A mine field, of course, at York
It's wallet-shrinker, for sure and it calls for extreme caution imo.
So I have to say that my real bet tomorrow won't be running over the Knavesmire but across the sunlit uplands of the cat litter at Wolverhampton and I would add that this is a strong fancy indeed. The road to the booby hatch is littered with such statements, I know, but , really, this looks a stonking ew proposition to me:
Visibilty - 3.25 Wolverhampton 20/1 ew Unpl
The most disappointing outcome of the day for me and one of those results that spoilt the whole day for me tbh. I'm having real difficulty coming to terms with how badly the horse ran; completely lacklustre. The consolation should be that the mark will recede but that scant comfort and I feel bruised.
I noted this one two runs ago. Held out the back in a reasonable 1m Cl3 on ground that would have been softer than ideal, it all was happening too fast for him until he began picking them off, under driving, and at the post he was definitely gaining. The 1m looked to be just too short a trip. He last won over 10f Interesting.
Next and last time up at Doncaster, the ground would have been more to liking (g/f), again Cl3, but the trip, 1m again, too short. This race was a truly - run affair and he only weakened in the final furlong.
It should be noted that both these runs were Cl 3's. Indeed, his last 9 runs have been in Cl 4 or above and tomorrow we see him right down to a class 5 over further: 1m 11/2f. He's a c/d winner, his mark has dropped 2Lbs and is ridden by the apprentice who rode him on his last win at the course. I do feel that the drop in class and rating must give him a massive chance, don't you? The favourite for the race has been winning in Cl 5&6.
Over to York, then and looking at the opener. Well, I suppose you could reasonably make equal cases for 3/4 of the field and so much will be down to not only form but intuitionand it's that which guides my choice:
Atalis bay - 1.50 York - 10/1 Ew 3rd 10/1
So close with this one- two short heads and gaining at the line. Although my judgement was vindicated it was another blow on the day. The margins are so, so small; the difference between a successful day and pain. lol
Looking at his last run at Goodwood, it had the look of a nice prep race. Meeting with some (inevitable) trouble, he did make very nice late headway which made me look further into his form.
Last season, in September, he ran at Haydock (5f) and ran Mondammej to 1L giving that one 13Lbs and reopposes tomorrow on 18Ls better terms. In the same race, he ran Copper Knight to 3/4L giving 7Lbs. Tomorrow? 11Lbs better off. Since that run, his mark has dropped from 103 to 97. It has the look of a horse who's been targetted at this.
In the 2m handicap, I feel such an affinity with Frankenstella, who I've followed from her early staying days and have backed every time she's won. Unfortunately, her career has been interrupted by her previous owners being allegedly involved in unlawful activities so her appearances have been limited. I feel a loyalty to her since I've always considered her to be one that should be ratted in the 90's. However, I also strongly think that she needs easier ground than we'll get tomorrow and that does dampen my enthusiasm somewhat. I shall back her, of course.
Frankenstella - 4.10 York - 8/1 Ew 2nd 8/1
Again, a small profit but beaten fair and square. I did have some reservations about the going and so it proved. I would expect a profitable autumn campaign but even if he wins, the price will be skinny, eh?
I would be very fearful of Soapy Stevens in that race.
Finally, I look at the 4.45 and, despite your assertion that the plot may be on with Hellomydarlin, Outsider, I am choosing another in the ubiquitous Nick Bradley silks:
Corazon - 4.45 York - 10/1 Ew Unpl.
A poor end to the day, really with not even a frame finish. I suppose it was a fiercely competitive event and I shouldn't have expected anything else.
I love her run at Ascot in July where she met trouble and still ran a corker. next time up (lto) they ran her over 6f, got beat and the mark went down another 3Lbs. Buick, who rode at Ascot, gets up again and, if anything, this one looks a more likely plot, mate. This horse has won a gp 3 in France and they've engineered her mark down into handicap company from 103 to 96. I just can't resist an ew look.
Anyway, that's the way I see things fpr tomorrow and I'll be happy if mine give me a good run for my money.
4 x ew singles
Ew L15
Good luck
Two very decent placed performances yet I'm left with a sense of failure and a slightly bitter taste. Ho hum
It's wallet-shrinker, for sure and it calls for extreme caution imo.
