Welsh National

[Maxbet]

If the card goes ahead, here are the trends....

18/18 – Raced within the last 7 weeks.
18/18 – Had won between 1-5 chase races before.
18/18 – Had won over at least 3m before (fences)
16/18 – Aged 9 or younger.

Cloudy Glen, The Hollow Ginge, The Two Amigos, Springfield Fox, Dominateur, Captain Drake, Christmas In April, Secret Reprieve, Calipso Collonges., Ramses De Teillee, Truckers Lodge, Lord Du Mesnil.

14/18 – Carrie’s 11-0 or less in weight.

Cloudy Glen, The Hollow Ginge, The Two Amigos, Springfield Fox, Dominateur, Captain Drake, Christmas In April, Secret Reprieve, Calipso Collonges.

16/18 – Placed in the top 4 last time out.

Cloudy Glen, The Hollow Ginge, The Two Amigos, Springfield Fox, Dominateur, Christmas In April, Secret Reprieve, Calipso Collonges.

13/18 – Aged 8 or younger.

Cloudy Glen, The Hollow Ginge, Springfield Fox, Dominateur, Secret Reprieve.

12/18 – Carries 10-8 or less in weight.

Springfield Fox, Dominateur, Secret Reprieve.

12/18 – Had won just 2 or 3 times before over fences.
9/18 – Had won over fences at Chepstow before.
Springfield Fox, Dominateur.

5/18 – Ran at Chepstow last time out.

Springfield Fox

Ran in the 3m 6f NH novice chase at the festival and nearly uprooted the first, despite a few more bad mistakes on his journey round, he still made most of the running. A bad mistake after being badly hampered by Lord Du Mesnil saw to his demise, he came down at the fence before the water on the final circuit. He was still pulling a cart at the time, moreover, he carried on jumping loose. Like a Tiger Tank, he ploughed through 6 uprights adjacent to a fence as if they weren’t there and still he didn’t stop…

Lord Du Mesnil finally finished second beaten 2 Lengths by Ravenhill. Springfield Fox has a 9Lb pull with LDM here, Will relish every inch of the distance. Has exactly the same Dosage Index (DI) and Centre of distribution (CoD) as Native River and Notre Pere (both Welsh National winner’s). The same CoD as Edmond, another Welsh National winner. Incidentally, he ran over hurdle’s on the course last time out, to protect his good mark no doubt. The easier fences will pose no problem to this Tiger Tank…..Maxbet recommended.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Secret Reprieve also qualifies under the last two criteria.

 

[wilsonl]

At the risk of coming across as a pedant Max, the 10-8 stat seems a bit of a retro-fit and Springfield Fox actually has 10-9 anyhow

 

[Maxbet]

Secret Reprieve also qualifies under the last two criteria.

but he drops out on the...12/18 – Had won just 2 or 3 times before over fences.

 

[Maxbet]

At the risk of coming across as a Pedantic Max, the 10-8 stat seems a bit of a retro-fit and Springfield Fox actually has 10-9 anyhow

https://racingahead.net/news/6505/2020-welsh-grand-national-free-tips-and-trends/

 

[Maxbet]

12 of the last 20 winners, either cut out or shared the running

 

[an capall]

Secret Reprieve is a good thing.

 

[Maxbet]

Secret Reprieve is a good thing.

that will be 2nd fav

 

[Desert Orchid]

You mean it's not even your own work, Maxbet?

FWIW, these are my figures. I haven't laid out my thoughts in full as I plan to do that later today or this evening but I should point out that where I have 'nov', I add a notional 10lbs to allow for second-season possible/likely improvement. The likes of Secret Reprieve has already made significant second-season improvement, as his new OR implies.

Whether the likes of LDM can find that improvement I'm not so sure as he was running in open handicaps last spring but I certainly wouldn't want to rule out the possibility.

