What are you backing Today? Part 2

Sedgefield there's been a big drift on Chemical Warfare 11/4 from 6/4.

Considering the man danger Seam Ogg 13/8 is a non runner seems crazy to me
 
I think the commentator filled his boots "why would anyone back against this in form horse" he said as he crossed the line 6 lengths clear 5/2....plenty 3/1 on bfe
 
4.05 Ludlow
A recent outing over hurdles should put La Renommee spot on for this. She skied a few of her hurdles then and seemed to be hampered a couple of times from 2 out in that run so I’m marking the effort up. 3/1 seems very fair
 
viking said:
4.05 Ludlow
A recent outing over hurdles should put La Renommee spot on for this. She skied a few of her hurdles then and seemed to be hampered a couple of times from 2 out in that run so I’m marking the effort up. 3/1 seems very fair
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Easy money ,nice one
 
I watched both Florencethemachin and Magical Express who both go chasing today at Exeter. The former was clear fav but I much preferred Magical Express
 
Alright lads Jumps season is about to start getting underway properly I've had a little look at the Silver trophy at Chepstow and been through each runner, its certainly no better than other things you'll read elsewhere. I'm rusty as hell having been away from the game since early 2019 but I have to start somewhere and this is at least a starting point to writing again and at least starting to get my head back in the form books. Make of it what you will.


Well decs are out and down to 18 runners Mighty bandit is out and takes up his engagement in the juvenile handicap and Deep Cave is also out glad to have both out of the way as both we're difficult to assess and we're both potential flies in the ointment. Lowrys bar and Tune in the box both still there I'd have a slight preference for Lowry's just down to his trainer's record and Tune in the box has shown his hand to the handicapper a little more at this moment in time. However from glancing through its clear already I'm probably wasting my time with this race as it looks a very good and super competitive renewal and I feel this race will produce a fair few future winners whatever the result it might end up being a strong bit of form. I'm gonna plod on with it regardless go through the rest of the field and see what I come up with.

Crebilly heads the weights for Jonjo and JP. Reverts back to hurdles after a season Chasing last year a highlight of which was 2nd in the Plate at the Festival having jumped less than fluently. That's a pretty solid effort off 140 comes back to hurdling off a 2lb lower mark than that no problem with soft ground, the trip or the course all seem to suit him judged on previous form. He also won his maiden by 21 lengths after 277 days off the track so can also be produced fresh if needs be. He's one of JP's so is he a goer ? Well if they plan to go back chasing with him then this is a nice prize to pick up en route. If he's one they are aiming at a handicap hurdle later in the season then who knows. Without any shenanigans he's a massive player here.

Tritonic Alan King has sent 16 to this race without a winner in the last 20 years. Tritonic spends most of his time back on the flat these days, he'll be fit is about the biggest positive I can say for him. He has decent bits and bobs of form and could run a race but from what I've seen of him I'd be tempted to be running him over 3 miles myself.

Take no chances the first of Skeltons runners and he had 9 in it at the 5 day stage so the ones he's left in certainly deserve a second look. Take no chances makes little appeal though. He's been very progressive over 3 mile but the last time he was over this sort of trip he was beat 6 lengths by a horse who's gone on to be rated 125. Thanks to his antics over 3 miles the handicapper has took no chances and has him off 136 here. Couldn't rule him out but with the drop in trip not sure to suit and this being as hot a race as it is I'd be removing the horses first name.

Lucky Zebo a fecking dirty Irish raider and no doubt de bromhead hasn't sent him over for fun. After winning 2 small handicaps over there over hurdles was found wanting in a lot more competitive event off a mark of 132. English handicapper puts him off 135 so he holds e/w claims however inbetween his last hurdle performance he's had a couple of try's over the larger obstacles and has been beaten out of sight on both attempts the jockey claiming in one race he was favourite for that the horse never trallvelled. So looks out of sorts and this race is as tough as the hurdle he was beaten in if not tougher.

