What are you backing Today? Part 2
- Thread starter dvds2000
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I'm having a bet on Thedevilscoachman in Punchestowns 2.05 tomorrow.
It feels like he's been around for ages, but he's still only an 8 year old, though that won't last long with 2025 fast approaching.
That said, he's only had 9 hurdle starts, winning four of them. His record first time out, or after a break, reads 11311173, which isn't too bad at all.
Yes, most of his form is on soft or heavy, but I don't know if that's by design, or just by the fact, he's just not had the chance to run on this going before. He's not up to Cheltenham Festival class anyway, and I reckon he's swerved that due to not being good enough, rather than the likely better ground he'd face in March.
I've looked for clues in the breeding. His sire Elusive Pimpernal showed his best form on the flat on good to firm, and his grandsire Selkirk had form on the flat on decent going aswell.
So I'll chance The Devil at the price he is. I emphasise, I'm not trying to be a clever dick saying he might act on yielding, when all his form is on soft, but you can see where I'm coming from, in that he's'hardly ever raced or had the chance to prove he can handle better ground. If he had no chance you'd hope Noel Meade would pull him out and save me the conundrum.
As per usual, I reserve the right to talk absolute shite, but I'll take my chance anyway.
It feels like he's been around for ages, but he's still only an 8 year old, though that won't last long with 2025 fast approaching.
That said, he's only had 9 hurdle starts, winning four of them. His record first time out, or after a break, reads 11311173, which isn't too bad at all.
Yes, most of his form is on soft or heavy, but I don't know if that's by design, or just by the fact, he's just not had the chance to run on this going before. He's not up to Cheltenham Festival class anyway, and I reckon he's swerved that due to not being good enough, rather than the likely better ground he'd face in March.
I've looked for clues in the breeding. His sire Elusive Pimpernal showed his best form on the flat on good to firm, and his grandsire Selkirk had form on the flat on decent going aswell.
So I'll chance The Devil at the price he is. I emphasise, I'm not trying to be a clever dick saying he might act on yielding, when all his form is on soft, but you can see where I'm coming from, in that he's'hardly ever raced or had the chance to prove he can handle better ground. If he had no chance you'd hope Noel Meade would pull him out and save me the conundrum.
As per usual, I reserve the right to talk absolute shite, but I'll take my chance anyway.
It's funny but those two sires are ones I associate with soft ground. The horse's race record suggests this too, don't you think?
Not for me to say, really. If you fancy it, you fancy it, end of.
I hear you, Yorick.
I'm not a progeny breeding expert by any stretch. All I did was look at what the sire and grandsire had form on. Elusive Pimpernel and Selkirk. Both decent good ground flat horses.
You may well be right, in that the actual progeny want it soft.
I just suspect The Devil hasn't hadn't a chance to run on half decent ground.
I'm paying a bit to find out.
I'm not a progeny breeding expert by any stretch. All I did was look at what the sire and grandsire had form on. Elusive Pimpernel and Selkirk. Both decent good ground flat horses.
You may well be right, in that the actual progeny want it soft.
I just suspect The Devil hasn't hadn't a chance to run on half decent ground.
I'm paying a bit to find out.
Yes, it's a weird one. Sometimes the progeny prefer the exact opposite.I hear you, Yorick.
I'm not a progeny breeding expert by any stretch. All I did was look at what the sire and grandsire had form on. Elusive Pimpernel and Selkirk. Both decent good ground flat horses.
You may well be right, in that the actual progeny want it soft.
I just suspect The Devil hasn't hadn't a chance to run on half decent ground.
I'm paying a bit to find out.
Just to give some encouragement, you're not exactly correct with the highlighted comment, Marb; he's won a NH flat race on 'Good/Yielding' so there's a little hint that he might not be totally soft-dependent.
Good luck.
Nice winner.
Cheers. Missed 13/2 last night cos I waited til 8am to get bog. Got 5's though, which is ok. Only just held on by a nose.
Robski123
Amateur Rider
A poster on another forum who is having a real purple patch of late, val dancer in Welsh national bked at 33/1,and Banbridge bked on January 14th 2024 at big prices.He really fancies the devil's coachman tomorrow.I hear you, Yorick.