[TABLE="width: 500"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]Age[/TD]
[TD]Weight[/TD]
[TD]Trainer[/TD]
[TD]Jockey[/TD]
[TD]MON
173+[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Vieux Lion Rouge[/TD]
[TD]12 [/TD]
[TD]10-11 4ex [/TD]
[TD]David Pipe[/TD]
[TD]Conor O'Farrell[/TD]
[TD]174[/TD]
[TD]??[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Secret Reprieve[/TD]
[TD]7 [/TD]
[TD]10-1 4ex [/TD]
[TD]Evan Williams[/TD]
[TD]Adam Wedge[/TD]
[TD]174[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] The Two Amigos[/TD]
[TD]9 [/TD]
[TD]10-9 [/TD]
[TD]Nicky Martin[/TD]
[TD]Matt Griffiths[/TD]
[TD]170[/TD]
[TD]p +?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Dominateur[/TD]
[TD]8 [/TD]
[TD]10-8 [/TD]
[TD]Oliver Sherwood[/TD]
[TD]Gavin Sheehan[/TD]
[TD]170[/TD]
[TD]nov jx[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Bobo Mac[/TD]
[TD]10 [/TD]
[TD]10-2 [/TD]
[TD]Tom Symonds[/TD]
[TD]A P Heskin[/TD]
[TD]169[/TD]
[TD]p +?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Yala Enki[/TD]
[TD]11 [/TD]
[TD]11-12 [/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls[/TD]
[TD]Bryony Frost[/TD]
[TD]168[/TD]
[TD]v[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Big River[/TD]
[TD]11 [/TD]
[TD]10-8 [/TD]
[TD]Lucinda Russell[/TD]
[TD]Derek Fox[/TD]
[TD]168[/TD]
[TD]p?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Captain Drake[/TD]
[TD]8 [/TD]
[TD]10-7 [/TD]
[TD]Harry Fry[/TD]
[TD]Bryan Carver 3[/TD]
[TD]168[/TD]
[TD]p Hd[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Prime Venture[/TD]
[TD]10 [/TD]
[TD]10-6 [/TD]
[TD]Evan Williams[/TD]
[TD]Tom O'Brien[/TD]
[TD]168[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Christmas In April[/TD]
[TD]9 [/TD]
[TD]10-3 [/TD]
[TD]Colin Tizzard[/TD]
[TD]Brendan Powell[/TD]
[TD]168[/TD]
[TD]? p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Ramses De Teillee[/TD]
[TD]9 [/TD]
[TD]11-6 [/TD]
[TD]David Pipe[/TD]
[TD]Tom Scudamore[/TD]
[TD]167[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Lord Du Mesnil[/TD]
[TD]8 [/TD]
[TD]11-5 [/TD]
[TD]Richard Hobson[/TD]
[TD]Paul O'Brien 3[/TD]
[TD]167[/TD]
[TD]+? p?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Cloudy Glen[/TD]
[TD]8 [/TD]
[TD]10-12 [/TD]
[TD]Venetia Williams[/TD]
[TD]Charlie Deutsch[/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] The Hollow Ginge[/TD]
[TD]8 [/TD]
[TD]10-11 [/TD]
[TD]Nigel Twiston-Davies[/TD]
[TD]Jamie Bargary[/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD]+?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Springfield Fox[/TD]
[TD]8 [/TD]
[TD]10-9 [/TD]
[TD]Tom George[/TD]
[TD]Sean Bowen[/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD]nov[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Calipso Collonges[/TD]
[TD]9 [/TD]
[TD]10-0 [/TD]
[TD]Olly Murphy[/TD]
[TD]Jack Tudor 3[/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Truckers Lodge[/TD]
[TD]9 [/TD]
[TD]11-8 [/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls[/TD]
[TD]Lorcan Williams 3[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Joe Farrell[/TD]
[TD]12 [/TD]
[TD]10-4 [/TD]
[TD]Rebecca Curtis[/TD]
[TD]James Best[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[TD][174v d][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

As I said elsewhere, I'm not sure VLR's Aintree form can be taken at face value. It's hard to believe he suddenly found a half a stone over his previous peak. I think it's more a case of the race falling in his lap on the day and the fact Scu sticks with RDT has to be a negative for VLR (although plenty on here will take the opposite view).

