VALUE

[barjon]

Over the years everyone has kept telling me “if you don’t get value you’ll finish up in the poorhouse”. Value they define as a horse having longer odds than they should have. Fair enough, but the key word in that is “should” and what is that other than an opinion? By that token, “value” is just an opinion, too.

In hindsight, you could argue that the best “value” in a race rested with the winner and any opinions that suggested otherwise were incorrect.

Over the years I have found that horses strengthening in the market do immeasurably better than horses who drift in the market. Thus, I accept worse “value” as they shorten and refuse better “value” as they drift. I should be in the poorhouse shouldn’t I?

 

[Marb]

I've never seen such volatile markets.

Admittedly, I'm just going by what I see on Oddschecker.

Recently, I've seen horses backed in from 40s to 16s overnight, only to drift back to 33s near racetime.

Years ago, I used to feel I could glean what was fancied, or perceived as the golden goose, 'value', by checking the betting markets.

Granted, not necessarily on every race, but certainly more than I can now.

So I'm with you, Barj.

Although the bookies never really miss a trick, and I've left horses alone recently because they were just too short for my liking, but have gone and won.

 

[Len Madeiros]

All totally subjective, of course. What would tempt one person in to back a horse at evens, would scare another person off.

 

[Danny]

There's a point to value where yes you have to see value in a bet but the bet has to be able to win. You can have horses at 33/1 think that's overpriced and should be around 16's but that simply places him where he should be respective of others in the market. I.e where you think he has a better chance than some of those shorter than him who you think should be bigger. That doesn't mean you think the horse will or can win. You maybe a punter who thinks you'll back it each way because he might get a place but that's the worst type of bet imo and one I was very guilty of making far too often back in the day. First and foremost look for what you think will Win ! Then decide if it equates to value. Each way should be used as a I think this will win there are possibly a couple of dangers but at worst he should be in the frame rather than backing a horse and saying he probably won't win but he might make the frame.

 

[pawras]

Imo value is in the eye of the beholder

Any odds for a horse can be good or bad value, depends on your strike rate at those type of odds.

If you back an even money shot do you win more or less than 50% of the time? Anything over 50% then you are getting 'value'

 

[archie]

I exclude book builders as they use a different rationale but, by and large, I most often hear the word 'value' used by losing punters as a consolation.

Of course, if you're betting to enhance your pleasure in watching a race rather than just making money, you can claim value in getting a good but losing run for your money.

 

[Outsider]

Imo value is in the eye of the beholder

I agree.
I've backed Constitution Hill at 5/1 for the CH as I think that's value.
If it doesn't run or loses then its just another loser but I consider its value.

 

[2017diary]

Pawras - Imo value is in the eye of the beholder

I'm in full agreement with this way of thinking

 

[Desert Orchid]

This is something I agree with too, ie that value is in the eye of the beholder.

People who have been on here long enough will also know that I have no issue with backing longshots but apart from the odd view that I've admitted in advance to be 'gut' bets, I don't think I've ever posted a bet that I didn't feel was value. There have also been a few when I've said I was looking for place-only because I didn't really feel they could win but when I do that I'm usually looking for the full quarter/fifth of the win price. I've found more and more over the last couple of seasons that bookies are not offering anywhere near the full quarter/fifth odds.

My favourite bets, though, tend to be ones that I think should be clear favourites but aren't. At that point I tend not to care too much about the price on offer as anything better than being favourite pretty much has to be value.

 

[LUKE]

The brother was giving me a lift home yesterday and decided he wanted to stop off in a Paddy Power shop for 20minutes.As someone who has 2 active accounts betfair and 365 I was horrified by the High margin bets and constant noise-they would drive you demented.

 

[Danny]

That last bit Maurice is perfectly put, about what you think should be favourite but isn't. That's really how every bet should be.

 

[an capall]

The brother was giving me a lift home yesterday and decided he wanted to stop off in a Paddy Power shop for 20minutes.As someone who has 2 active accounts betfair and 365 I was horrified by the High margin bets and constant noise-they would drive you demented.