I'm not a progeny breeding expert by any stretch. All I did was look at what the sire and grandsire had form on. Elusive Pimpernel and Selkirk. Both decent good ground flat horses.
You may well be right, in that the actual progeny want it soft.
I just suspect The Devil hasn't hadn't a chance to run on half decent ground.
I'm paying a bit to find out.
Non runner.
Actually, I've just gone into Irishracing.com and the reason given is:
5. Thedevilscoachman (IRE) (Skin Allergy)
5. Thedevilscoachman (IRE) (Skin Allergy)
Desert Orchid
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All my bets for tomorrow are on now so I'm going to tempt fate and share my figures and thoughts.
Tables are truncated as the full tables take up to much space and I reckon I'll have to do a race per post.
Ch 1.30
Henry’s Friend gave the Hennessy form a big boost the other day and I can see Broadway Boy doing likewise here but he’s a very short price. I’d rather take a chance on Our Power while accepting the possibility of a bounce following his excellent reappearance run.
Tables are truncated as the full tables take up to much space and I reckon I'll have to do a race per post.
Ch 1.30
Horse | OR | MON 162 | Notes | RPR | BO |
Our Power | 144 | 164 | +? | 153 | 7/2 |
Bowtogreatness | 132 | 162 | 158 | 15/2 | |
Broadway Boy | 150 | 160 | p +? nov | 156 | 11/10 |
Cloudy Glen | 145 | 159 | 152 | 6/1 | |
Chantry House | 149 | - | {161o} | - | 10/1 |
Henry’s Friend gave the Hennessy form a big boost the other day and I can see Broadway Boy doing likewise here but he’s a very short price. I’d rather take a chance on Our Power while accepting the possibility of a bounce following his excellent reappearance run.
Desert Orchid
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CH 2.05
In-form Gemirande had more in hand last time but has more on his plate here. Springwell Bay is shorter than I was anticipating but is arguably the percentage call, being a first season novice who can still find more based on his hurdles form. Midnight River has the form to win but is vulnerable to the up and coming novices. I’ll settle for a smallish win bet on the O’Neill horse.
Horse | OR | MON 168 | Notes | RPR | BO |
Midnight River | 148 | 174 | p | 157 | 10/1 |
Springwell Bay | 145 | 171 | ? p nov1 | 161 | 10/3 |
Seddon | 143 | 170 | +? | 154 | 20/1 |
Hitman | 156 | 168 | + | 162 | 14/1 |
Lounge Lizard | 135 | 166 | p | 157 | 14/1 |
Gemirande | 144 | 164 | +p | 164 | 7/2 |
Lisnamult Lad | 137 | 164 | +? nov1 | 158 | 11/1 |
Colonel Harry | 146 | 163 | +p nov | 162 | 4/1 |
Marble Sands | 144 | 163 | p nov | 163 | 12/1 |
In-form Gemirande had more in hand last time but has more on his plate here. Springwell Bay is shorter than I was anticipating but is arguably the percentage call, being a first season novice who can still find more based on his hurdles form. Midnight River has the form to win but is vulnerable to the up and coming novices. I’ll settle for a smallish win bet on the O’Neill horse.
Desert Orchid
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CH 2.40
This is likely to go to one of the second-season novices, of which What A Johnny might be the best candidate so he’s worth a small win bet at around 6/1. I’m also taking the two 33/1 shots bookending the table. Itchy Feet is just too big a price for one that’s top rated (even if he is vulnerable to improvers) and the O’Neills have hit a rich vein of form so it’s possible An Tailliur might leave its current form well behind. I’ll also take him in an ew double with Springwell Bay just in case.
Horse | OR | MON 154 | Notes | RPR | BO |
Itchy Feet | 139 | 153 | | 129 | 33/1 |
What A Johnny | 119 | 152 | s nov | 144 | 6/1 |
One Big Bang | 127 | 151 | v nov | 143 | 11/4 |
Deep Cave | 130 | 150 | ? 158 Fr | 140 | 17/2 |
Catch Him Derry | 124 | 148 | ? p v | 143 | 5/1 |
Strackan | 117 | 148 | p nov | 144 | 5/1 |
Twig | 143 | 147 | p | 142 | 18/1 |
Idefix De Ciergues | 117 | 147 | p nov | 142 | 13/2 |
An Tailliur | 130 | ? | [158] | 126 | 33/1 |
This is likely to go to one of the second-season novices, of which What A Johnny might be the best candidate so he’s worth a small win bet at around 6/1. I’m also taking the two 33/1 shots bookending the table. Itchy Feet is just too big a price for one that’s top rated (even if he is vulnerable to improvers) and the O’Neills have hit a rich vein of form so it’s possible An Tailliur might leave its current form well behind. I’ll also take him in an ew double with Springwell Bay just in case.
