Wednesday Action

Bar the Bull

Bar the Bull

At the Start
Joined
May 2, 2003
Messages
9,534
Location
Llandubno, West Wales (very west)
Kind of surprised that there is no thread on today’s action.

The one that immediately leaps out at me is Yahrab in the Feilden. If he hadn’t run in Dubai, he would have been 5-1 or so for this; double the odds will do for me, with doubts over the rest of the field for one reason or another (fitness / quality).

I am dying to give Brave Prospector a chance in the Free Handicap, but I am irresistibly drawn to the chances of the favourite, who looked a decent tool last year and who looked a serious yolk in his last two races last year. So Stimulation for me. You can put a line through most of the field on the grounds of stamina.

The Nell Gwynn looks a little weak this year. If you’re backing Infallible at 3/1 in this race, you’d need to be seeing her homework, as she ran a tin-pot maiden here the last day. Shabiba is another maiden winner at twice the price, who is bred to stay and be good. My worry is Spinning Lucy, who is a decent filly when allowed to dominate.

I am aware that any credibility I had will dissipate as you read this paragraph. Over at the other HQ, I am absolutely gobsmacked to see my old favourite running off a mark of 125 with Ruby on board. He has won at Cheltenham before, likes fast ground and if there is 8/1 available, I will be having a score on Le Duc.
 
Originally posted by Bar the Bull@Apr 16 2008, 06:45 AM
the favourite, who looked a decent tool last year and who looked a serious yolk in his last two races last year.
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"Tool" I can just about accept, but I'm not sure I can go with "yolk".
 
Some really good stuff today…

At Newmarket-

Skadrak is interesting in the 4.55. Ran really well in what looked an above average maiden.

In the Free Handicap I like Stimulation. Always looked the sort to make a better three year old and should go really well today.

While the Ballydoyle form is iffy the debut of Tale Of Two Cities impressed me last season before he disappointed at Group 1 level in France. He will probably need todays run and could be shorter in the market than he deserves but I think he will go really well today.

At Cheltenham Glenfinn Captain is really interesting when you consider that McCoy has elected to ride him ahead of a decent yard stick like Hasty Prince. It is his first time over this trip but if he could rediscover a bit of his old sparkle I think he should go well.
 
A typically nasty looking Nell Gwyn. Spinning Lucy a tentative choice for me.

At Cheltenham, I'm also backing Ruby, on Ofarel D'Airy. Honourable e/w mention to outsider Il Duce as well.
 
RETURN OF THE RAK

as2pc7.jpg

Skadrak (right) 2nd to Atlantic Sport on debut

Well we are here again at the proper start of the flat season and like last year I'm going to pass on bits and pieces now and again.

4.55

Technically this is no longer in my area but SKADRAK was a horse last season who I thought was equal to Ibn Khaldun on the gallops. He used to gallop all over Winker Watson and was highly thought of by connections. He has been working well with City Leader at home for Brian Meehan this season and I expect him to boost this Guineas claims this afternoon. Otaared looked a nice horse last year and the full brother to Bint Allyal has been showing up nicely lately on the Warren Hill gallop with Speedy Dollar and Magistrate, he has each way claims.

2.00

This will be tough to see the O'Brien horse beat but our 2nd advice today comes in the shape of CHECKLOW who impressed pulling 8L clear of a modest handicapper on the Al Bahathri last week. That horse was 2nd on Saturday and Checklow breezed up nicely yesterday with Arabian Gleam cementing his well being. He could go close on debut.

Another to note will be CRYSTANY in the 5.30 having gone nicely with Friday's winner Cape last Wednesday. She needs the run but has each way claims.

That completes today's outlook but hopefully we will have some stronger bets to come.

Good Luck

Chris
 
According to the RP, Skadrak is the highest-rated once-raced maiden ever in the history of the Free Handicap.

So there you go!
 
Hello all.

Its best of both worlds today, and the flat season really gets into swing.

We've already seen two decent maiden winners this week (Dunlop's at Windsor and Jarvis's at Notts yesterday).

The O'Brien animal must be a certainty in the first at Newmarket with his G1 form, but is very weak in the market against the Noseda debutant.

The Gosden filly in the Nell Gwyn is meant to be good but his stable has started very slowly this season and I fancy Shabiba for Tregoning and Hills.

I really hope Henry Cecil's two live classic hopes come good for him this year and Kandahar Run looks banker material in the Fielden, although any O'Brien runner over here is a danger, as they often improve markedly for the better ground.

Again I would have to leave the Gosden runner alone in the Alex Scott Maiden purely due to stable form. It might hose up but how can you back a horse from his yard at present?
 
Originally posted by numbersix@Apr 16 2008, 11:09 AM

The Gosden filly in the Nell Gwyn is meant to be good but his stable has started very slowly this season and I fancy Shabiba for Tregoning and Hills.


Again I would have to leave the Gosden runner alone in the Alex Scott Maiden purely due to stable form. It might hose up but how can you back a horse from his yard at present?
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Not today Gosdens stable was slow !
 
BTW I think the esteemed Mr Rowlands is being slightly selective. One of his stats is "only two of the last seven 1,000 Guineas winners had run previously that season".

Why pick 7 years? Possibly because the 8th and 9th last winners won off a prep, and 4 from 9 doesn't prove the point like 2 from 7?
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@Apr 16 2008, 03:50 PM
I dunno Charlie, another Adagio that I can oppose all day would be nice :)
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Gareth

I think you probably make the same point as Simon :)
 
Originally posted by crazyhorse+Apr 16 2008, 02:54 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (crazyhorse @ Apr 16 2008, 02:54 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-numbersix@Apr 16 2008, 11:09 AM

The Gosden filly in the Nell Gwyn is meant to be good but his stable has started very slowly this season and I fancy Shabiba for Tregoning and Hills.


Again I would have to leave the Gosden runner alone in the Alex Scott Maiden purely due to stable form. It might hose up but how can you back a horse from his yard at present?
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Not today Gosdens stable was slow ! [/b][/quote]
How wrong can a man be!!!!!!!!

Blimey, he his on fire all of a sudden. Maybe the bad ground at places like Windsor and Notts made his team look backward.

I thought Durcan didn't excel himself on Kandahar Run - but Mellish said the horse would come on for the run and he wasn't knocked about - didn't look Derby material though.

It seems ages since the Nell Gwynn and Free Handicap threw up potentially decent animals - lets hope the Craven does likewise tomorrow.
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@Apr 16 2008, 03:55 PM


Why pick 7 years?
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Dunno Gareth


I was once asked, Why 10? I replied, it's a nice round number


Maybe 7 is Simon's lucky number :D
 
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