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What are you backing Today? Part 2

Yeah, disappointing.

I've done a Minnie Hauk/Scottie/Calandagan treble

Arizona Blaze/Calandagan double

Mythical Composer (newm)/Calandagan double

I quite fancy the French horse next week and already have two rollovers going onto him ante-post.
 
Cracking NH cards today.

The prices in the big one look fairly sound but have found a handful that seem decent value.

Mkt Rsn
2.40 Goblet Of Fire 6/1
3.50 Clean Getaway 28/1
5.00 Fame And Fun 6/1

Cartmel
2.50 Miss Maverick 4/1
4.00 Cuzco Du Mathan 6/1
4.35 Ballydangan 12/1
 
NH_Andy said:
Cracking NH cards today.

The prices in the big one look fairly sound but have found a handful that seem decent value.

Mkt Rsn
2.40 Goblet Of Fire 6/1
3.50 Clean Getaway 28/1
5.00 Fame And Fun 6/1

Cartmel
2.50 Miss Maverick 4/1
4.00 Cuzco Du Mathan 6/1
4.35 Ballydangan 12/1
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I’m not in NH mode at the moment and risk of rain (I see it’s pouring at Market Rasen at the moment) changing the going adds a further complexity to trying to work out the puzzles. However, with the fare elsewhere being less than exciting for a Saturday I did have a little go at it.

Maghlaak 2.05 11/2 (was 9/1 last night). Hasn’t yet transferred his good flat form to this discipline yet, but longer trip should suit. Should find this a bit easier than his last run when up against Al Qareem. Quite fancy this one.
Oslo 2.40 20/1
Mr Saxobeat 3.12 40/1 (Jonathan Burke booking interesting and unlike many of these has decent form on softer going).
Sweet Street 5.00 25/1 Charlie Deutsch’s only ride and he won on it a year ago off 4lb higher, so worth a chance at these odds.
 
REDC 2:18 SHALADAR
Not sure how long 365 held that early 7/1. I managed to get 5/1 on the TAB (plus a bonus 5% from the stupid multiplier) while all UK books are 4's.

Jockey gets a tune out of horse and horse likes the CD. Carries big weights well and never been rated this low.
 
Robski123 said:
Lovely winner m8.followed u in as like the trainer jockey combo,also trust your judgement.
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Nice one Rob.
You never know in maidens whether or not they are trying or just looking for a hcap mark.ran on over 10f last time and dropped back to 9f today.
Absolutely hacked up and that's blown a hcap mark.
 
Guys, am I right in saying a horses flat mark is supposed, (and "supposed" is obviously the operative word here), to equate to 40lbs lower than it's handicap hurdle mark?

I'm seriously considering backing King Of the Bronx tomorrow in the 8 10 at Windsor. This is the horse who sprang a surprise at 200/1 at Gowran Park last season.

He's left Gavin Cromwell's yard and arrives for Anthony Charlton, who I know feck all about, it has to be said... he could be a relative of Jack and Bobby for all I know.

But anyway, the horse is rated 112 over hurdles but only 64 on the flat. I think that might make him potentially well treated for this race tomorrow? On paper he looks a very lively contender anyway.
 
The Fortune Teller said:
Guys, am I right in saying a horses flat mark is supposed, (and "supposed" is obviously the operative word here), to equate to 40lbs lower than it's handicap hurdle mark?

I'm seriously considering backing King Of the Bronx tomorrow in the 8 10 at Windsor. This is the horse who sprang a surprise at 200/1 at Gowran Park last season.

He's left Gavin Cromwell's yard and arrives for Anthony Charlton, who I know feck all about, it has to be said... he could be a relative of Jack and Bobby for all I know.

But anyway, the horse is rated 112 over hurdles but only 64 on the flat. I think that might make him potentially well treated for this race tomorrow? On paper he looks a very lively contender anyway.
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Mick Fitz always said 45 so there's not much leeway.
 
The Fortune Teller said:
Guys, am I right in saying a horses flat mark is supposed, (and "supposed" is obviously the operative word here), to equate to 40lbs lower than it's handicap hurdle mark?

I'm seriously considering backing King Of the Bronx tomorrow in the 8 10 at Windsor. This is the horse who sprang a surprise at 200/1 at Gowran Park last season.

He's left Gavin Cromwell's yard and arrives for Anthony Charlton, who I know feck all about, it has to be said... he could be a relative of Jack and Bobby for all I know.

But anyway, the horse is rated 112 over hurdles but only 64 on the flat. I think that might make him potentially well treated for this race tomorrow? On paper he looks a very lively contender anyway.
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The 40 to 50lbs that gets talked about as the difference between flat and hurdles is just a guide and obviously depends on how a horse jumps and takes to either discipline. There are examples of horses who have had similar ratings at both. Personally, I’ve learnt not to pay too much regard to trying to relate the two, unless the price is big.

Anthony Charlton was a jockey, but most noted as the Trainer who took over from the disgraced Milton Bradley a couple of years ago. I think he may hav3 been assistant before that.

The 112 rating may be a bit suspect as his Irish rating was only 92. Interesting the BHA handicapper has added 20lb to that.

Incidentally, he is entered for a Flat race at Newbury on Thursday over 1m 2f.
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
The 40 to 50lbs that gets talked about as the difference between flat and hurdles is just a guide and obviously depends on how a horse jumps and takes to either discipline. There are examples of horses who have had similar ratings at both. Personally, I’ve learnt not to pay too much regard to trying to relate the two, unless the price is big.

