It's not a million miles away from where I see it in truth Clive. I've mentioned before how we tend to ape things American and I think we're increasingly seeing something along their lines where by we have a right of centre party and centre of right party, which like you note, operates within ever tighter bands of finite distinction.
With the philosophical ground seemingly surrendered this blurring of ideas, should in theory come down increasingly to the cult of the personality, in much the same way as it does in the States, and I half wonder if we aren't at the start of this process (or were in 1997). You don't vote for a party in the States of course, you vote for a candidate etc you never see plackards or T-shirts with the party name emblazoned on it, but rather the candidates names, curiously referred to as a ticket (a phrase we've adopted too from time to time).
The only reason I wonder if I'm wrong, would concern whether we're drawing our influences from Europe instead, and dividing up along the lines of Social Democracy and what is variously called Christian Democracy in some countries. My inclination is that it's an evolutionary process and that we're more likely to be drawing from the other side of the Atlantic. Televised Presidential debates in 10 years?
Which brings me back to the destiny of the Tories? I don't doubt there's some populist right wing agendas they are trying to conceal, and they could make some headway with these electorally, but for every person they appeal, they'll turn off another two, and in any case, there has to be a strong likelihood that those people who such sentiments would chime with, are already voting for them anyway, so the net gain effect would be a loss.
My gut reaction is that they'd be better off pursuing the line that they are, and waiting.
New Tory might have won a landslide in 1997, but to no small extent the old Tories were the architects of their own downfall. In that respect I think the vote was equally reflecting a sense of rejection of the old, as much as it was endorsing the new. Critically though, the new has to be credible to capitalise on the window when it opens. Or to put it another way, good fortune occurs where preparation meets opportunity. New Tory had done the preparatory work, to no small extent the result of the 1980's failurtes and a recognition that without change, they'd be the party of perma-opposition (a similar proposition to what faces the Tories today). They therefore needed only to wait for the wheels to come off.
1992 had demonstrated that sleeze and the poll tax would be forgiven, but with Kinnock at the helm (someone who was still too closely associated with the transitory soul searching of the decade previous), the country wasn't ready.
I think it was Clinton who said "it's the economy stupid" and despite leading us into a second recession in a decade 'the grey man' won. However, the damage was being done. The ravages of the early 1990's after the so called 'Lawson boom' had gone flat, were fresh in the memory. Perhaps more crippling was the ERM fiasco. The Tories for so long the natural custodians of the country's economy and all things business had lost their credibility, they were mortally wounded.
1987 had taught us that people told opinion pollsters one thing (probably they were aware of the immorality of 'high Thatcherism' and didn't want to admit it?). However, when they got into voting booth they did something else!!! "Where there is unity I will bring greed" and none more so then 1987. What it underlined was that so long as people perceived their own individual lot to be protected by the party of power, they would return it, and conveniently overlook the short comings (doubtless telling their friends that they'd voted differently in the process). Dear Bob Worcester was sent off to recalibrate his sampling errors such was the collective lie the electorate was telling.
Which brings me round to what Labour will package as their greatest achievement. Economic management. Once staunch Tory territory I notice from today's Mori Poll that in answer to the question "who would you most trust in an economic crisis" the Brown/ Darling ticket scored 61% with the Cameron/ Osborne axis polling just 22%. These are frankly staggering turn arounds. Indeed, on the 8 issues most pressing amongst the sample (988 adults) Labour enjoys its biggest lead 29% on the headline of "the economy".
With this in mind it's starting to look like the Tories can't win an October election short of a major crisis/ scandal breaking during the campaign. Will they have the bottle to hold their nerve though, and play the long game. If they'd used their sense when under IDS's stewardship, they'd have been able to play the Iraq card today. That they went along with the government was probably understandable in a Tory context. It was poor political judgement (and I said so at the time) but IDS was a prisoner to his party, as much as he himself was to his own military background. Sure he'd have had a couple of uncomfortable years, but my God, I bet they wish now that they could play the "told you so" card? Instead of the "we'd have committed even more".
Which means they're going to have sit on the sidelines I feel, and wait for opportunity to present itself, whilst making the requisite preparations to present a credible alternative when it does. And it will. That means the prudent call would be for more Cameron, more reform, and more broader centrist appeal. Or will the reactionary yeomen of the guard replace him with someone in the mould of the mad mongoose herself? Do they really think they can win elections on issues such as fox hunting?
Their best hopes I think lie in snatching Liberal seats, who I expect to take mullering, and they might escape the crash landing thus. Which returns me to just how important this election is going to be to them.
Their finances are ever more stretched, their membership is dying off, their traditional big donors are just as happy to back either side now (as they fund both parties in the US lets not forget). They'll be a generation coming through before long who won't know what it's like to live under a Tory government (though I'd count that as an advantage to them). People don't naturally like to associate with losers, 4 in a row is starting to look a bit like that. Their traditional media support started drying up in the mid 90's, and has shown little sign of being regained substantially. Their own pool of governmental experience is getting ever lower.
Are we talking about a meltdown? as they say, time waits for no man, and political parties, like philosophies, become obsolete without periodic revision. Is the idea that the old Tory party is just an anathema receding over the horizon into obscurity really so unthinkable in the 21st century. I reckon they'll get two more chances, the first of which already looks to be beyond them. After that who knows?
A lurch to the right (which I feel is a distinct possibility - and one which would possibly involve the development of some schism within the party as it battles for its heart and soul - a looney right!!!) would accelerate this process. But still there needs to be a natural opposition, if we are to avoid elected dictatorship.
:suspect: