chaumi
Well-known member
Running total for March to level stakes +42.8
I don't bet level stakes. Nor percentages, progressives, or anything like that. Stakes vary depending on several/multiple factors, no hard and fast formula. This level stakes tracking is just an interesting exercise to see whether bank size at the end of it does actually correlate with the level stake figures. Maybe that will be illuminating and prompt some future enhancements in approaches to staking.
Busy day today. One of those days where extreme caution will be required. The sensible option is to walk away now. But one or two of these might surprise, all be it without anything standing out as obvious at this point. It could be that 80% of these end up with nothing riding on them, depending on prices and better checks on the opposition.
But the running total is good enough to handle some risks and some beatings vs potential returns. Just be careful where you take the risks, Chaumi. Be mindful of whether they're really worth it - remember some of these are well left field...
(bit of a late start, thought I'd posted about an hour ago but it was still in draft, so already two runs in...with updates)...
Several to watch 11.55 Le Mans
Narrowed this down to two and the more I looked the more confidence grew, such that I ended up breaking a rule and betting single figures. Stupid boy, Chaumi. But it paid off.
Couldn't split the two with a mild preference for the A Fabre runner, both 6.8, and that looked pretty fair in the overall context. The other one (Xtramour) went from near last to first around 4 out and ground it out from there. Looked impressive and had to fight for it close home. The Fabre horse (Atienza) is worth watching over next few runs, think he is still learning - looked like he may grab 2nd or even win it a furlong out but was running on the rail away from the others. Finished 5th.
+5.8
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Giddy Up 12.10 Happy
Left it alone, not big enough at around 14s, wanted 25 minimum. But no show anyway.
**************************
Whizalio 1.12 Le Mans
Amelias Joy/Zou Juice 2.02 South
Law Degree/Jet Approach 2.10 Catt
Jerry From Kerry 2.20 Naas
Trusty Scout 2.32 South
Alibey 2.40 Catt
Harry's Legacy 2.50 Naas Watch for the future (2nd string on paper), shouldn't do much in this rated novice with the stable running a fancied stablemate.
Another Zonda / Fivefortwo 2.50 Happy
Safio's Princess 3.02 South Extremely unlikely, but may have something for a weak Southwell handicap after this.
Can't Catch Molly/The Cobblers Wife 3.45 Naas Probably watchers, but first 4 in the 20s may be worth the risk.
Gaeli 4.02 South
Lunar Contact 4.10 Catt
Barrowline 4.22 Naas
Snow Boots 5.00 Kem
Midnight's Dream 6.00 Kem Probably too tough a race, likely not today but keep an eye on it.
Une Fragrance 6.45 Marseille
Sonnerie Power 8.00 Kem Will be a bet if in the mid-teens up. Can't see it though, expecting single figures and - after stupidly missing the 18-1 win in a class 6 back in Jan - you can have a single figures win on me, Sonnerie.
Nutcracker 8.30
I don't bet level stakes. Nor percentages, progressives, or anything like that. Stakes vary depending on several/multiple factors, no hard and fast formula. This level stakes tracking is just an interesting exercise to see whether bank size at the end of it does actually correlate with the level stake figures. Maybe that will be illuminating and prompt some future enhancements in approaches to staking.
Busy day today. One of those days where extreme caution will be required. The sensible option is to walk away now. But one or two of these might surprise, all be it without anything standing out as obvious at this point. It could be that 80% of these end up with nothing riding on them, depending on prices and better checks on the opposition.
But the running total is good enough to handle some risks and some beatings vs potential returns. Just be careful where you take the risks, Chaumi. Be mindful of whether they're really worth it - remember some of these are well left field...
(bit of a late start, thought I'd posted about an hour ago but it was still in draft, so already two runs in...with updates)...
Several to watch 11.55 Le Mans
Narrowed this down to two and the more I looked the more confidence grew, such that I ended up breaking a rule and betting single figures. Stupid boy, Chaumi. But it paid off.
Couldn't split the two with a mild preference for the A Fabre runner, both 6.8, and that looked pretty fair in the overall context. The other one (Xtramour) went from near last to first around 4 out and ground it out from there. Looked impressive and had to fight for it close home. The Fabre horse (Atienza) is worth watching over next few runs, think he is still learning - looked like he may grab 2nd or even win it a furlong out but was running on the rail away from the others. Finished 5th.
+5.8
****************************
Giddy Up 12.10 Happy
Left it alone, not big enough at around 14s, wanted 25 minimum. But no show anyway.
**************************
Whizalio 1.12 Le Mans
Amelias Joy/Zou Juice 2.02 South
Law Degree/Jet Approach 2.10 Catt
Jerry From Kerry 2.20 Naas
Trusty Scout 2.32 South
Alibey 2.40 Catt
Harry's Legacy 2.50 Naas Watch for the future (2nd string on paper), shouldn't do much in this rated novice with the stable running a fancied stablemate.
Another Zonda / Fivefortwo 2.50 Happy
Safio's Princess 3.02 South Extremely unlikely, but may have something for a weak Southwell handicap after this.
Can't Catch Molly/The Cobblers Wife 3.45 Naas Probably watchers, but first 4 in the 20s may be worth the risk.
Gaeli 4.02 South
Lunar Contact 4.10 Catt
Barrowline 4.22 Naas
Snow Boots 5.00 Kem
Midnight's Dream 6.00 Kem Probably too tough a race, likely not today but keep an eye on it.
Une Fragrance 6.45 Marseille
Sonnerie Power 8.00 Kem Will be a bet if in the mid-teens up. Can't see it though, expecting single figures and - after stupidly missing the 18-1 win in a class 6 back in Jan - you can have a single figures win on me, Sonnerie.
Nutcracker 8.30