 

[wilsonl]

https://racingahead.net/news/6505/2020-welsh-grand-national-free-tips-and-trends/

My point is, you dropped the jolly out on the 12/18 stat but didn't drop Springfield Fox out on the 10-8 or less stat

Which following the pattern of the post would have ruled him out of further qualification.

 

[Slim]

Trends are a load of bollocks. Hope this helps.

 

[tiggers1972]

Trends are a load of bollocks. Hope this helps.

:lol::lol::lol:

 

[Desert Orchid]

The Diplomatic Corps lost out big style when Slim decided not to apply.

 

[Maxbet]

You mean it's not even your own work, Maxbet?

I'm indebted to a seldom [these days] seen forumite for highlighting one for the Welsh National and the reasoning is entirely sound.

The Synopsis is...

And all those horses didn't slot themselves into their various category's...

 

[Maxbet]

You mean it's not even your own work, Maxbet?

FWIW, these are my figures. I haven't laid out my thoughts in full as I plan to do that later today or this evening but I should point out that where I have 'nov', I add a notional 10lbs to allow for second-season possible/likely improvement. The likes of Secret Reprieve has already made significant second-season improvement, as his new OR implies.

Whether the likes of LDM can find that improvement I'm not so sure as he was running in open handicaps last spring but I certainly wouldn't want to rule out the possibility.

[TABLE="width: 500"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]Age[/TD]
[TD]Weight[/TD]
[TD]Trainer[/TD]
[TD]Jockey[/TD]
[TD]MON
173+[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Vieux Lion Rouge[/TD]
[TD]12 [/TD]
[TD]10-11 4ex [/TD]
[TD]David Pipe[/TD]
[TD]Conor O'Farrell[/TD]
[TD]174[/TD]
[TD]??[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Secret Reprieve[/TD]
[TD]7 [/TD]
[TD]10-1 4ex [/TD]
[TD]Evan Williams[/TD]
[TD]Adam Wedge[/TD]
[TD]174[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] The Two Amigos[/TD]
[TD]9 [/TD]
[TD]10-9 [/TD]
[TD]Nicky Martin[/TD]
[TD]Matt Griffiths[/TD]
[TD]170[/TD]
[TD]p +?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Dominateur[/TD]
[TD]8 [/TD]
[TD]10-8 [/TD]
[TD]Oliver Sherwood[/TD]
[TD]Gavin Sheehan[/TD]
[TD]170[/TD]
[TD]nov jx[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Bobo Mac[/TD]
[TD]10 [/TD]
[TD]10-2 [/TD]
[TD]Tom Symonds[/TD]
[TD]A P Heskin[/TD]
[TD]169[/TD]
[TD]p +?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Yala Enki[/TD]
[TD]11 [/TD]
[TD]11-12 [/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls[/TD]
[TD]Bryony Frost[/TD]
[TD]168[/TD]
[TD]v[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Big River[/TD]
[TD]11 [/TD]
[TD]10-8 [/TD]
[TD]Lucinda Russell[/TD]
[TD]Derek Fox[/TD]
[TD]168[/TD]
[TD]p?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Captain Drake[/TD]
[TD]8 [/TD]
[TD]10-7 [/TD]
[TD]Harry Fry[/TD]
[TD]Bryan Carver 3[/TD]
[TD]168[/TD]
[TD]p Hd[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Prime Venture[/TD]
[TD]10 [/TD]
[TD]10-6 [/TD]
[TD]Evan Williams[/TD]
[TD]Tom O'Brien[/TD]
[TD]168[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Christmas In April[/TD]
[TD]9 [/TD]
[TD]10-3 [/TD]
[TD]Colin Tizzard[/TD]
[TD]Brendan Powell[/TD]
[TD]168[/TD]
[TD]? p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Ramses De Teillee[/TD]
[TD]9 [/TD]
[TD]11-6 [/TD]
[TD]David Pipe[/TD]
[TD]Tom Scudamore[/TD]
[TD]167[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Lord Du Mesnil[/TD]
[TD]8 [/TD]
[TD]11-5 [/TD]
[TD]Richard Hobson[/TD]
[TD]Paul O'Brien 3[/TD]
[TD]167[/TD]
[TD]+? p?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Cloudy Glen[/TD]
[TD]8 [/TD]
[TD]10-12 [/TD]
[TD]Venetia Williams[/TD]
[TD]Charlie Deutsch[/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] The Hollow Ginge[/TD]
[TD]8 [/TD]
[TD]10-11 [/TD]
[TD]Nigel Twiston-Davies[/TD]
[TD]Jamie Bargary[/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD]+?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Springfield Fox[/TD]
[TD]8 [/TD]
[TD]10-9 [/TD]
[TD]Tom George[/TD]
[TD]Sean Bowen[/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD]nov[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Calipso Collonges[/TD]
[TD]9 [/TD]
[TD]10-0 [/TD]
[TD]Olly Murphy[/TD]
[TD]Jack Tudor 3[/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Truckers Lodge[/TD]
[TD]9 [/TD]
[TD]11-8 [/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls[/TD]
[TD]Lorcan Williams 3[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Joe Farrell[/TD]
[TD]12 [/TD]
[TD]10-4 [/TD]
[TD]Rebecca Curtis[/TD]
[TD]James Best[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[TD][174v d][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

