Welsh National

No thoughts on a bet, but I'd like to see Knowhere retired asap. The horse has lost his form and I can't see the point of plugging away in races he has little chance of winning.
 
Course form and a light-weight a must for this race, imo. I'm not entirely convinced he will stay, and he's not what I'd call generously handicapped, but I've had a sporting e/w bet on Giles Cross.
 
I know his jumping wouldn't be just fantastic but Ballyfitz at 16/1 ew may not be the worst bet in the world - has NTD had any winners lately ?
 
I like Bench Warrent myself at 40/1 - stamina may be an issue but he has a very light weight handles soft/heavy and on a line through Dance Island who is 9/1 he should finish in front of him at the weights. http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=499116&r_date=2010-03-02&popup=ye

Horse has only run once with less than 11 stone on his back and is set to carry 9-11 and still young enough and lightly raced to be considered unexposed. Trainer has a reasonably good record at the track and jockey is 3wins from 11 runs there.

Negatives are heavy fall L/T/O and possible stamina issue and no course form,
but at the price worth an e/way if he lines up.
 
I've just been reading up on him and in the space of 5 minutes have talked myself into backing him and then not backing him. He's the highest rated horse on the little list that I do for these sort of races but he hasn't won over 3 miles. I'd so love Dream Alliance to win again. Silver by Nature is the sort of classy type that could carry a big weight in something like this. Ballyfitz has been my bogey horse for a few seasons now, so my ew pennies may have to go on him. Maktu looks more like the winner to me, but I only have small ew bets and I've missed any decent price on him.
 
I am going to take a chance on two in this. Exmoor Ranger and Arbor Supreme. The former is unproven at the trip but his run style suggets to me it will suit and has form on soft ground. Not always a fluent jumper but if able to stay with them early I can see him thereabouts at the sharp end similar to the last day when third behind Midnight Chase. Arbor Supreme stays and ground no problem. Ran a bit flat on seasonal debut I suppose but proven in races of this nature and apeals to me anyway. A few pence on Royal Rosa as well I think.
 
I think the winner will come from anywhere between 5 & 12 on the racecard but 5,8,9 & 12 are my fancies,just need to decide which 1 is the winner!
 
Chef - sorry to see your fancy BENCH WARRENT take that horrible fall. Does anybody know if he survived it? Nary a squeak from ATR/RP.
 
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