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What are you backing Today? Part 2

York 2.10 I fancy the old age pensioner of the field Documenting to run well again. He won over course and distance at York in 2020 off a mark of 95 and he's on 86 now. He has a better strike rate on the all weather but can also perform on turf on a going day.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I was seriously tempted to put this on the 'should be odds-on' thread but discretion has got the better part of valour.

I suspect Outsider and one or two others will agree with me that on Saturday at York the 2.00 race is Blue For You's sole aim for the season. He's hacked up in it the last twice and gets in now a pound lower than last year, and Tudhope comes here when he could have gone to Newmarket for the Bunbury Cup.

It's arguably a better race this time but connections of the others would maybe be as well just to back Blue For You and give their own an easy.
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Yes I agree.there must be something about this race because it's not worth as m7ch as some.
 
ASCO 2:00 CHALK MOUNTAIN 9/1 WIN
YORK 2:10 IT JUST TAKES TIME 22/1 EW
1 X Win Double

In notebook. Zero form study. Daft punt to small stakes, though the win double will return a tidy sum.
 
4 x EW 4/Fold Accas

1.18 Clairefontaine ( FR )
Like Lindy ... 8/1
Waiting For You .. 9/1
x
1.55 Fairview
Zatara Magic ... SP
x
3.55 York
Yokohama ... SP
x
4.20 Ascot
Notimeforchitchat .. 11/2
Meblesh .. 6/1

Sky Bet odds quoted - Paying 4 Places on the 3.55 & 4.20

Chasing some Place money - anything better would be a huge bonus
 
3 Risky ones for me today, but they may well outrun their odds. Small stakes.

ASCO 4:50 REIGNING PROFIT 33/1
Winning this would be an absolute fairy tale for connections (and me to some extent). Looks outclassed, but strictly in a HCPing sense (if all are weighted to be equal), it does love a stiff 5F. Should be a good enough pace on. Small EW.

YORK 5:25 RAATEA 50/1
Yard in top form. Can go Ok fresh. 2nd run since wind op, hood back on. Can ignore Southwell run. The last few years the target has seemed to be a class 2 HCP at Doncaster in Sept. I think it could have won in the noted race at Newmarket last August quite well, which would have maybe seen it get into the Doncaster race last year. Now down to 79, would seem to have a chance at the weights and needs to climb the official ratings ladder if it's to get into this years Doncaster race in September. Small EW

CHES 6:05 LESLEY'S BOY 30/1
My notes for Hamilton run, I had thought it could have run to around 86 off 82. Now down to 78 with a 3lb claimer booked. So looks potentially well in, if my assumptions were correct. Jockey inexperience at Chester is a worry, but is nicely drawn for how it's likely to race. Risk of traffic issues, but kind of hoping the NH jockey is used to fighting for position over the obstacles and won't mind barging his way through if need be. Small EW.


Also done 3 win doubles and a win treble. I'd have done EW doubles and treble, but that wasn't possible for me. Besides, missing a place double isn't going to see me distraught, but missing out on the combined win elements certainly would.

Nothing for tomorrow.
 
RAATEA now a NR. So got extra on the singles and another double now. The TAB were still going 30's for Lesleys's Boy, so stuck my returned win single stake from Raatea on it before they realised what was happening. :)
 
Desert Orchid said:
I was seriously tempted to put this on the 'should be odds-on' thread but discretion has got the better part of valour.

I suspect Outsider and one or two others will agree with me that on Saturday at York the 2.00 race is Blue For You's sole aim for the season. He's hacked up in it the last twice and gets in now a pound lower than last year, and Tudhope comes here when he could have gone to Newmarket for the Bunbury Cup.

It's arguably a better race this time but connections of the others would maybe be as well just to back Blue For You and give their own an easy.
Click to expand...

The market told the story. Did anyone pick up on what Hayley Turner was saying before the race about BFY not wearing the tongue-tie? According to the card I was working from it was declared to wear both a tongue-tie and a visor and I didn't think they were allowed to run if that were to change.