As I said elsewhere, I'm not sure VLR's Aintree form can be taken at face value. It's hard to believe he suddenly found a half a stone over his previous peak. I think it's more a case of the race falling in his lap on the day and the fact Scu sticks with RDT has to be a negative for VLR (although plenty on here will take the opposite view).

Awful lot of P's there DO...So what your saying is, any one of them could improve enough to win...

Combination F/C and T/C on the bottom 4 their DO...Ladbroke Trophy

 

[Desert Orchid]

The Synopsis is...

And all those horses didn't slot themselves into their various category's...

Not sure of the point you're trying to score there, Maxbet. Perhaps once your grammar improves you'll communicate better but if you're suggesting I didn't pick SP myself then I'm guilty.

The forumite contacted me because he knew I wasn't following the form as closely as normal because of problems with my eyes but he knows my MO well enough to highlight one I would have landed on eventually, just as I have regularly done and posted on here with horses officially well in.

You obviously have enough time on your hand to back-check for what I wrote 20 years ago so you would also know that I would have posted SP on here at some point as a potential winner.

I'm indebted to the forumite for it and for getting the longer price.

Awful lot of P's there DO...So what your saying is, any one of them could improve enough to win...

Absolutely. This game is about trying to assess the relative chances of every runner. It would foolhardy in the extreme to not to do so. My goal is to narrow the field down to those with what I believe have the best chances balanced against the best odds on offer.

I'm surprised you appear to have a problem with that.

In an average 26-runner Wokingham I would expect 16 to have a 'p' or better. That's the nature of these big races: young horses on the up trying to outdo each other and those whose form is at a plateau.

Combination F/C and T/C on the bottom 4 their DO...Ladbroke Trophy

Can't help another wee dig, can you, Maxbet? That's a problem you're going to have to find the solution to yourself. I'll be very pleased for you if one of the combos pays off

 

[Outsider]

You mean it's not even your own work, Maxbet?

FWIW, these are my figures. I haven't laid out my thoughts in full as I plan to do that later today or this evening but I should point out that where I have 'nov', I add a notional 10lbs to allow for second-season possible/likely improvement. The likes of Secret Reprieve has already made significant second-season improvement, as his new OR implies.

Whether the likes of LDM can find that improvement I'm not so sure as he was running in open handicaps last spring but I certainly wouldn't want to rule out the possibility.