Lowrys bar Well Phillip Hobbs has won this 4 times in the last 20 years so it'd be foolish not to give his runners a 2nd glance. Lowry's bar is an obvious one hasn't really put a foot wrong. His victory over CD against Uncle Bert was fairly easy and Uncle Bert went on to win his next 2 starts in decisive fashion and got himself raised another 11lbs. Lowrys bar however only raced once more, at Exeter and got beat by 200/1 shot Absolute steel they were 15 lengths clear of their nearest pursuer. Whilst it was a shock defeat and Absolute steel hasn't done much afterwards Lowrys was reported to have bled from the nose and lost a shoe. The handicapper reacted by dropping him 2 pounds which makes him looks very well handicapped considering how easily he'd beaten uncle bert. That one loss to Absolute steel was the only blot on his copybook having won his other for starts last season. Given that he has a reasonable excuse for not winning that day otherwise he's looked like a really nice progressive type and given his trainers record in this race you'd expect him to be a major player.

Afaadil For the fat controller. Last 4 races have been off this mark and hasn't worried the judge once. Those were all over 2 miles. Has tried trips over 2 and a half mile before off lower marks and been beaten. So without a sprinkle of the Nicholls magic fairy dust its hard to see him being involved here.

Act of Authority. Finished last season with a creditable 6th in the 50k novice championship final outpaced staying on on good ground he's ran 3 times over hurdle on soft ground and won all 3. The last of those 3 over Saturdays trip. Top trainer top jockey whats not to like. Serious player.

Tighten our belts seems like a genuine no hoper. Only prayer being that the ground changes his form last time he had soft ground he won his maiden by 18 lengths. Highly tried over fences to no real avail although his best performance by far was first time up last season winning a class 3 novice chase by 10 lengths so can go well fresh but we're clutching at straws here.

Irish Hill might be one for next time out as has usually improved for a run. He's floated around off his current mark of 125 up to as high as 134 so he's getting nearer to winning I can't see him winning this on Saturday but if he gets dropped another couple of pounds he's gonna start looking likely in the coming months a nice enough type.

Into the park- Looked a nice enough type last year progressing steadily but was found wanting off a mark 1lb higher than this in a lesser event at the end of last season so unless he's improved mightily during the off season he'll struggle here and despite Hobbs record in this race surely his hopes of Landing it lie solely with Lowrys Bar.

American Sniper Might be another to look at in the coming month or so. Hasn't run well on last years seasonal debut or the race after that. Then won a Cheltenham handicap in first time pieces off a mark of 122. He's off 125 here headgear left off although he has had a wind op. My feeling is run around here dropped a couple of pounds headgear back on for Cheltenham.

Jipcot Certainly looks like stables 2nd string. Decent 3rd in imperial cup still only 7 hurdle starts so open to improvement but 2 previous tries at this trip didn't result in victory and this is tougher.

Titan Discovery and Doyen quest I'll pitch these pair in together as they finished off last season against each other. Both progressed a lot last season and there wasn't a lot between them at Cheltenham with Doyen quest just getting there better of it. If I had to have a match bet this time I'd have to side with Titan. Turning in he was going by far the best. They are dropping back a furlong on Saturday and no Cheltenham hill plus the softer ground may be more in his favour and has a 3lb pull at the weights. They both hold a decent chance, have they shown their hands more than a Lowrys bar type possibly so but leading players none the less.

Josh the boss This is one I nearly got rid of straight away but I've had a bit of a rethink NTD normally has a good start to the season and by todays figures has a 38% strike rate in the last 14 days from 24 runners so he's off to his usual flyer. Josh the boss was disputing 2nd when crashing out at the last in a grd 2 novices over this trip on heavy ground last winter, granted 1st and 2nd there have only gone on to be rated 130ish but he's here with a trainer in form. A mark of 124, his owner in the saddle taking 7lb off and holds a 14% strike rate as a claimer. JTB also won first time up last year (only a maiden but by quite a distance) . So I'm not sure what price he will be but could be a lively outsider.

Tune in a box is another super progressive one from last term won on his last start a handicap over this distance at Punchestown and got absolutely whacked by the handicapper 15lb but it seems fully deserved. In a field of 24 with the winning distances 8,8,11,15 he's strung them out good and proper so the rise is fair enough. The main thing i like about him is despite showing that toe over this trip, one of his defeats last year was over 3mile in heavy ground at FFos las where he finished a close 2nd. He also holds victory's over 3mile in soft and 2m5f on soft so he's going to have no problems with conditions here and he certainly shouldn't be lacking stamina at the finish. The one off putting thing is his first 2 runs last season after the break we're not just bad they were awful now whether there was a genuine reason for his upturn in form and his winning streak I don't know or was it a case of it took a couple of runs to get him straight. Seems like more than that to me but Lacey certainly found the key to him and again he's a leading player.
 