Desert Orchid
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CH 3.15
Langer Dan, I have to say, is one hell of a price for where it sits in the ratings. I expect it to outclass this field. It just has to be trying and I can’t see the Skeltons passing up this kind of prize and this kind of price.
Horse | OR | MON | Notes | RPR | BO |
Langer Dan | 160 | 162 | p | 169 | 11/2 |
Gowel Road | 146 | 155 | t | 159 | 8/1 |
Thunder Rock | 149 | 155 | o?? | - | 25/1 |
Golden Ace | 144 | 154 | p nov | 157 | 3/1 |
Lucky Place | 145 | 148 | p | 152 | 7/2 |
Salver | 143 | 146 | nov v | 153 | 5/2 |
Twig | 143 | 156 | |
Langer Dan, I have to say, is one hell of a price for where it sits in the ratings. I expect it to outclass this field. It just has to be trying and I can’t see the Skeltons passing up this kind of prize and this kind of price.
Desert Orchid
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MUS 1.45
I’ve taken 25/1 Bringbackmemories. It’s a course winner over hurdles (this day in its juvenile season) and on the Flat, on which form it could be a good thing.
Horse | OR | MON 142 | Notes | RPR | BO |
Liari | 129 | 139 | 131 | 2/1 | |
Sweet Fantasy | 128 | 139 | s | 131 | 7/2 |
Ballygeary | 120 | 139 | 135 | 8/1 | |
Bringbackmemories | 113 | 138 | 152 Fl | 130 | 25/1 |
Bold Light | 116 | 137 | p | 129 | 13/2 |
Benson | 132 | ? | {148} | 140 | 4/1 |
I’ve taken 25/1 Bringbackmemories. It’s a course winner over hurdles (this day in its juvenile season) and on the Flat, on which form it could be a good thing.
Desert Orchid
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MUS 2.20
I’m going to rwo along with Breizh River since it is top rated and technically a first-season novice. 11/2 seems very fair.
Horse | OR | MON 155 | Notes | RPR | BO |
Breizh River | 133 | 154 | p nov1 | 146 | 11/2 |
Beau Balko | 129 | 152 | p nov? | 151 | 4/1 |
Half Shot | 119 | 152 | 157 | 17/2 | |
Corrigeen Rock | 144 | 151 | 149 | 7/2 | |
Boomslang | 125 | 149 | +p nov | 150 | 4/1 |
High Moon | 118 | 143 | 151 v | 146 | 18/1 |
Indian Louis | 118 | 140 | p | 140 | 20/1 |
Gold Des Bois | 118 | | | 147 | 10/1 |
I’m going to rwo along with Breizh River since it is top rated and technically a first-season novice. 11/2 seems very fair.
Desert Orchid
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Confidence is standing on the window ledge of a top-storey flat with no parachute.
Nearly all of my bets have drifted this morning. BOGs aren't on the day before so even if some of them win I'll feel as though I've lost...
Nearly all of my bets have drifted this morning. BOGs aren't on the day before so even if some of them win I'll feel as though I've lost...
Desert Orchid
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Thanks, guys. I'm only just catching up with the racing having had visitors yesterday and overnight.
It was my only winner, though, so a losing day overall and not the best start to the year.
Not entirely surprised about Langer Dan checking out of his race but I still don't buy the 'spring horse' story. Yesterday just wasn't the day but I've no idea what might be.
It was my only winner, though, so a losing day overall and not the best start to the year.
Not entirely surprised about Langer Dan checking out of his race but I still don't buy the 'spring horse' story. Yesterday just wasn't the day but I've no idea what might be.
Having seen some comments from Dan Skelton (unfortunately not until after the race otherwise I’d never have backed the horse) it seems to me he regards Langer Dan as a spring horse and that’s obviously far more important than what you or I may think. A spring horse he is