[TABLE="width: 500"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]Age[/TD]
[TD]Weight[/TD]
[TD]Trainer[/TD]
[TD]Jockey[/TD]
[TD]MON
173+[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Vieux Lion Rouge[/TD]
[TD]12 [/TD]
[TD]10-11 4ex [/TD]
[TD]David Pipe[/TD]
[TD]Conor O'Farrell[/TD]
[TD]174[/TD]
[TD]??[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Secret Reprieve[/TD]
[TD]7 [/TD]
[TD]10-1 4ex [/TD]
[TD]Evan Williams[/TD]
[TD]Adam Wedge[/TD]
[TD]174[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] The Two Amigos[/TD]
[TD]9 [/TD]
[TD]10-9 [/TD]
[TD]Nicky Martin[/TD]
[TD]Matt Griffiths[/TD]
[TD]170[/TD]
[TD]p +?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Dominateur[/TD]
[TD]8 [/TD]
[TD]10-8 [/TD]
[TD]Oliver Sherwood[/TD]
[TD]Gavin Sheehan[/TD]
[TD]170[/TD]
[TD]nov jx[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Bobo Mac[/TD]
[TD]10 [/TD]
[TD]10-2 [/TD]
[TD]Tom Symonds[/TD]
[TD]A P Heskin[/TD]
[TD]169[/TD]
[TD]p +?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Yala Enki[/TD]
[TD]11 [/TD]
[TD]11-12 [/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls[/TD]
[TD]Bryony Frost[/TD]
[TD]168[/TD]
[TD]v[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Big River[/TD]
[TD]11 [/TD]
[TD]10-8 [/TD]
[TD]Lucinda Russell[/TD]
[TD]Derek Fox[/TD]
[TD]168[/TD]
[TD]p?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Captain Drake[/TD]
[TD]8 [/TD]
[TD]10-7 [/TD]
[TD]Harry Fry[/TD]
[TD]Bryan Carver 3[/TD]
[TD]168[/TD]
[TD]p Hd[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Prime Venture[/TD]
[TD]10 [/TD]
[TD]10-6 [/TD]
[TD]Evan Williams[/TD]
[TD]Tom O'Brien[/TD]
[TD]168[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Christmas In April[/TD]
[TD]9 [/TD]
[TD]10-3 [/TD]
[TD]Colin Tizzard[/TD]
[TD]Brendan Powell[/TD]
[TD]168[/TD]
[TD]? p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Ramses De Teillee[/TD]
[TD]9 [/TD]
[TD]11-6 [/TD]
[TD]David Pipe[/TD]
[TD]Tom Scudamore[/TD]
[TD]167[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Lord Du Mesnil[/TD]
[TD]8 [/TD]
[TD]11-5 [/TD]
[TD]Richard Hobson[/TD]
[TD]Paul O'Brien 3[/TD]
[TD]167[/TD]
[TD]+? p?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Cloudy Glen[/TD]
[TD]8 [/TD]
[TD]10-12 [/TD]
[TD]Venetia Williams[/TD]
[TD]Charlie Deutsch[/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] The Hollow Ginge[/TD]
[TD]8 [/TD]
[TD]10-11 [/TD]
[TD]Nigel Twiston-Davies[/TD]
[TD]Jamie Bargary[/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD]+?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Springfield Fox[/TD]
[TD]8 [/TD]
[TD]10-9 [/TD]
[TD]Tom George[/TD]
[TD]Sean Bowen[/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD]nov[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Calipso Collonges[/TD]
[TD]9 [/TD]
[TD]10-0 [/TD]
[TD]Olly Murphy[/TD]
[TD]Jack Tudor 3[/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Truckers Lodge[/TD]
[TD]9 [/TD]
[TD]11-8 [/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls[/TD]
[TD]Lorcan Williams 3[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Joe Farrell[/TD]
[TD]12 [/TD]
[TD]10-4 [/TD]
[TD]Rebecca Curtis[/TD]
[TD]James Best[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[TD][174v d][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

As I said elsewhere, I'm not sure VLR's Aintree form can be taken at face value. It's hard to believe he suddenly found a half a stone over his previous peak. I think it's more a case of the race falling in his lap on the day and the fact Scu sticks with RDT has to be a negative for VLR (although plenty on here will take the opposite view).