Patriotik Evan Williams won this twice with Court Minstrel if memory serves. On all of his Novice form he doesn't look good enough. Best by a horse rated 3lbs inferior in receipt of 3lbs from it. On his Novice closest to Saturdays conditions he win by 6 lengths getting 12lb from a 120 rated horse. he's off 122 here doesn't scream winner.

Forever William moved from King to Skelton and he's given him one run to blow off the cobwebs under Saturdays claimer Hiedi Palin a sort of getting to know you run by the looks. Horse has won 2 lesser events off a 1lb higher mark over this sort of trip including one on soft ground. He's gonna have the advantage of only carrying 10-3 dead weight in what is likely to be testing conditions. Again might be a lively outsider, I'd be disappointed if there isn't something better in this field but having said that out of Skeltons 9 original entries this might be his best hope on the day.
 
I'd mentioned at the beginning of that a horse that I'd looked at when there was 29 entries he now runs in the juvenile handicap on the same card he might be one to keep an eye on . These we're my thoughts on him at that time.

I just thought I'd have a quick look through and I'm about half way through the 29 entries for the Silver hurdle I've spotted a few likely sorts in the shape of Act of Authority, Titan Discovery and Flying Fortune but the first one I thought interesting enough to post about is The Mighty Bandit. Won his maiden by 9 lengths from Lark in the morning who went on to win the Fred winter/Boodles at the festival and beaten 17 lengths in third that day was Harsh who went on to win at the Punchestown festival. So a great start to his racing career but it then went downhill. On his next start he was beaten, the Vet reported Nasal discharge, he's then been sent for a breathing op (the horse not the Vet) and switched from Gordon Elliot to Warren Greatrex . Warren then sent him to the Triumph where he pulled up and then didn't fair much better in a novice race at Punchestown, both times he was travelling but faded badly. He's then been sent for a second breathing op before going on a flat campaign. He's run reasonably without pulling up trees he won a maiden then ran awful at Newmarket which is forgivable as the track doesn't suit all but having been stepped up to 12f his next 2 efforts were fairly decent but its more the race comments I'm interested in.

Prominent on inner, pushed along over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on and went third final 110yds (op 10/1)

Raced in second, led 3f out, headed 2f out, rallied inside final furlong, went second again towards finish, just held (tchd 7/4)

Sounds like a horse who's over whatever the breathing issue was that he had. Gets an opening mark of 130 which would seem more than fair based on his maiden and he'll also have the advantage of being one of the few who will be race fit as only 5 of the 29 entries have had a recent run. A key might just be if he holds his entry. Warren also has him entered on the same card against his own age group so if he decides to go for the bigger prize first time up then it might suggest Warren thinks his mark is pretty good too and doesn't want to waste it running for a pot 1/3 of the size against his own age group.

As said its only an initial thought after a cursory glance but I thought it interesting enough to mention. Will add more as I go through things this week.
 
At Newmarket, I’m a big Dreamy fan but it’s noticeable that Moore has jumped ship onto January who they obviously feel is sharper for this race. AOB not afraid to get one beaten only for it to come good the following season and I suspect he feels Dreamy needs the experience still.
 
Going all out on Amiloch at Haydock..my one worry is he needed every yard of 1m at Kempton when given loads to do..My hope is he's ridden closer to the pace and doesn't allow some unknown to get first run on him....happy punting all
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My nap was a NR but I had a good bet on Hey Sunshine at 10/11. The reason I mention this.......imagine how sick I was when he drifted like a barge to 7/2.....2 out he was so far behind the new hot fav and going nowhere s0 I gave up and turned the video off.......how it won I have no idea...cant wait to see the replay ;)
 
Here's a tip for everyone. Do not fall asleep when using your mobile phone for betting. I woke up and had backed Eastmore 51pounds @46/1 with no cash out available..tried to save some but they were off and running before I could do anything never went below 100 to lay in running...we live and learn😭
 
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