Anthony Charlton was a jockey, but most noted as the Trainer who took over from the disgraced Milton Bradley a couple of years ago. I think he may hav3 been assistant before that.

The 112 rating may be a bit suspect as his Irish rating was only 92. Interesting the BHA handicapper has added 20lb to that.

Incidentally, he is entered for a Flat race at Newbury on Thursday over 1m 2f.
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The 20lb increase is indeed interesting and clearly open to a lot of interpretation. He would have gone up in Ireland aswell as that win over hurdles wouldn't have evaded anybody. 20lb is a lot for sure, you could kind of argue why not 30lbs or 40lbs then. Why just the 20lbs...

I'm going to back him as my gut feeling is the assessor still hasn't got a clue about him really. If the trainer has him right he'll go very close and there'll be no point in messing about on the flat with such a lowly mark of 64.
 
When compiling SF's, I noticed the RP seemed to be 9 stone Flat and 12 stone NH being used as a base, so a 3 stone difference (42lbs). I don't know for sure though, as NH racing isn't my thing, but I think that's the difference they used between them. They also based it on a 100 rated runner on the flat carrying said 9 stone.

There is a class crossover between the disciplines too.
  • Class 2 – Handicaps of rating 0-145+ (100 or 105 flat) 40 - 45lb
  • Class 3 – Handicaps of rating up to 120 or 135 (90 or 95 flat) 30 - 40lb
  • Class 4 – Handicaps of rating up to 100 or 115 (80 or 85 flat) 20 - 30lb
  • Class 5 – Handicaps of rating up to 85 or 95 (70 or 75 flat) 15 - 20lb
  • Class 6 – Entry-level races used for horses in their 1st year or amateur jockeys. (55 - 65 flat)

    So the difference between the disciplines is exagerated the higher up the class ladder you go.


    The above list would suggest the 42lb difference is what is used by the RP (9 stone and 12 stone). As they likely use Class 2 as a base to compile their speed figures in both codes. I suspect it would be similar with the RPR's too, as Topspeed uses those ratings in conjunction with their own.

 
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Outsider said:
Add. Steps in the sand 800 Ball 15/2
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Outsider said:
Pals Battalion 330a 12/1

Pisanello 405a 14/1
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They're both in my book too, though I had vowed to remove Pisanello after last time.
Looks like potentially SFT - HVY ground at Ayr. I'm very undecided. I had decided I wanted GD - GDSFT for Pisanello, but no slower (or firmer).

Shaladar is also entered in the 4:05, after a below expectation performance at Redcar yesterday. Maybe it's going to be a NR, as I notice most of the books have shortend (apart from 365)? Though may well prefer the likely slower ground than it encountered yesterday. Just seems a bit of a trek and it didn't have an easy race yesterday either (looked to have a battle for 4th place and lost). The jockey has a terrible record at Ayr too.

Pals Battalion, looks like the HCPer just has it (but things could fall right). I pulled Reigning Profit from that Thirsk race (noting it needed an uphill gradient). Happy to wait for a little drop in weights for PB where it can get back into a class 4. Will possibly need the rain to stay away too? Has run well on soft before, but that was in class 5's, GD - GDsft seems it's optimum underfoot conditions.

Weather forecasts are suggesting all sorts, from off and on showers this morning, then clearing up, to a bit of a soaking this morning followed by spells of heavy rain during the meeting.

I'll be weather watching with a view to backing Pisanello EW if it doesn't get too soft.

Nice winner yesterday, Outsider. Good call.
 
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Another way of looking at that NH to Flat. is by expressing the weight in lbs for top class horses at 9 stone and 12 stone.

GP1 Flat 126 ( 9 x 14)
GD1 NH 168 (12 x 14)

On the flat the spread is 76 down to a 50 rated. However the jumps would be more, unless it's 11 stone? Which would make an average GD1 NH winner 154 (11 x 14), which, if given the same spread of 76lbs would be from 154 down to 78.

Does that look correct on the NH scene (154 for average top class and 78 for lowest grade)?
9 stone is the middle ground of what a flat horse carries in a HCP (8 - 10 stone), are NH racing weight averages 10 - 12 stone?
 
Have backed Pisanello and I'm being butchered by the TAB. Late scratching of Bowood (30 mins+). Shaladar is still up there. All R4's count with them too. Have just removed it with odds of 17/2 (all other books were much larger (10's - 12's).
I'm just waiting for a drift now, then I'm going to give them a kicking, or myself, either way.
 
Well, I've obtained a price I couldn't have dreamed of last night, even accounting for the fact I've mentioned his name, about King Of The Bronx, and got best odds guaranteed too. While I know drifts can put people off, and even myself at times, I've paid my money, taken my chance. It is just a Monday card at Windsor, and horses running with two and a half legs can't be entirely ruled out. Expect nothing, prey for something, it's one of those. I won't take it too personal if he does nothing.
 
Cartmel bets [Lucky 31]

2.12-Mr Rumbalicious @ 15-2
2.42-Popa Rich @ 8-1
3.45-Bareback Jack @ 4-1
4.20-Cloughroe @ 9-1
4.50-Follow Your Arrow @ 9-2
 
Doesn't look too soft at Ayr. Looks GDsft - GDSFT.
Have had a small EW on Pals Battalion 11/1.
Confidence slightly increased about the chances of Pisanello too.
 
Perhaps a bit too slow for pals battalion. Needs GD - GDsft. Not that it could have beaten the winner (even with a clear run).
Ground looks spot on for Pisanello (if todays the day?). Can't believe the price, was out to 20's a minute ago.
 

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