small percentage chance of winning' when in actual fact they've hardly any chance whatsoever: bascially distorting the probablilty of outside chances winning, which by it's very nature would be much easier to do than a red hot jolly in the Champion Chase. This seems especially pertinent to some races in Ireland as one poster has already pointed out on the thread.
What concerns me is in the long run, when it seems major contributing factors to a price of a horse appear to be dictated by basically - bookmakers just trying to form a market that looks appealing to ordinary run-of-the-mill punters in the shops: e.g. making a horse a 20's chance when it should really be a 50's chance, & vice versa making a horse that should be 11/2 chance a 3/1 favourite to attract blind favourite backers, what are you left with?
A betting market with more smoke and mirrors than the magic circle association? Are odds watchers being led down the garden path more than ever before, or have they never had it so good with the exchanges as the most telling market guide I wonder?
Going off on a slight tangent; i've noticed the amount of 14/1... 16/1... 20/1 shots running that should be 100-1 shots based on form, and how they seem to actually run seems to be going up. I have no stats of course that is just my naked eye interpretation over the last couple of years.
I think in some cases bookmakers are trying to make it appear that these horses 'have some sort of a small percentage chance of winning' when in actual fact they've hardly any chance whatsoever: bascially distorting the probablilty of outside chances winning, which by it's very nature would be much easier to do than a red hot jolly in the Champion Chase. This seems especially pertinent to some races in Ireland as one poster has already pointed out on the thread.
What concerns me is in the long run, when it seems major contributing factors to a price of a horse appear to be dictated by basically - bookmakers just trying to form a market that looks appealing to ordinary run-of-the-mill punters in the shops: e.g. making a horse a 20's chance when it should really be a 50's chance, & vice versa making a horse that should be 11/2 chance a 3/1 favourite to attract blind favourite backers, what are you left with?
A betting market with more smoke and mirrors than the magic circle association? Are odds watchers being led down the garden path more than ever before, or have they never had it so good with the exchanges as the most telling market guide I wonder?
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Thanks Jon. Hopefully sooner rather than later I've a couple in training, just depends how long before they come to hand.