Either way, it was seriously friendless in the market and never put in the race so maybe the Golden Mile is the target after all but this was a right sore one.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I was seriously tempted to put this on the 'should be odds-on' thread but discretion has got the better part of valour.

I suspect Outsider and one or two others will agree with me that on Saturday at York the 2.00 race is Blue For You's sole aim for the season. He's hacked up in it the last twice and gets in now a pound lower than last year, and Tudhope comes here when he could have gone to Newmarket for the Bunbury Cup.

It's arguably a better race this time but connections of the others would maybe be as well just to back Blue For You and give their own an easy.
Click to expand...
I won't put a line through, think I'll check again at Goodwood time.
 
2017diary said:
David O'Meara, the trainer of BLUE FOR YOU (IRE), reported that he had been unable to fit the tongue strap.
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I thought they weren't allowed to run if something like that happened.

I wouldn't put it past O'Meara just to say that to cover the plan not to wear it.

I'd actually have doubts about BFY making the cut at Goodwood and with the weight already published it's not as if today is going to see it dropped in time.

Maybe there's another big race after GW that he could get into off another few pounds lower so that a penalty for GW would mean him running off a negligibly different mark. (That would be right out of the Desert Orchid Manual on Plotting Big Handicap Wins...)
 
2017diary said:
David O'Meara, the trainer of BLUE FOR YOU (IRE), reported that he had been unable to fit the tongue strap.
Click to expand...
One of the pundits on Racing TV said they hadn’t been able to apply the TT before the race and that the trainer had said he wasn’t remotely worried about it not being worn and he’s not run any better with it on. All his wins have been without it. Makes you wonder why he’d been declared with it.

He has been disappointing since his comeback run this season and it is a worry that he was put in the sales at Tattersall's last week - only to be withdrawn.

They don’t seem to know what to do with him at the moment.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I thought they weren't allowed to run if something like that happened.

I wouldn't put it past O'Meara just to say that to cover the plan not to wear it.

I'd actually have doubts about BFY making the cut at Goodwood and with the weight already published it's not as if today is going to see it dropped in time.

Maybe there's another big race after GW that he could get into off another few pounds lower so that a penalty for GW would mean him running off a negligibly different mark. (That would be right out of the Desert Orchid Manual on Plotting Big Handicap Wins...)
Click to expand...
From the equipment code section from the BHA Rules of Racing -

" If a Jockey or Trainer cannot fit the tongue strap: (1) the horse may still run; but (2) if it does not, the financial penalty for non-runners will not apply".

"If a horse declared to run with a Tongue Strap arrives at the start without it, the horse will be allowed to run but the Trainer will be subject to a financial penalty".
 
Dingo Bingo said:
3 Risky ones for me today, but they may well outrun their odds. Small stakes.

ASCO 4:50 REIGNING PROFIT 33/1
Winning this would be an absolute fairy tale for connections (and me to some extent). Looks outclassed, but strictly in a HCPing sense (if all are weighted to be equal), it does love a stiff 5F. Should be a good enough pace on. Small EW.
Also done 3 win doubles and a win treble. I'd have done EW doubles and treble, but that wasn't possible for me. Besides, missing a place double isn't going to see me distraught, but missing out on the combined win elements certainly would.
Click to expand...
Great effort, 2nd at 50/1.

I was on Jakajora - a big fancy. Unfortunately, Jamie Spencer switched the wrong way, right into trouble. Stopped and finished 6th. He'll be in lots of trackers now - can clearly win from this mark.
 
Superb match up between the top two weights in the 3:08 at Perth. There's no value in Luckie Seven at 7/4 but I think he'll come out on top and race should be a great spectacle.

Next up in the 3.43 the market looks too heavily skewed toward the favourite. This would be a walkover for Breizh River 9/1 on last seasons form and on the back of a wind op he might be back near his best.
 

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