I wonder is that being overlooked by punters.
Welsh National
- Thread starter Maxbet
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I wonder is that being overlooked by punters.
Tom George said Lanzarote was worth more in 2002 when he won it than it is today :blink:
Just looked it up. The Lanzarote was worth £16 less in 1995...
That’s absolutely staggering.
Why’s the prize money dwindled so much? Is it cause of the amount of graded races now?
Still no idea how horses are going for half a million when most won’t even earn that in prize money throughout their career.
Desert Orchid
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I think it's as much to do with there being less money around due to Covid. I think I read somewhere that tracks tend to reinvest gate money etc into prizes so they've been hit quite hard.
I checked the recent prize money earlier when I was studying the race. The last couple of years it was £26k to the winner, the couple of years before that it was £23k so to drop to £16k in one year is a lot.
It's sponsored by Ladbrokes so they're pretty much getting free advertising out of the sponsorship. The racecourse should have told them to fvck right off.
I don't think the punters are taking too much notice but it's certainly affected the amount of races I bet in. I've dropped from six or seven races on a Saturday (not counting the fun longshots) to two, three tops and find I'm sometimes not bothering at all with bets.
Races that were worth £20k are now worth maybe £16k, £50k now worth £26k.
Some of the bigger races are holding up well, eg the big 3m handicaps at Ascot and the middle-distance ones at Cheltenham. The form in these is holding up well. The lower value races are becoming non-triers' conventions.
I checked the recent prize money earlier when I was studying the race. The last couple of years it was £26k to the winner, the couple of years before that it was £23k so to drop to £16k in one year is a lot.
It's sponsored by Ladbrokes so they're pretty much getting free advertising out of the sponsorship. The racecourse should have told them to fvck right off.
I don't think the punters are taking too much notice but it's certainly affected the amount of races I bet in. I've dropped from six or seven races on a Saturday (not counting the fun longshots) to two, three tops and find I'm sometimes not bothering at all with bets.
Races that were worth £20k are now worth maybe £16k, £50k now worth £26k.
Some of the bigger races are holding up well, eg the big 3m handicaps at Ascot and the middle-distance ones at Cheltenham. The form in these is holding up well. The lower value races are becoming non-triers' conventions.
Beef or Salmon
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Fair play DO nice touch
Desert Orchid
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Can't be unhappy with that.
G-G
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Great for the winning connections but what a star Yala Enki is. Lumping top weight, ran an absolute blinder - again.
Desert Orchid
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Used in isolation that's true.
Take Springfield Fox as an example. I bet him over hurdles last time and he looked a right good bet to turnover a fav that hadn't 'done it' yet. SF ran to his mark and was well beat by a progressive horse. I didn't see how this translated into being second fav for the Welsh National (he was backed from 14s after that run).
So trends are nice but at the end of the day the horse with two stone in hand usually wins
The race was a precession but this year's winner will only help you next year by coincidence.
The most obvious trend concerns the weight carried by the winner. Start your search for the winner at the bottom of the weights and work your way up. Stop when you have found a plausible candidate, there's usually no need to go any further, especially if it has a Welsh connection. Simple really.
Desert Orchid
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If people don't have the time or inclination (or without wishing to offend anyone, the skills) to analyse form based on collateral lines, weight, times, etc, etc, then I can understand why trends can be seen as a useful tool even though I often dismiss them.
They are a more sensible method of selection than guessing and pinsticking.
I've seen trends say things like the winner was rated 140-155 in races when every runner fell into that category.
I'm very guilty of responding to 'trendsists' by saying the only trend that matters is that the winner is always well-handicapped, regardless of weight carried.
Simon Rowlands used trends to arrive at Secret Reprieve but his analyses use different criteria to the lazy ones often cited. The main one he appeared to rely on for this race was the percentage of rivals beaten by horses rated within one or two pounds of the top by Timeform. In other words, the best handicapped!
In recent years I had both Elegant Escape (11-08) and Native River (11-12) top-rated, ie the best-handicapped in the race. The latter got into the race without a penalty for winning the Hennessy of all races!
Looking for lower weights in marathon handicaps makes perfect sense for reasons that involve the laws of physics but they don't win the Welsh National just because they're carrying a light weight. There were seven horses on Saturday carrying 10-7 or less. Four of them finished in the first six but you wouldn't have made a profit backing all seven.
It's fair to say Secret Reprieve was a bit of a no-brainer. The official handicapper told us as much. Whatever price he was was the odds about his staying the trip and having a trouble-free run. His SP of 5/2 suggested it was 2/5 he wouldn't win. I thought his chances were better than that.