So I have to say that my real bet tomorrow won't be running over the Knavesmire but across the sunlit uplands of the cat litter at Wolverhampton and I would add that this is a strong fancy indeed. The road to the booby hatch is littered with such statements, I know, but , really, this looks a stonking ew proposition to me:
Visibilty - 3.25 Wolverhampton 20/1 ew Unpl
The most disappointing outcome of the day for me and one of those results that spoilt the whole day for me tbh. I'm having real difficulty coming to terms with how badly the horse ran; completely lacklustre. The consolation should be that the mark will recede but that scant comfort and I feel bruised.
I noted this one two runs ago. Held out the back in a reasonable 1m Cl3 on ground that would have been softer than ideal, it all was happening too fast for him until he began picking them off, under driving, and at the post he was definitely gaining. The 1m looked to be just too short a trip. He last won over 10f Interesting.
Next and last time up at Doncaster, the ground would have been more to liking (g/f), again Cl3, but the trip, 1m again, too short. This race was a truly - run affair and he only weakened in the final furlong.
It should be noted that both these runs were Cl 3's. Indeed, his last 9 runs have been in Cl 4 or above and tomorrow we see him right down to a class 5 over further: 1m 11/2f. He's a c/d winner, his mark has dropped 2Lbs and is ridden by the apprentice who rode him on his last win at the course. I do feel that the drop in class and rating must give him a massive chance, don't you? The favourite for the race has been winning in Cl 5&6.
Over to York, then and looking at the opener. Well, I suppose you could reasonably make equal cases for 3/4 of the field and so much will be down to not only form but intuitionand it's that which guides my choice:
Atalis bay - 1.50 York - 10/1 Ew 3rd 10/1
So close with this one- two short heads and gaining at the line. Although my judgement was vindicated it was another blow on the day. The margins are so, so small; the difference between a successful day and pain. lol
Looking at his last run at Goodwood, it had the look of a nice prep race. Meeting with some (inevitable) trouble, he did make very nice late headway which made me look further into his form.
Last season, in September, he ran at Haydock (5f) and ran Mondammej to 1L giving that one 13Lbs and reopposes tomorrow on 18Ls better terms. In the same race, he ran Copper Knight to 3/4L giving 7Lbs. Tomorrow? 11Lbs better off. Since that run, his mark has dropped from 103 to 97. It has the look of a horse who's been targetted at this.
In the 2m handicap, I feel such an affinity with Frankenstella, who I've followed from her early staying days and have backed every time she's won. Unfortunately, her career has been interrupted by her previous owners being allegedly involved in unlawful activities so her appearances have been limited. I feel a loyalty to her since I've always considered her to be one that should be ratted in the 90's. However, I also strongly think that she needs easier ground than we'll get tomorrow and that does dampen my enthusiasm somewhat. I shall back her, of course.
Frankenstella - 4.10 York - 8/1 Ew 2nd 8/1
Again, a small profit but beaten fair and square. I did have some reservations about the going and so it proved. I would expect a profitable autumn campaign but even if he wins, the price will be skinny, eh?
I would be very fearful of Soapy Stevens in that race.
Finally, I look at the 4.45 and, despite your assertion that the plot may be on with Hellomydarlin, Outsider, I am choosing another in the ubiquitous Nick Bradley silks:
Corazon - 4.45 York - 10/1 Ew Unpl.
A poor end to the day, really with not even a frame finish. I suppose it was a fiercely competitive event and I shouldn't have expected anything else.
I love her run at Ascot in July where she met trouble and still ran a corker. next time up (lto) they ran her over 6f, got beat and the mark went down another 3Lbs. Buick, who rode at Ascot, gets up again and, if anything, this one looks a more likely plot, mate. This horse has won a gp 3 in France and they've engineered her mark down into handicap company from 103 to 96. I just can't resist an ew look.
Anyway, that's the way I see things fpr tomorrow and I'll be happy if mine give me a good run for my money.
4 x ew singles
Ew L15
Good luck
Two very decent placed performances yet I'm left with a sense of failure and a slightly bitter taste. Ho hum