I found myself in a PP shop on Sunday passing some time while SWAMBO retailed. There was something going on where customers in a shop were being given a free bet if they loudly made eejits of themselves. Between that and roulette and cartoon racing it was as ear splitting as a bag of cats. Sheer torture. Went for a pint instead. It even made me yearn for the dark days of the seventies when the EXTEL lady announcer made the only noise. "Huntingdon result. Five- Nine - Four." I'd even pay the 20% tax for the quietude.

 

[LUKE]

I found myself in a PP shop on Sunday passing some time while SWAMBO retailed. There was something going on where customers in a shop were being given a free bet if they loudly made eejits of themselves. Between that and roulette and cartoon racing it was as ear splitting as a bag of cats. Sheer torture. Went for a pint instead. It even made me yearn for the dark days of the seventies when the EXTEL lady announcer made the only noise. "Huntingdon result. Five- Nine - Four." I'd even pay the 20% tax for the quietude.

That's very close to what I was thinking -it was probably easier to win paying 20% tax in the 80's than it is now up against the almighty PP algorithm.My local shop back in the day was owned by John Corcoran -who was one of the founders of Paddy Power.People would come from far and wide to bet there on a Saturday because they would massive bets over the counter and also paid double result.The customers were from all levels of society and I can remember lads leaving the shop to listen to commentaries from the Irish meetings on a Saturday that some lad would play on his car radio.Simpler times.

 

[pawras]

FFS 20% was bit steep

Betting Tax Rates in Ireland
Period Rate of Tax
Until 1986 20%
Until 1999 10%
Until 2002 5%
Until 2006 2%
Current 1%

 

[pawras]

This made me remember some reports I built a good while since where I looked at UK vs IRE racing on a few things, one being odds and overrounds, so I reran it to get the recent figures.

IRE bookies were certainly a bit naughty with those overrounds in the early 2000s.

This covers all races so later on I'll do a drill down to something like 12 runner hurdle hcaps only to get a more direct 1 to 1 comparison

 

[barjon]

Interesting figures, pawras.

 

[LUKE]

An acquaintance of mine also said the overground didn't matter because there were so many non triers.

 

[pawras]

An acquaintance of mine also said the overground didn't matter because there were so many non triers.

That's interesting

 

[an capall]

I remember having that discussion with Francis Hyland, head of Irish bookmakers association, about 20 years ago. He was arguing the same point as Luke's acquaintance, my view was that if you price 10 individual non-triers in a maiden hurdle* at 33/1 then 30% should be added to the overround and the bookies judged accordingly. If you know a horse is not going to win 'no offers' should be the default. Otherwise, count it in.

*10 non triers in an Irish Maiden Hurdle would be a conservative estimate.

 

[Grey]

It’s more often a case of no hopers than non-triers in those big field flat maidens, beginners chases, maiden hurdles and bumpers. You have horses of all levels of ability pitted against the latest prodigies from the big owners. You can take your horse to Sligo or Tramore instead of the bigger tracks but you’ll meet the expensive horses there too.

 

[pawras]

So to get a one to one comparison and avoid races with numerous non triers & official mark fiddlers, I looked to see what had a reasonable sample size and as such I've narrowed it down to just group or listed , flat stakes races with 8 runners.

 

[Grey]

Thanks for your work on this.

The gist of it is that GB over rounds are quite stable, while in Ireland they were significantly higher but are now drifting downwards towards the British levels?

I would attribute that to increased participation by British bookmakers and punters in Irish betting markets.

 

[pawras]

Yeah the ire over rounds do look to have trended down for this race criteria.
When I looked at load of stuff like this for someone 2-3 years ago I seem to remember the story could vary depending on the race parameters.

 

[an capall]

Thanks for your work on this.

The gist of it is that GB over rounds are quite stable, while in Ireland they were significantly higher but are now drifting downwards towards the British levels?

I would attribute that to increased participation by British bookmakers and punters in Irish betting markets.

I'd go all in on the presence of the exchanges.

 

[LUKE]

I'd go all in on the presence of the exchanges.

Absolutely.