In this case, trends were no more than a happy coincidence.
They are a more sensible method of selection than guessing and pinsticking.
I've seen trends say things like the winner was rated 140-155 in races when every runner fell into that category.
I'm very guilty of responding to 'trendsists' by saying the only trend that matters is that the winner is always well-handicapped, regardless of weight carried.
Simon Rowlands used trends to arrive at Secret Reprieve but his analyses use different criteria to the lazy ones often cited. The main one he appeared to rely on for this race was the percentage of rivals beaten by horses rated within one or two pounds of the top by Timeform. In other words, the best handicapped!
In recent years I had both Elegant Escape (11-08) and Native River (11-12) top-rated, ie the best-handicapped in the race. The latter got into the race without a penalty for winning the Hennessy of all races!
Looking for lower weights in marathon handicaps makes perfect sense for reasons that involve the laws of physics but they don't win the Welsh National just because they're carrying a light weight. There were seven horses on Saturday carrying 10-7 or less. Four of them finished in the first six but you wouldn't have made a profit backing all seven.
It's fair to say Secret Reprieve was a bit of a no-brainer. The official handicapper told us as much. Whatever price he was was the odds about his staying the trip and having a trouble-free run. His SP of 5/2 suggested it was 2/5 he wouldn't win. I thought his chances were better than that.
In this case, trends were no more than a happy coincidence.
Since 1990 there have been 16 wins in the race by horses carrying less than 10-7, which is a disproportionate number. Only very high quality horses are capable of winning it with more than 11-0. Here is the list since 1990: Carvill's Hill, Master Oats, Halcon Genelardais, Synchronised, Native River, Elegant Escape. In other words you have to be Gold Cup standard to give the weight away in this race.
Desert Orchid
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... which also means those horses were well handicapped despite their high weight.
Desert Orchid
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Secret Reprieve has been bumped up another 2lbs for his win.
So too has Yala Enki for his great run under top weight.
There was talk immediately after the race about SP and the National. I would be surprised if they went down that route this season as he's only just turned seven and will need to go up another few pounds to have any chance of making the cut. Maybe one of the lesser ones this season (Ayr likely to be fast ground) in soft ground and Aintree in 2022?
So too has Yala Enki for his great run under top weight.
There was talk immediately after the race about SP and the National. I would be surprised if they went down that route this season as he's only just turned seven and will need to go up another few pounds to have any chance of making the cut. Maybe one of the lesser ones this season (Ayr likely to be fast ground) in soft ground and Aintree in 2022?
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tiggers1972
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Think Secret Reprieve is still very well handicapped, considering he had issues with tack in the race, if that didn't happen he'd have been hammered with significantly more than a 2lb rise.
Desert Orchid
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I'm not so sure, tiggers.
The 2lbs is on top of the 8lbs he was going up anyway. At the marathon trips in soft those 10lbs are worth about 20 lengths so if you go back 20 lengths from where he finished on Saturday you're behind Lord Du Mesnil, in 10th place.
I say that merely to illustrate starkly the worst-case scenario of his new mark (as well as to reiterate how well in he was on the day). I think he is better than the bare form and clearly on a curve.
I don't buy into the tack issue, though. After watching the race again and at the horse after the race, the damage looked superficial and the jockey made no reference to its having been an issue for him. The saddle looked still in place to me - happy to be corrected by anyone who has a better eye for that kind of thing - and I don't think it affected the horse or jockey's performance.
Much will depend on how steeply his curve remains but he's likely to be over-bet in the near future and possibly opposable but I'm happy to wait and see.
The 2lbs is on top of the 8lbs he was going up anyway. At the marathon trips in soft those 10lbs are worth about 20 lengths so if you go back 20 lengths from where he finished on Saturday you're behind Lord Du Mesnil, in 10th place.
I say that merely to illustrate starkly the worst-case scenario of his new mark (as well as to reiterate how well in he was on the day). I think he is better than the bare form and clearly on a curve.
I don't buy into the tack issue, though. After watching the race again and at the horse after the race, the damage looked superficial and the jockey made no reference to its having been an issue for him. The saddle looked still in place to me - happy to be corrected by anyone who has a better eye for that kind of thing - and I don't think it affected the horse or jockey's performance.
Much will depend on how steeply his curve remains but he's likely to be over-bet in the near future and possibly opposable but I'm happy to wait and see.