VLRs win at aintree was his lowest mark since his first chase.

 

[moe]

What are the chances of the race going ahead? I need to prepare myself for a disappointment tomorrow. Will some of the horses get there? I’ve backed Big River (because I always back him) but the roads up north are bad at the moment. Which horses are guaranteed to get there. Didn’t NTD walk Bindaree across the bridge one year?

 

[Slim]

Last I saw it looked good, am I wrong?

 

[Double J]

Theyre very hopeful it’ll be on.

Of the 3 think Wincanton will probably go.

 

[Slim]

The National and the juvenile hurdle probably the two races of the day.

 

[wilsonl]

Kempton wouldn’t surprise me. I’m half hour away and it’s f****ng freezing outside

 

[Desert Orchid]

VLRs win at aintree was his lowest mark since his first chase.

Yes, but even his previous best didn't entitle him to win the way he did. He was held up off a fast pace and came through as the others hit their wall.

I won't mind if he wins as I took the 20/1 midweek but that's just to cover the chance that the official handicapper has judged him accurately. I'm not convinced but I'm open-minded enough to accept the possibility.

 

[Desert Orchid]

The National and the juvenile hurdle probably the two races of the day.

Wouldn't be difficult.

Apart from those two races the prize money is pish. I can't see many hoses busting a gut for the money on offer in the other races.

A Relkeel Hurdle worth only £17k to the winner?

A Lanzarote worth only £16?

Even if I had a horse good enough to win one of those races I'd skip it on a point of principle.

 

[luckyme]

Borrowed from another


3:10 Chepstow – Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
This famous National’s roll of honour is packed full of famous stayers including Synchronised, Native River and Elegant Escape over the last ten years alone. It’s also a race where there are plenty of solid trends to refer to when looking for the winner.

Firstly, the 10/10 trends in terms of the last decade’s winners start with all having had two or more runs in the current season and, as an extension of this, all having run within the last 49 days. Only one of the runners hasn’t run in that period of time – Truckers Lodge – but there are a fair few who have not had the two runs yet this season and are banking on freshness helping them, including the likes of Dominateur, Springfield Fox, Big River, Prime Venture and Bobo Mac.

Another set of perfect trends refers to a horse’s chasing experience – all of the last ten winners have run at least five times over fences, something only Springfield Fox falls foul of here, but those ten winners also had won at least twice over the larger obstacles as well. Favourite, Secret Reprieve, may be well-in, but he’s only got the one win over fences to his name, as do Captain Drake, Prime Venture and Bobo Mac.

Age-wise, recent runnings of the race have skewed the stats somewhat with eleven and 13-year-old winners in the last five years, but the 6-8yo age range still contributes 70% of the last decade’s winners and that’s still the best bunch to focus on as it features the unexposed sorts who are still improving and have the required experience for a race of this nature. Most of the horses running in this year’s renewal do fit into that bracket, but veterans Vieux Lion Rouge, Joe Farrell, Yala Enki, Big River, Prime Venture and Bobo Mac miss out on a point here.

Apart from the three I mentioned at the top of the article, who were all Graded-class horses running in a handicap, all the other winners of the race have carried 10st 10lb or less to victory and that’s no big surprise given the prevailing conditions that traditionally accompany this race. With none of Yala Enki, Truckers Lodge, Ramses De Teillee or Lord Du Mesnil looking to be in the same class as those aforementioned horses to win carrying more, it’s a black mark for them, as well as Moyhenna, Cloudy Glen, Vieux Lion Rouge and The Hollow Ginge, who carry just over the 10st 10lb threshold.

While sometimes the weight carried is relative to the class of the other horses in the field, the ratings paint a similar picture – bar those three winners, all the others were rated from 145 down to 128, so points are given from Cloudy Glen down to Calipso Collonges in racecard order.

Finally, while many handicap chases over extreme trips spring surprises as a regular occurrence, this race seems to be swimming against that particular tide, with only two winners in the last decade having an SP of more than 10/1 – even then, they were no bigger than 20/1. Therefore, it’s definitely wise to focus on those towards the head of the market, including favourite, Secret Reprieve, Springfield Fox, Truckers Lodge, Christmas In April, Yala Enki and The Two Amigos, who all have quotes of 10/1 or less in the markets at the time of writing.



Shortlist:
THE TWO AMIGOS – 8/8
Secret Reprieve – 7/8
Christmas In April – 7/8
Cloudy Glen – 6/8



Conclusion:
Just one horse bullseyes all eight of our key trends this year and Nicky Martin’s THE TWO AMIGOS is the headline selection for the shortlist. Last seen chasing home the ante post favourite for this race, Secret Reprieve (more on him in a sec), in the Welsh Grand National Trial, this consistent eight-year-old was in fact fifth in the race last year from exactly the same mark that he’ll race off this year – 142. Experience of this type of scenario and a love of very soft ground is invaluable for the Welsh National and you’ll certainly get a run for your money with this solid-jumping front runner. Looking at the pace maps for this race, it’s even possible that he could get something of a freebie out on the front, with only Yala Enki really to keep him company. Although THE TWO AMIGOS was seven and a half lengths behind that rival last year, there’s a 4lb swing in the weights in his favour (plus a 14lb swing with the second, Truckers Lodge and a 4lb swing with the fourth, Prime Venture), so he looks an incredibly solid bet to go well again after showing himself to be in excellent form in his two placed runs this season so far.

Secret Reprieve was very impressive in that Grand National Trial and is a confirmed heavy-ground loving stayer for Evan Williams. He gets in here with just a 4lb penalty for that and is effectively 8lb well in, so there is every chance that he will go in again, as the market suggests. He may not have that much experience or winning form in terms of past Welsh National winners, but he’s hugely unexposed and looks to be suited by this kind of race, even if the extra six furlongs is an unknown for the six-year-old. Still, he carries very little weight and if he jumps well, he’ll be hard to keep out of the frame in the famous Rucker colours.

Colin Tizzard has won two of the last four runnings of this and his representative this year is Christmas In April, who has already put plenty of solid form together in regional Nationals in the past 12 months. He won the Sussex National at Plumpton in January before taking February’s Devon National at Exeter in superb style from a mark of 129. He may be 7lb higher now, but a good second behind Cloudy Glen off 137 in the Southern National at Fontwell shows he’s still in good form from his higher mark and the handicapper has generously dropped him a pound since. He’s by Crillon, so the ground couldn’t be soft enough for him, and he jumps and stays, so off a light weight, he can play a hand.

Speaking of Cloudy Glen, he makes up our shortlist from the seven horses all level on six out of eight trends boxes ticked. He misses out on the weight and price trends, but only by fine margins, so he’s included here. Venetia Williams’ charge put in a superb performance to hammer Christmas In April in the Southern National when 12lb better off with that rival, but even though that swing in the weights could bring them much closer, there was a 13-length gap between the pair that day and he won on the bridle, having loads left close home, so he could well confirm the form despite the weights rise. Even though he disappointed a little when subsequently fifth from his new mark of 145 at Sandown Park next time in the London National, he leapt out to his left on multiple occasions and this return to a left-handed circuit should see him perform much better. He enjoys deep ground, is unexposed at this trip still and could well have more improvement under his bonnet at the age of seven for a trainer who knows how to ready a good one for these staying tests – Williams won this in 2015 with Emperor’s Choice and Cloudy Glen certainly has the scope and potential to be a better horse, so looks a big chance here.